AK - I dont see the winner surpassing 40%. Could even be a DEM, we'll see.

NH - Hodes is cooked.

MO - New poll from PPP shows R+5...changed to toss-up confidence.

PA - moved to LEAN dem. Polls are confirming movement for Sestak. Sestak is a good closer - very good ads on tv! I always thought he would win.

NC - switched from DEM to GOP. Polls are showing Burr getting stronger. I can't see a DEM win here, oh well.

OH - switched from DEM to GOP. I still see a tossup, but I feel a better chance for a GOP hold than a DEM pickup.

FL - thanks to Meek (who was the better DEM candidate in the primary), he is pulling votes from Crist, and it seems like Rubio will win handily now.

CA - Boxer is pulling away - strong DEM now.

For some reason the site registered my prediction as IND-DE win. I was that lone vote for a while :). I regenerated my map.

New poll in AR shows that it is a strong GOP pickup. Moved that to strong GOP confidence.

WA is definitely a strong DEM hold. Moved the confidence accordingly.

SC I didnt have a confidence for some reason. Strong GOP of course.

I am losing confidence in a DEM pickup in NC. As such I have put it back in the GOP column.

Too many other minor changes with confidences to note.

DE - With O'Donnell winning this should now be a DEM hold. I put it at a DEM-lean as I will wait for post-primary polling

PA - I still think Sestak will pull it out, but I dropped this to tossup since there is not polling to suggest this.

KY - same thing as with PA.

FL - changed to tossup since recent polling shows no concrete lead for Crist to suggest this is a strong-IND.

NH - As I read, Ayotte only polls one point better than Lamontagne, both of whom I can see losing to Hodes. Will wait to see result in primary and post-primary polling before I change my prediction.

Biggest change I made was Missouri. Carnahan is officially toast. Until I see polling to indicate otherwise, I just don't see her winning the seat now. If Democrats (hopefully) learned anything from Virginia in 2009 it is that running away from the party's core principles is a failure. That is exactly what Carnahan is doing by saying she supports extending the Bush Tax Cuts...she is running away from Obama who says we should let them expire (which is what most of America wants). Just like Creigh Deeds in 2009, Carnahan is toast.

CO - I thought Romanoff was the stronger DEM candidate, similarly I thought Norton was the stronger GOP candidate. With the two weaker candidates facing off I am sticking with the incumbent.

KY - I have now moved this to lean DEM. All the recent junk that has come out against Paul, and the recent poll from Braun Research showing a 10 point jump into the lead for Conway from the previous polling data has me believing Conway will win.

CA and WI - I still think Boxer and Feingold will win, just the recent polling showing small leads made me drop the confidence from STRONG to LEAN.

PA - I dropped the confidence to lean on Sestak too. I still think he wins, just the polling right now says otherwise. But if we learned anything from the democratic primary, Sestak can overcome a 20 point deficit, and he doesn't start his heavy ad-buys until the last month. So I take the current polling with a very light grain of salt.

Changes:
WV - added this to my prediction. Strong DEM. Manchin in a shoe-in.

AK - moved to strong GOP. Not sure why it wasn't there before. The Tea Party, Palin-backed candidate has no chance in the primary, and the DEM's have no one...unless Gravel comes out of retirement (ha!)

I was unaware that the DE primary is in September, nor did I know that there is a serious challenger in the hardcore conservative, Tea Party backed Christine O'Donnell. If Castle can escape from the primary I think DE goes republican. If Christine O'Donnell somehow manages to win, I can see DE going democratic. See you in September!

Sharon Angle is tanking fast - hell, even Rand Paul thinks she will lose. Probably by next update I will have NV as Strong DEM. Ditto for Mark Kirk in IL.
Rand Paul's and Burr's polling numbers are dropping fast too. Might have a lean-DEM in KY and NC next update.

Waiting to see some more polling in OH, MO and NH to declare confidence. I'm leaning DEM in OH and NH and GOP in MO. But we shall see...

Changes:
NV from tossup to lean dem. The nomination of Angle is probably the best thing that ever happened to Harry Reid.

PA to 50% (from 60%)...was a mistake. Never thought Sestak had a chance at 60, just forgot to change it in the last revision.

IL to lean dem. Mark Kirk is tanking with all the crap that keeps coming out about him. In any purple state it wouldn't matter, but IL is a hardcore blue state.

FL to str IND, and dropped it to 40%. I think meeks and rubio will pull enough of the vote where Crist wins with only 40%. And the polls are certainly moving in Crist's favor with his recent shift to the left.

AR to lean rep. Not that I thought Halter would have won in this state (although he was the more electable candidate), Lincoln has pretty much no shot.

AZ to lean rep, and dropped it to 50%. I dont think Hayworth can win in the primary. So I expect McCain to win, just I think he will come out of this primary being viewed as a hardcore right winger, not to mention all the damage he will incur from the negative ads. Still think McCain wins in November, just in a nail biter.

UT - If Bennett wins via write-in, what party is he? Ind with republican caucusing?? In a normal year the GOP should win with like 70+% of the vote, but with Bennett's write-in campain I see only a 50+% win.

FL - Kendrick Meek is tanking with his recent crap, and Crist is still popular. Rubio is too far right for the state. I see Crist winning as Meek continues to tank in the polls.

PA - Two sided move towards strong DEM. Sestak isnt Specter and Toomey is wayyyy too far right for this state (I am a PA resident)

NC - Burr continues to show very poor favorables. Once the DEMs choose their candidate in the runoff I expect to see the polling to favor the DEM candidate.

KY - Rand Paul is way too far right, and Conway will have the grassroots behind him (wouldn't have been the case with bluedogish Mongiardo). Tossup for now, but I see a DEM victory here.

ND - no name recognition on the DEM side. Easy GOP pickup.

IA - still see GOP victory, but dropped confidence as Grassley favorables have dropped a bit.

NY-S - raised confidence. Gillibrand is a very strong candidate.

IL - Polls have shown tossup. Still see a DEM victory in this blue state, but polls are flip flopping each way and Kirk is a strong GOP candidate.

CO - Polls have shown both primary candidates as winners, but I have to wait to see the primary to see if I want to move this to lean DEM confidence. Still a tossup for now.

AZ - need to see the GOP primary. If Heyworth wins the primary, there might inclination to make this tossup with proper polling info. With McCain, should be a strong GOP win.

NV - Lowden is wak. So to is Reid, but he is the stronger of the two.

MO/OH - pretty much the same deal. I think we need some polling, but I like DEM chances in both states.