PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - redcommander (R-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-25 Version:30

Prediction Map
redcommander MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
redcommander MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep27
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-5-5-10729-10
Rep+5+5+1000010717+10
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic93847
Republican272350
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
563323
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 23

If Murkowski runs on the Libertarian line. Otherwise if she wins the Republican primary on absentee ballots, solid Republican.


Version: 21

Republicans seem to love to be shooting themselves in the foot this election cycle. Harry Reid will narrowly pull through because Angle is a dangerous person who needs to stay as far away from senate as possible. With some help from Clinton, I could see Lincoln narrowly pulling off a win, and Vitter going down in Lousiana. Conlin is an excellent candidate who is a great fit for Iowa's electorate. Plus Grassley has been in there way too long so I could see her pulling off an upset. Marshall is well-positioned in North Carolina, and West Virginia is safely Democrat. No way Manchin is going down against someone like Maese instead of someone with more political experience like Ireland or Capito. So the Democrats keep the senate by a slightly less comfortable margin.


Version: 14

If Tom Campbell loses the primary to Fiorina, then he runs as an independent and wins the senate seat in California. Control of the senate would still go to Republicans as he would caucus with then.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 33/37 23/37 56/74 75.7% pie 30 8 116T456
P 2010 Governor 28/37 21/37 49/74 66.2% pie 15 66 179T312
Aggregate Predictions 61/74 44/74 105/148 70.9% pie



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