PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - HarryHayfield (G-GBR) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-31 Version:3

Prediction Map
HarryHayfield MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
HarryHayfield MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem6
 
pie
Rep29
 
Ind2
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem6
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-9-4-13336-13
Rep+9+4+130-2-210616+11
Ind0+2+2000000+2


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic63844
Republican292352
Independent224
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
402713
piepiepie

Analysis

Republicans take control of the Senate with 11 gains, GOP take control of the House with 55 - 60 gains


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: HarryHayfield (G-GBR) 2010-11-03 @ 06:20:55 prediction Map
Based on the New York Times map (with three still to call) I got seven states wrong (NV, OR, IL, NY, NY (S), FL, WV)

 By: HarryHayfield (G-GBR) 2010-11-03 @ 18:36:48 prediction Map
eight wrong (CO stays Dem)

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-03 @ 18:37:49 prediction Map
Why did you have Mikulski losing in MD?

She was as safe as Schumer.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-03 @ 18:40:11 prediction Map
If it makes you feel any better, your House prediction was much better than mine :)

I had the GOP picking up only 44 seats.

 By: HarryHayfield (G-GBR) 2010-11-05 @ 13:59:28 prediction Map
Nine wrong (WA stays Dem)

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-24 @ 19:20:21 prediction Map
This is a very strange map.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-24 @ 23:59:00 prediction Map
Milkulski losing in Maryland and Wyden in Oregon make it pure comedy.

Mulkulski won with well over 60% Wyden came close to 60% trouncing his opponent by strong double digits.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 476
P 2016 President 52/56 30/56 82/112 73.2% pie 14 0 149T678
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 0 72T112
P 2014 Senate 34/36 16/36 50/72 69.4% pie 2 1 217T382
P 2014 Governor 27/36 13/36 40/72 55.6% pie 2 1 241T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 11 98T153
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 18 1 401T760
P 2012 Senate 22/33 6/33 28/66 42.4% pie 1 267 334T343
P 2012 Governor 8/11 2/11 10/22 45.5% pie 1 30 220228
P 2012 Rep Primary 41/52 12/52 53/104 51.0% pie 48 - 64T231
P 2011 Governor 2/4 0/4 2/8 25.0% pie 1 33 100T106
P 2010 Senate 27/37 13/37 40/74 54.1% pie 3 2 391T456
P 2010 Governor 28/37 14/37 42/74 56.8% pie 3 2 230T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 1 41T103
P 2008 President 52/56 30/56 82/112 73.2% pie 22 0 442T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 11/33 41/66 62.1% pie 2 8 334T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 5/11 16/22 72.7% pie 1 47 152T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 27/52 8/52 35/104 33.7% pie 33 - 127T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 15/49 56/98 57.1% pie 32 - 21T235
P 2007 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 65 155T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 12/33 43/66 65.2% pie 7 1 328T465
P 2006 Governor 25/36 7/36 32/72 44.4% pie 3 26 301T312
P 2004 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 16 1 283T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 571/694 272/694 843/1388 60.7% pie



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