Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-09-26 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	13
Rep	24
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	14
Ind	0
Tos	15
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-2	-4	-6	10	3	13	-6
Rep	+2	+4	+6	0	0	0	10	8	18	+6
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	38	51
Republican	24	23	47
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
50	32	18

Analysis

Realism now, at the end.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Ok a little more realism this time. After all the economy has turned out to continue to collapse rather than improve.

Version: 3

I'm feeling a lot more optimistic due to the rapidly improving economy and the possibility of some form of appearance of some sort of health care bill being passed.

Version History

Member Comments

By: Twindad46 (R-IL) 2010-09-26 @ 22:01:43
I don't think that Giannoulias getting 60% in Illinois is very realistic. Neither is having Blanche Lincoln getting re-elected. Aside from those two errors, your map is quite plausible.

By: CR (--MO) 2010-09-26 @ 23:13:04
I like Governor Jindal. Bobby is a good man. Be a great VP pick for John Thune in 2012.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-09-26 @ 23:18:56
LOL Jindal is nothing more than a greedy hypocrite.

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-09-26 @ 23:21:25
"Bobby is a good man." You don't live in LA, CR. Its because of Jindal's policies that LSU is having to cut 35% of its budget. Most of my professors can't stand him. I'm on a scholarship here. If things get really bad and Jindal cuts even more of LSU's budget, I could lose my scholarship.

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-09-27 @ 00:35:06
The Republicans down here are the George W Bush "conservatives" who spend on wasteful stuff. I have 2 uncles, Chris Hazel and Nick Larusso, in the State Legislature; they're both Republican hacks. They'll gladly spend on stuff like gun programs and tobacco subsides, but when it comes to education, they're budget hawks all of the sudden. The true fiscal conservatives down here are the Dixiecrats. Thats why they're so popular in Arkansas. I wish Kathleen Blanco had run for a second term as governor. We'd still be in bad shape, but we wouldn't be cutting nearly as much. Again, CR, if LSU can't afford for me to keep my scholarship next year,...we have Jindal to blame. After all, he's such a "good man." ;) If the great Kingfish Huey Long saw the sad state of LA politics today, he'd be very disappointed. Last Edit: 2010-09-27 @ 01:05:29

By: CR (--MO) 2010-09-27 @ 02:48:27
I am sorry to hear about your educational troubles Miles and I really hope you are able to keep your scholarship. I myself went to school through loans, fellowships, and working. And while I don't know much about Louisiana's educational system if its anything like Missouri's I'm willing to bet it never has enough money, year after year. It really is sad that wasteful spending on so many government programs over the years has forced us into such a difficult situation. But that is where we are and we need leaders who are willing to make the tough choices that will force us to live within our means. I don't blame Governor Jindal for trying to fix a mess caused by decades of spending. Its not easy to be in situations like that. I'd be grateful to have Bobby as our governor because he is as I said a good man.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-09-27 @ 07:11:35
Miles, hope it all works out educationally speaking and I appreciate your references to populists of the past...

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-09-27 @ 07:45:37
"They'll gladly spend on stuff like gun programs and tobacco subsides, but when it comes to education, they're budget hawks all of the sudden." It's sickening. The same is true here in Kansas.

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-09-27 @ 13:30:58
CR, In all likelihood, I'll keep my scholarship, unless the budget situation gets very bad. However, if I were applying at LSU this year, they probably wouldn't have offered me as a big a scholarship as I got due to the poor budget. Jindal does seem to be a good guy at the personal level. My aunt and his wife are friends and he does seem like a decent guy. I just can't agree with his political choices. KS, Yes it is very sickening how the gun and tobacco lobby owns most southern Republicans. The problem is that most Democrats, especially in New Orleans, are just as slimy. Mayor Mitch Landerieu is probably the least corrupt. He took office in May and he tried to build a 'honest team.' As of this week, he has already fired two of his officials for corruption. Its sad. Both parties are very corrupt down here. Bill Jefferson was pretty much a typical New Orleans Democrat. The Democrats/Dixiecrats have been in power down here for so long that they've become associated with corruption more than the GOP has. Jindal argues that in LA, the Republicans are the 'party of change' but I don't buy it. dnul, Huey Long is one of my all-time favorite politicians. Now there was a true socialist! I guarantee you that if he weren't assassinated in 1935, he would have become president. He would have probably challenged FDR in 1940 or Truman in 1944. Long probably could have beaten Truman in the primary. The modern-day equivalent of Long would be someone like Alan Grayson or Bill Halter. Long's Senate seat is now held by Mary Landrieu; while she's much less populist than him, I'm glad its still in Democratic hands. Last Edit: 2010-09-27 @ 13:32:28

By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-09-27 @ 13:31:34
ahhh...Louisiana politics is very interesting.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-09-27 @ 16:52:40
Louisiana is different, that's for sure.

By: CR (--MO) 2010-09-27 @ 20:52:48
Well I can at least respect your opinions and differences Miles. Best of luck to you again with your studies. I know I'm glad to be done with school, the minute I got that Chemistry degree I was gone! Actually it wasn't all that bad, I like learning but I'm glad the exam-fests are over, lol. And for the record I like Louisiana.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2014 Senate
2012 President	56/56	48/56	104/112	92.9%	10	15	13	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	14/33	45/66	68.2%	1	36	198	T	343
2010 Senate	32/37	18/37	50/74	67.6%	5	37	221	T	456
2008 President	48/56	35/56	83/112	74.1%	27	5	404	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	13/33	46/66	69.7%	2	25	227	T	407
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	4	0	156	T	465
2004 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	22	5	219	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	285/304	183/304	468/608	77.0%