PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - jjnolla (R-PR) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-31 Version:4

Prediction Map
jjnolla MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
jjnolla MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep28
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep25
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-5-5-10729-10
Rep+5+5+1000010818+10
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic93847
Republican282351
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
38326
piepiepie

Analysis

In Alaska, I see Murkowski winning by a small margin.
Washington and California are still tossups, but if there's a wave coming in from the East Coast and its evident from the very early returns, they could end up in the "R" column.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 1

The Democrats will have a lot of trouble with the seats now held by caretakers, like Obama's in IL, Biden's in DE, Clinton's in NY (the other NY seat is safe D), Salazar's in CO.
Other states like IN and AR are tilting Republican because of their generally pro-GOP leaninds (Obama's victory in Indiana was the result of an ineffective campaign by the GOP).
If the political environment that we saw in Massachusetts holds all the way to November, we could even see the GOP carry additional seats that seem safely on the Democratic column (Wisconsin, Washington and even California).
The outcome in Connecticut depends on the GOP candidates making a strong campaign and differentiating the state issues in which the Democratic candidate wins as AG from the federal issues applicable to a Senate race.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2018 Senate 31/35 15/35 46/70 65.7% pie 2 19 362T483
P 2016 President 50/56 33/56 83/112 74.1% pie 2 52 114T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 17/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 64 120T362
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 221 8T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 10/36 45/72 62.5% pie 2 21 282T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 1 21 123T300
P 2012 President 50/56 37/56 87/112 77.7% pie 1 350 561T760
P 2010 Senate 32/37 6/37 38/74 51.4% pie 4 2 408T456
P 2010 Governor 23/37 8/37 31/74 41.9% pie 1 47 290T312
P 2006 U.S. Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 2 122 445T465
P 2006 Governor 22/36 12/36 34/72 47.2% pie 1 122 297T312
P 2004 President 48/56 31/56 79/112 70.5% pie 1 10 1285T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 378/455 197/455 575/910 63.2% pie



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