I wonder-If Crist wins Florida, could he convince Lieberman and Nelson (D-NE) to bolt the Dems and caucus with the GOP?

November 2 will be a very good night for the GOP, but they will stop just short of winning an outright takeover of the Senate. McConnell will keep his job, Reid will lose his, and we'll see either Durbin or Schumer as the new Senate majority leader. Lieberman (I-CT) will continue to be as pesky to the Dems as ever and they'll probably be rankled even more by the Blue Dogs in their caucus.

But we'll see...

WI, NY & WA: With Thompson, Pataki and Rossi (maybe?) out of these races, the GOP's chance of a pick-up in these states decreases dramatically (no matter what Mr. Rasmussen would like to believe.)

CA: Boxer should be nervous, but unless Campbell is the nominee (and I doubt he'll get it, especially in a GOP primary held THIS year), she should be able to hold her own against Fiorina. Even if Campbell is the nominee, I still have a difficult time seeing him beating Boxer in CA.

OH & MO: The Dems' best pick-up opportunities. They have a better shot at OH than MO though. Both will probably remain close and fairly competitive up through election night. Something tells me that some last-minute attacks by Fisher or Brunner on Portman's Bush admin record will win them the night.

IL: Yes, it's fairly close now, but like CA, I have a hard time seeing the GOP actually following through and winning this seat. The Gov's race is a different story.

ND, FL: Good as gone for the Dems, especially with outside the Beltway politicos running for these seats.

DE & AR: Looking good for the GOP, BUT with the right candidate, the Dems could be competitive later on in the cycle.

IN & NC: Looking good for the GOP now, but keep an eye on these- they could surprise you.

NV: Reid's looking like toast now, but don't count this out yet, if only because he's the Senate Dem leader.

CO, PA, NH: They look good for the GOP, but this could change (especially CO and PA.)

AZ: Surprised to see this one on the list? If McCain loses the primary, this will be one to watch.

The ones to watch:

WI: If Thompson jumps in, it'll be a horse race. If not, it'll be a lot easier for Feingold to get re-elected (not a certainty, but pretty favorable.)

CA: Will the GOP pull it out? My gut says only if they nominate Tom Campbell. However, that's not a certainty, and the CA GOP electorate might not take too kindly to him. If the nominee is Fiorina, Boxer will have an easier, although not certain, chance of re-election.

IL, PA, IN, CO: Potentially volatile races with the potential to go back and forth between now and November. Keep your eyes open. Especially IL and PA.

NV: Will Reid make it? Don't count him out just yet. Although it's looking pretty bleak.

Shaping up to be a fairly interesting election year. The ones to watch (at least right now):

CA, CO, MO, IL, WI, OH, PA, IN and NH.

Once the health care debate has concluded (and it's pretty much over), Congress will take up financial reform. I wonder what effect this will have on the races. My guess, at least at this point, is that it slightly help the Dems, allowing them to hold on to some incumbent seats like CA, WI, CO and PA, and possibly allow for some modest gains in open races (NH, IL, OH and MO.) We'll see though.

If the rumors are true that Charlie Crist might switch to run as an Independent, FL is about to get a lot more interesting...

As of now, I still see Rubio winning that race, but that could change.

The Dems are DOOMED. In addition to the now-certain losses in NV, AR, ND and DE, and the very most-likely losses in CO, IL and PA, we must now add IN to the lean-GOP. Additionally, it could be only a matter of time until WI, CA, WA and BOTH NY seats are teetering on the brink.

At the moment, this is looking to be worse than 1994. Hope that President Obama isn't getting too comfy in the White House- he could soon find himself losing in a landslide to either Palin, Romney or Huckabee.

Hope I'm wrong...

The Dems are DOOMED. In addition to the now-certain losses in NV, AR, ND and DE, and the very most-likely losses in CO, IL and PA, we must now add IN to the lean-GOP. Additionally, it could be only a matter of time until WI, CA, WA and BOTH NY seats are teetering on the brink.

At the moment, this is looking to be worse than 1994. Hope that President Obama isn't getting too comfy in the White House- he could soon find himself losing in a landslide to either Palin, Romney or Huckabee.

Hope I'm wrong...

Getting slightly-ever so slightly-less pessimistic for the Dems in 2010. Here's why:

ND, AR & DE: those are good as gone for the Dems.

However:
NV starting to tighten up, especially when Lt. Gov Krolicki (R), the likely nominee, is added to the mix.

IN: Dan Coats? Really?! Milquetoast vs. Milquetoast, but I have to think that Bayh is slightly more charismatic than Coats (that's not saying much.)

PA: Don't count out Specter just yet.

NH- becoming more of a toss-up again, especially if Ayotte is not the nominee.

Overall, my personal observation is that the Democrats may be getting their second wind. Still expect heavy losses, but we'll see...

Going into 2010, the Democrats are doomed- there's really no other way to put it. Sen. Reid's retirement in NV could help, but at this point, DE, ND, CO, NV and AR look like foregone conclusions.

PA and IL aren't looking great for the Dems, but there is some chance of holding on to them- especially IL, if the Dems run a great campaign.

IN is rapidly becoming a toss-up with the chance of Rep. Pence (R) entering the race. The only thing saving WI is that Tommy Thompson isn't in the race yet, although it could be competitive if he enters. Likewise w/ NY if Pataki enters and CA if Campbell gets more traction.

At this point, I don't expect the GOP to take the Senate, but it is becoming a likelier possibility as we get closer to Nov.

The Dems are DOOMED.

GOP will actually pick up an additional seat or two or three- Joe Lieberman will move to the other side of the aisle. Ben Nelson (NE) might join him, if an additional vulnerable Dem such as Bill Nelson (FL), Mark Begich (AK) or Kay Hagan (NC) join him.

Looking to be a VERY bad year for the Dems.