Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-08-06 Version:10

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	12
Rep	24
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-3	-5	-8	9	2	11	-7
Rep	+3	+5	+8	0	-2	-2	11	5	16	+6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	12	38	50
Republican	24	23	47
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
50	30	20

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version History

Member Comments

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-08-06 @ 16:05:29
Nevada!!?? Need I remind you that Reid has been leading angle for the last FIVE polls!?

By: colin (I-ON) 2010-08-06 @ 16:13:22
I'm thinking of switching Nevada back to Angle myself...I don't think she's dead in the water yet. She will possibly survive this initial intense scrutiny and hang on to win.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-08-06 @ 16:15:16
then again the union/dem outpouring from Reid might be more than in most states...toss up lean DEM in my mind...

By: colin (I-ON) 2010-08-06 @ 16:22:08
fair enough dnul...I respect your opinion, although I have decided to switch it back for the time being. His approval numbers, and those of the Democratic controlled Congress are just too weak to lean it his way...despite Angle...we shall see!

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-08-06 @ 16:38:20
"initial intense scrutiny " You mean being forced to be held accountable for past previous statements and positions. All that Reid is throwing at her is what she has said and done. He doesn't have to reach far. Lowden or Tarkanian would have walked away with this race. The fact that Harry is competitive doesnt speak so much to his credit but at her obsurdity. Second Amendment rights to form a militia (Sharron Angle wikipedia "positions" listing Angle is quoted as saying: "What is a little bit disconcerting and concerning is the inability for sporting goods stores to keep ammunition in stock ... That tells me the nation is arming. What are they arming for if it isn't that they are so distrustful of their government? They're afraid they'll have to fight for their liberty in more Second Amendment kinds of ways?" and "That's why I look at this as almost an imperative. If we don't win at the ballot box, what will be the next step?"[58] Please...We haven't seen "intense scruntiny" yet. Last Edit: 2010-08-06 @ 16:43:16

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-08-06 @ 17:21:57
Colin, If I am remembering correctly you are a self proclaim gay member of the GOP. Im sure then you would appreciate Ms Angle's opposition to gay rights which include gay adoptions and in the 1990s calling for a quarantine of people carrying HIV-Aids. In addition to this during her American Independent party days she still maintained that "Sodomites Contaminated the Drinking Water Supply" Oh yeah Im sure she would be a real good friend to the community with statements and positions like that in addition to her philosophy that everyone is secretly arming. Last Edit: 2010-08-06 @ 17:29:21

By: CR (--MO) 2010-08-06 @ 23:32:57
I would like to point out a couple of things on Nevada that we have seen up to this point. First off we know that coming out of the primaries Angle pretty much had no money and Reid had a war chest. He blasted her for weeks and the Angle campaign was unable to control the narrative of the campaign because they didn't have the money so they focused on fund raising. Reid shifted the debate from being about him to her. This was reflected in the polls. Now, Angle has raised more money, actually more than Reid during the last fund raising quarter. Its not as much as Harry's cash on hand but she can start fighting back. I've seen several of her new ads - not bad. She has hired a more experienced and disciplined staff too. I imagine the GOP is saving a lot of ammo for after Labor Day and will attempt to shift the narrative back to Reid who I personally think is a radical himself. But after all this, for as crazy and extreme as Reid and the Democrats have made Angle out to be he's doing no better than competitive in the polls? If I'm reading all the analysis on this board and other sites right its Harry Reid that should be running away with this race now that Sharron won the primary. But he's trapped in a near dead heat with most of the last polls showing his lead only a point or two large, well within the margin of error as colin stated. And this is with an inexperienced outsider challenging a four-term senator who is also the majority party's leader in that chamber. I think we all have to admit that like it or not this is still a race that Sharron Angle can win.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-08-07 @ 00:01:11
Well I was not a Reid fan before Angle. I would not have shed a tear if Lowden had beaten him. I was not per say a "fan" of Lowden but did consider her a mainstream conservative. Angle is by no means "mainstream" Yes its still competitive because Reid's negatives are so high. He is getting the blame for unemployment and foreclosure rates in the state. True, this should not be ignored. However as polling indicated many were ready to toss him out on his ass in a landslide! Until,,,,drum roll.... Sharron Angle won the republican nomination!! Then people actually wanted to know who would replace him. After some of her statements and wacked out social positions starting to hit the airwaves many independents did a "Whoa" who is this woman? Is she really competent enough? Does she really believe all this stuff she is (directly quoted as saying). Reid may be bad in many's minds but is he really calling for people to excersise "Second Ammendment Remedies" Did he ever utter the words..."The unemployed are lazy" "Its not my job as Senator to create jobs" No, some may have disgust for Reid but just can't tolerate Angle as a credible alternative. So what we have seen in this race is a Republican double digit lead in the polls evaporate with one womans nomination. Had Angle or Tarkanian won this race...I'd likely have stayed relatively quiet but with Angle I've turned into a staunch Reid supporter. I doubt Lowden would want to quarantine my friends living with HIV or displace children of Gay couples because "she doesn't agree with sodomites" Last Edit: 2010-08-07 @ 00:04:22

By: CR (--MO) 2010-08-07 @ 18:19:03
I can't speak for Angle on social positions, and no offense to anyone but I don't much care either. Personally I think we have too much going on in the way of the economy, borders, defense, energy, debt and so on to worry much about the social issues. I think that has been the problem for years and if we don't address these other things there may not be much of an America in which to discuss those issues. I don't agree with some of Angle's positions but her stance on the important stuff to me this year is good enough. It may be why Reid is not running away with this as I think he might have in any other year. Couple his high negatives with Angle being okay on things like taxes, spending, and defense and it may just be that Harry is still defeatable in the fall. There is a lot of anger out there and the turnout for either side is going to be key indeed. I know you hate Angle LR. You know I'd prefer Lowden or Tarkanian. But all I have to work with to defeat the radical Harry Reid is Sharron Angle. I don't have much choice. But look at it this way - say she gets elected, what is she going to do? She'll be a freshman senator out of 100 and probably have some low ranking position on some committee. Sharron will sign onto key conservative legislation and any nonsense she may sponsor will go nowhere. We can deal with her in 2016 if necessary. You know I have not seen any of Angle's statements concerning HIV/AIDs and such. Could you maybe post a link to a credible non-bias source such that I might examine them? I would appreciate it.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-08-07 @ 18:40:37
CR all you have to do is Google her name and the word gay hiv or aids and a number of stories come up. She is linked with a group that denies a link between HIV and Aids (a medical fact). Also her positions are linked to a time when she was in the American Independent Party. That party distributed a flier claiming "Sodomites Contaiminated the Drinking Water" I have read a few stories on dailyradar.com online in addition to other sites. The content you are requesting is readily available by simply googling it. Her positions statements and direct quotes are not being warped its out there for the public to see.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-08-07 @ 18:43:52
Angle has no defense. Her HIV/AIDS positions are perfectly clear.

By: CR (--MO) 2010-08-07 @ 18:47:03
Thank you LR, I will check into those. If they are as bad as they seem then Mrs. Angle and I have a disagreement in those areas. But I have a feeling that you already knew that. In truth, I did not know much about Sharron until she was nominated as I thought Lowden or Tarkanian would win somehow. After she won I looked up her positions on five key issues - taxes, spending, defense, energy policy, and states' right/federalism. When she passed all of those for me, she earned my endorsement and support. Plus I really don't like Reid. I wish Sue had won the primary though :(

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-08-07 @ 18:49:34
As do I.....As do I.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	30/37	20/37	50/74	67.6%	10	88	221	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	9	88	91	T	312
2008 President	51/56	42/56	93/112	83.0%	19	1	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	8	1	48	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	4	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	47/52	26/52	73/104	70.2%	14	-	5	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	44/49	26/49	70/98	71.4%	17	-	2		235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	73	1	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	251/278	169/278	420/556	75.5%