Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:281

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	16
Rep	21
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-2	-2	-4	10	5	15	-3
Rep	+2	+2	+4	0	-1	-1	10	7	17	+3
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	16	38	54
Republican	21	23	44
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	34	15

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 110

Dems lose 4 seats which is typical for the party in power to lose, with NH,CO,OH being the tie breaker

Version: 103

Tossup: CO,OH,NV,and NH

Version: 99

projections

NH 51-49D
OH 52-47D
PA 54-46D
CO 51-49D

NV 52-44GOP
Del 55-45GOP
IND 55-45GOP
ND total wipe out

56-44D
232D-203R
26D-24R

Version: 96

Most competetive OH,NH,PA,CO

net lose 4 seats

Version: 95

NH,OH,NV,IN,Del,ND,ARK changes hands

56D44R

NV,CO,PA,OH,MO,NH,and FL tossups

Version: 94

NH,OH,PA,CO goes dem
IN,NV,ND,ARK,Del goes GOP

56D-44R

Version: 93

57D43R

Version: 89

Again partisan index gives prevelance to weight of candidacy and I do believe in OH,CO and NH the Dems have a distinct registration advantage.

Version: 88

Lee Fisher,Romanoff,and Ellsworth win their respective races

56D-44R

Version: 87

D's net lose 2 seats

Version: 85

Dems via NH,OH,MO,CO
GOP via IN,NV,ARK,Del,ND

Version: 82

Hodes,LeeFisher,Carnahan and Romanoff win their seats
Lowden,Castle,Coats and Hoeven wins.
Subtract 2 seats

57D-43R

Version: 81

NH,CO,MO,IN are ours and OH and FL moves rightward

Net lose 2 seats.

Version: 79

Tossups WI,IL,IN,MO,OH,PA,CO,NV

Version: 78

Our strongest candidates are Carnahan,Ellsworth,Reid and Giannoulias in the tossup races.

A net loss of 4 seats for the Dems

55-45D control.

Version: 77

56-44 senate majority

Version: 74

52-48 majority for the Senate D's

Version: 72

Specter and Reid and Giannoulias survives the Republican trend.

Big surprise of the night Bayh is gone!!!

Version: 71

Bayh,Bennet,Reid,Lincoln,and ND all fall to the GOP

Version: 55

GOP will have between 41-45 seats.

Version: 53

Exactly 57 with OH and PA making up the difference.

Version: 47

Reid, Bennet,and ND goes republican
The rest, I'm undecided about

Version: 45

NV: Reid wins 52-47
OH: Lee Fisher 48-45
MO: Carnahan 49-47

CO: Norton wins
ND: Hoeven wins 60-40
ARK: Baker wins.

MA special election Coakley wins 52-47

Version: 44

Dems lose ARK,CO and ND
Pure tossups NH,OH, and MO and NV

Version: 41

0-2 net lose for the d's

Version: 38

Dorgan's seat goes to Hoeven
Reid's seat goes to Lowden
Dodd's seat goes to R's

Version: 34

Net pickup of 1 seat MO and NH while losing Bennet

Version: 33

Tea party gain minimum amont of seats due to the low retirements on the democratic side.

Version: 32

Inc in the most jeoporady is Senate Maj Leader Reid.

The rest wins plus MO and OH goes Democratic.
Net pickup of about 1 to 2 seats.

Version: 31

Tea party has some appeal but not to every sector of the country.

No net gain of seats

Version: 30

Lincoln,Dodd, and Bennet all loses
Fisher, Hodes, and Carnahan all win

Wash in the Senate, D retain 60 vote margin.

2012, looking at ME and CT for possible pickups.

Version: 29

New Freshmen 59-41
Illinois(Alexi)
Pennsylvania (Sestak)
Ohio (Lee Fisher)
New Hamsphire (Paul Hodes)

Florida (Crist)
Nevada (Lowden)
Kentucky (Grayson)
Conneticuit (Simmons)
Colorado (Norton)

Version: 26

Version: 14

Dems net lose 1 seat

Version: 12

Dems pickup the Buckeye state. Net gain 1 seat

Version: 11

Dems pickup of 1 seat OH 61-39

Version: 9

TUPs: CO,NH,OH,MO,DEL

61 votes for the Dems

Version: 6

61-39 Dem adv

Version: 1

Dems pickup a couple of seats offset by Del.

Version History

Member Comments

By: cwech (D-WA) 2010-11-02 @ 01:32:49
I sure hope you're right about Alaska. I also hope you're wrong about Wisconsin, but I appear to be the last remaining Feingold believer in the country. We might also be the two most optimistic Democrats on this site.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	25	22	108	T	115
2022 Senate	25/35	12/35	37/70	52.9%	271	0	298	T	305
2022 Governor	27/36	14/36	41/72	56.9%	281	0	265	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	11	41	48	T	118
2020 President	45/56	26/56	71/112	63.4%	443	5	670	T	684
2020 Senate	24/35	8/35	32/70	45.7%	339	3	422		423
2020 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	127	5	264	T	293
2019 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	61	4	104	T	192
2018 Senate	28/35	15/35	43/70	61.4%	201	1	417	T	483
2018 Governor	29/36	13/36	42/72	58.3%	212	3	330	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	99	98	T	149
2016 President	47/56	20/56	67/112	59.8%	337	3	597	T	678
2016 Senate	26/34	12/34	38/68	55.9%	344	2	352	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	5/12	12/24	50.0%	127	3	164	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	1/3	3/6	50.0%	72	0	57	T	112
2014 Senate	28/36	12/36	40/72	55.6%	435	0	337	T	382
2014 Governor	25/36	6/36	31/72	43.1%	402	0	293	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	19	1	98	T	153
2012 President	55/56	25/56	80/112	71.4%	291	1	681	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	19/33	50/66	75.8%	171	1	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	4/11	15/22	68.2%	103	1	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	29/52	8/52	37/104	35.6%	116	-	121	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	18	186	12	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	15/37	49/74	66.2%	281	1	242	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	8/37	42/74	56.8%	280	1	230	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	26	40	56	T	103
2008 President	52/56	29/56	81/112	72.3%	129	1	474	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	16/33	49/66	74.2%	95	1	144	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	39	3	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	47/52	20/52	67/104	64.4%	55	-	23	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	39/49	14/49	53/98	54.1%	23	-	36	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	8	24	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	24/33	57/66	86.4%	117	0	20	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	114	0	10	T	312
2004 President	51/56	31/56	82/112	73.2%	167	1	1036	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	833/994	407/994	1240/1988	62.4%