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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-30 Version:2
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 74)
Analysis
I won't comment on every change in my predictions, just the most striking change. When I made my previous prediction, I had thought O'Donnell might be able to catch lighting in a bottle to make it close, but it's clear now that she will not strike lightning twice so I'm moving Coons from a 40% tossup to 50% strong.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 1 Largely follows the polls, except in Illinois. I think that as Election Day nears, the support for the Green party candidate there will fade, with a significant portion holding their noses and voting Democratic to prevent any chance a GOP takeover of the Senate.
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