PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - dgentile (G-NJ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-09-15 Version:4

Prediction Map
dgentile MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dgentile MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem23
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+5+6-1-1-211617+4
Rep+1+1+2-1-5-610212-4
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic233861
Republican142337
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
422616
piepiepie

Analysis

9/14 The Republican march to madness continues in DE and NH. Meek continues to pick up support and close to tipping point. Lincoln hits on SS, but AR still trending right. Still no Republican plan except give money to the rich, abolish SS, cut aid to states and unemployment benefits, deregulate energy industry, and repeal health care. Not real populist positions. Was anyone except CEOs better off 2 yrs. ago? Anyone really want to go back to 2008 and the policies that put the entire economy on the brink of total collapse? No? That leaves one choice, enthusiastic or not.

3/24 Updated IN, NC, LA,other tweeks.
1/08 Updated CT, ND, KY, FL plus minor tweeks.

Dec. 2009 - Republicans go for all the marbles and lose theirs. This solidifies the Net+3 Dem., w/ KY & NC now tossup.

Looks like Republicans have NY-23 virus and are going down hard (FL,KY). Primary results will determine a lot, but double digit swings from 2008 voting patterns is completely unrealistic. Of the tossup races, NH, OH, MO have been trending Dem.; NV, AR, CO don't have credible challengers, have good organization, incumbency, and plenty of cash. ND and DE seem Republicans best chances. I can't enter percentages, so put me down for Democrats gain 3 seats.

I think a lot of people, and especially some of the more partisan predictions here, are completely misreading the mood of the nation. Backlash against PASSING health care? Every poll shows at least 2/3 of public favor it. Deficits? It is less than a 10% increase from W. even w/ stimulus and a lousy economy. Most of the Republicans running are on record as voting for the huge Reagan/Bush deficits that are now systemic and non-motivating. Republicans are also, every single one, on record against the stimulus while trying to take credit for the cash it has pumped into their states, which isn't going to fly. First debate question, "How much of the stimulus money do you want to return?", good night.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2016 President 42/56 25/56 67/112 59.8% pie 2 26 597T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 1 96 277T362
P 2012 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 2 1 508T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 34 144T343
P 2010 Senate 26/37 16/37 42/74 56.8% pie 4 48 359T456
P 2008 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 12 247T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 29 117T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 3 77 232T465
P 2004 President 46/56 24/56 70/112 62.5% pie 5 76 1629T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 345/394 202/394 547/788 69.4% pie



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