Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-06-01 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	27
Ind	0
Non	1

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	1

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-5	-9	8	1	9	-9
Rep	+4	+5	+9	0	0	0	11	7	18	+9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	9	38	47
Republican	27	23	50
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
41	30	11

Analysis

Switch WA to GOP (I like Rossi's chances in this climate) and CA to DEM (now assuming Fiorina is the candidate and she's much weaker than Campbell). Firmed Gillibrand in NY, softened up a few other states, but still think most tossups will favor the GOP based on enthusiasm.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

Switched IN SEN from Lean Dem to Lean GOP.

Version: 1

Assuming pro-Republican wave sticks and that CA continues to deteriorate, with blame cascading to Democrats and Boxer getting caught up in it (and a strong fiscal conservative challenge from Campbell).

Version History

Member Comments

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-01 @ 17:54:08
WA??? Really???

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-06-01 @ 19:01:36
The most recent polls have a one point lead for Dem in WA so I can see it as a loss but my gut feeling tells me it will be a toss up all through summer...if they fix the oil spill and economy improves the dems may save a few... however right now both houses are within GOP reach

By: CR (--MO) 2010-06-01 @ 20:53:26
I like this map. A lot. I would be most happy with this on election day.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-01 @ 21:31:13
I wouldn't like this map to be reality on election day...

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-06-02 @ 00:05:50
Murray isn't going to lose; Rossi is 0 for 2 when it comes to major elections. Murray has won all 3 of her past elections with comfortable margins, this year should be no different in Democratic-leaning WA. Toomey isn't going to win because he's to far right for PA, a consistently blue state. Sestak overcame a 38 point deficit to oust Specter; he's obviously a great campaigner. Toomey would be Santorum all over again. Sestak won re-election by 20 points in his Republican-leaning district. I don't think Reid will lose either; the Dems learned from Daschle's defeat so I expect the NV race to heat up and Reid to pull ahead by November. Plus Reid has an astronomical funding advantage; he has more in the bank than Boxer yet he represents a state 14 times smaller than hers. MO isn't going GOP either...you can talk to KS21 about MO!

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:25:33
In Nevada, Reid is going to have his butt pounded by a woman (Lowden or Angle). Once the GOP primary is over, it will be open season on Reid, and he's got a record to exploit. Reid is a big target. I think Murray will win, but it won't be a cakewalk for her. Sestak is clinging to a lead, but he has problems... I mean this map is one where just about everything falls the GOP's way...I've never had the GOP up by 9 seats this year. This would be their dream haul. Missouri should stay GOP.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:26:46
KS21, of course you wouldn't, you continue to keep NC and MO in the Dem column; I don't know why you maintain these positions.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:30:02
Dnul, the economy ain't getting better, the oil spill won't be cleaned up for a while. The Democrats better just pray to God at this point. Although on the lighter side, I'm buying BP stock, I think this oil spill has caused the company to be oversold, I think the price will snap back, and I'll reap a quick profit.

By: nkpatel1279 (D-MA) 2010-06-02 @ 14:32:15
The NV US Senate Race is going to be similar to the 1994 VA US Senate Race between Chuck Robb and Ollie North. Chuck Robb-VA was an unpopular DEM incumbent facing re-election- but his GOP challenger-Ollie North- was just as bad. The Independent or Republican leaning Indepedents voted for the Marshall Coleman-(IND).

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:35:42
NKPATEL1279, who is going to be the Marshall Coleman of the Nevada race?

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2010-06-02 @ 14:36:45
Ollie North was charged with war crimes in the Reagan era, no ethical problems with Lowden.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:41:46
I also think, and I pointed this out earlier regarding the 1994 Virginia Senate race, the establishment GOP was actively working against North. Here, Lowden and Angle will get full support, plus Tea Party support, plus a lot of support outsiders who want to see Reid gone.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-02 @ 14:44:50
Nevada will be a top, if not the top Senate race for the GOP. Think about it, as far as pick up opportunities go, this one is going to become the biggest, because Arkansas, North Dakota, and Indiana, are basically over now, and Nevada is the next most likely pick up that is still competitive.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2010-06-02 @ 16:34:03
He, nkpatel defended Lowden winning on his map yesterday and today he has Reid winning, whatever day he feels like switching Nevada, is the day he defends Nevada.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-02 @ 17:20:25
BC, I explained to you a long time ago my reasoning on NC and MO.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-06-02 @ 17:27:10
Also, it wouldn't bring tears to my eyes if Burr won NC. I really couldn't care less unless the result from NC would allow the GOP to retake the Senate, then I would have a problem with Burr winning. In MO, although I am biased, I stand by my very reasonable logic on how Carnahan could win the seat. Last Edit: 2010-06-03 @ 18:20:48

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-06-03 @ 09:31:58
nkpatel has a future as a politico, even though I still really enjoy nkpatel's analysis.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	49/56	38/56	87/112	77.7%	3	8	561	T	760
2012 Senate	26/33	16/33	42/66	63.6%	3	8	237	T	343
2012 Governor	8/11	6/11	14/22	63.6%	1	132	157	T	228
2011 Governor	2/4	0/4	2/8	25.0%	1	158	100	T	106
2010 Senate	30/37	11/37	41/74	55.4%	3	154	375	T	456
2008 President	50/56	34/56	84/112	75.0%	6	2	382	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	30/52	0/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	150	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	30/49	3/49	33/98	33.7%	1	-	113	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	225/298	108/298	333/596	55.9%