Date of Prediction: 2010-10-25 Version:30
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
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Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 74)
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Version: 23 If Murkowski runs on the Libertarian line. Otherwise if she wins the Republican primary on absentee ballots, solid Republican. Version: 21 Republicans seem to love to be shooting themselves in the foot this election cycle. Harry Reid will narrowly pull through because Angle is a dangerous person who needs to stay as far away from senate as possible. With some help from Clinton, I could see Lincoln narrowly pulling off a win, and Vitter going down in Lousiana. Conlin is an excellent candidate who is a great fit for Iowa's electorate. Plus Grassley has been in there way too long so I could see her pulling off an upset. Marshall is well-positioned in North Carolina, and West Virginia is safely Democrat. No way Manchin is going down against someone like Maese instead of someone with more political experience like Ireland or Capito. So the Democrats keep the senate by a slightly less comfortable margin. Version: 14 If Tom Campbell loses the primary to Fiorina, then he runs as an independent and wins the senate seat in California. Control of the senate would still go to Republicans as he would caucus with then.
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