Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:7

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	12
Rep	24
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	10
Rep	19
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-3	-7	8	4	12	-7
Rep	+4	+3	+7	0	-1	-1	10	7	17	+6
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	12	38	50
Republican	24	23	47
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
57	34	23

Analysis

NV is not a naturally Dem state - and they have the highest unemployment rate. So, Reid will get booted.

I give IL becuase of the Demcoratic machinery there. But it could still go wrong!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 6

This can still change...

Version: 5

The situation is highly fluid, and this can still change!

1. PA - historically, the GOP has done well with senate seats in this state. Given the levels of dissatisfaction with the Dems, I predict a GOP pick-up. However, it could be closer than we think.

2. DE - classic case of shooting yourself in the foot! Dem hold.

3. WI - the polls look bad for Feingold - but not disasterous. Incumbency counts & so too does the Dem tilt of the state - he pulls it off - just.

4. IL - both cnadidates have made a mess of things & Blago not help Dems. But Dem tilt of IL keeps it Blue (or red on this website)

5. KY & MO - depsite good Dem candidates, they are operasting in GOP leaning states & in a GOP year. Simple.

6. FL - this year has been a mixed bag, full of twists and turns. This can still change. But as of the moment, Crist & Meek split anti Rubio vote.

7. NV - Reid is like a Phoenix, rising from the ashes.

8. CA, OR, WA - polls show closer races than expected, but Dem tilt keeps them in check.

9. AK - 3 way split merely reduces the size of the GOP majority.

Version: 3

Watch out for PA...

Version: 2

What do you think?

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	2	36	182	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	9/33	39/66	59.1%	1	36	268	T	343
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	1	100	2	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	7	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	6	1	106	T	312
2008 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	31	1	219	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	4	2	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	2	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	16/52	0/52	16/104	15.4%	1	-	211	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	1	37	299	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	14/36	50/72	69.4%	3	16	132	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	336/388	190/388	526/776	67.8%

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