Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	8
Rep	23
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	10	8	18	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats Democratic 11 38 49 Republican 26 23 49 Independent 0 2 2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
61	34	27

Analysis

I think this could be the map, though my percentages aren't 100% in NY(S), Washington, and West Virginia.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 125

I'm trying to get as few undecided seats as possible. The toss-ups are the only ones I think could flip at this point.

Version: 124

WV, CA, WA, and CO are the closest races of this election, and could all go either way.

Version: 122

I feel pretty comfortable with this map. The only state that may change is Alaska.

Version: 119

Alabama
Richard Shelby: 66%
William Barnes: 32%

Alaska
Lisa Murkowski: 35%
Joe Miller: 34%
Scott McAdams: 31%

Arizona
John McCain: 63%
Rodney Glassman: 35%

Arkansas
John Boozman: 55%
Blanche Lincoln: 44%

California
Barbara Boxer: 49%
Carly Fiorina: 48%

Colorado
Ken Buck: 50%
Michael Bennett: 48%

Connecticut
Richard Blumenthal: 51%
Linda McMahon: 48%

Delaware
Chris Coons: 57%
Christine O'Donnell: 42%

Florida
Marco Rubio: 43%
Charlie Crist: 33%
Kendrick Meek: 23%

Georgia
Johnny Isakson: 59%
Michael Thurmond: 39%

Hawaii
Daniel Inouye: 64%
Cam Cavasso: 35%

Idaho
Mike Crapo: 78%
Tom Sullivan: 21%

Illinois
Mark Kirk: 47%
Alexi Giannoulias: 44%
LeAlan Jones: 6%

Indiana
Dan Coats: 56%
Brad Ellsworth: 43%

Iowa
Chuck Grassley: 64%
Roxanne Conlin: 35%

Kansas
Jerry Moran: 69%
Lisa Johnston: 30%

Kentucky
Rand Paul: 52%
Jack Conway: 47%

Louisiana
David Vitter: 57%
Charlie Melancon: 42%

Maryland
Barbara Mikulski: 57%
Eric Wargotz: 42%

Missouri
Roy Blunt: 52%
Robin Carnahan: 46%

Nevada
Sharon Angle: 48%
Harry Reid: 45%
NOTA: 4%

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte: 53%
Paul Hodes: 45%

New York
Chuck Schumer: 67%
Jay Townsend: 32%

New York(Special)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 58%
Joe DioGuardi: 41%

North Carolina
Richard Burr: 54%
Elaine Marshall: 44%

North Dakota
John Hoevan: 73%
Tracy Potter: 25%

Ohio
Rob Portman: 61%
Lee Fisher: 38%

Oklahoma
Tom Coburn: 72%
Jim Rogers: 23%

Oregon
Ron Wyden: 58%
Jim Huffman: 40%

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey: 50%
Joe Sestak: 48%

South Carolina
Jim Demint: 72%
Alvin Greene: 22%

South Dakota
John Thune: 100%

Utah
Mike Lee: 66%
Sam Grantao: 33%

Vermont
Patrick Leahy: 66%
Len Britton: 32%

Washington
Patty Murray: 50%
Dino Rossi: 49%

West Virginia
John Raese: 51%
Joe Mancin: 47%

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson: 52%
Russ Feingold: 47%

Big gainers from last prediction: Cam Cavasso, Kirsten Gillibrand, ,Russ Feingold, Rob Portman, Joe Sestak

Version: 112

I'm gradually moving to best case scenario for Democrats...

Version: 111

Well, we're getting close enough to where I'll start making actual number predictions from time to time...

Alabama
Richard Shelby: 67%
William Barnes: 31%

Alaska
Joe Miller: 38%
Lisa Murkowski: 35%
Scott McAdams: 27%

Arizona
John McCain: 61%
Rodney Glassman: 37%

Arkansas
John Boozman: 56%
Blanche Lincoln: 43%

California
Barbara Boxer: 50%
Carly Fiorina: 48%

Colorado
Ken Buck: 52%
Michael Bennett: 47%

Connecticut
Richard Blumenthal: 53%
Linda McMahon: 46%

Delaware
Chris Coons: 58%
Christine O'Donnell: 40%

Florida
Marco Rubio: 43%
Charlie Crist: 33%
Kendrick Meek: 24%

Georgia
Johnny Isakson: 62%
Michael Thurmond: 37%

Hawaii
Daniel Inouye: 72%
Cam Cavasso: 27%

Idaho
Mike Crapo: 78%
Tom Sullivan: 21%

Illinois
Mark Kirk: 47%
Alexi Giannoulias: 44%
LeAlan Jones: 6%

Indiana
Dan Coats: 55%
Brad Ellsworth: 44%

Iowa
Chuck Grassley: 62%
Roxanne Conlin: 36%

Kansas
Jerry Moran: 69%
Lisa Johnston: 30%

Kentucky
Rand Paul: 53%
Jack Conway: 45%

Louisiana
David Vitter: 59%
Charlie Melancon: 38%

Maryland
Barbara Mikulski: 58%
Eric Wargotz: 40%

Missouri
Roy Blunt: 53%
Robin Carnahan: 45%

Nevada
Sharon Angle: 48%
Harry Reid: 44%
NOTA: 4%

New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte: 52%
Paul Hodes: 46%

New York
Chuck Schumer: 64%
Jay Townsend: 35%

New York(Special)
Kirsten Gillibrand: 55%
Joe DioGuardi: 44%

North Carolina
Richard Burr: 54%
Elaine Marshall: 44%

North Dakota
John Hoevan: 73%
Tracy Potter: 25%

Ohio
Rob Portman: 56%
Lee Fisher: 43%
Oklahoma
Tom Coburn: 71%
Jim Rogers: 26%

Oregon
Ron Wyden: 58%
Jim Huffman: 40%

Pennsylvania
Pat Toomey: 53%
Joe Sestak: 45%

South Carolina
Jim Demint: 73%
Alvin Greene: 24%

South Dakota
John Thune: 100%

Utah
Mike Lee: 66%
Sam Grantao: 33%

Vermont
Patrick Leahy: 66%
Len Britton: 32%

Washington
Dino Rossi: 50%
Patty Murray: 49%

West Virginia
John Raese: 52%
Joe Mancin: 47%

Wisconsin
Ron Johnson: 53%
Russ Feingold: 45%

Version: 109

State Flips: Nevada, Illinois

I am now predicting that Republicans will take the Senate. Potentially 52 votes if Lieberman switches (I think he will if GOP becomes majority).

Version: 108

I'm starting to sincerely think this could be the map. The states I'm not sure on are Washington and Illinois. But every other state, including Nevada, I'm really feeling like my current prediction will hold.

Nevada - Lowden or Tarkanian would probably be winning right now. Unfortunately, the Republican party nominated Angle. Reid is pouring cash into this race, and that will only increase. Maybe Reid would go down if this was in a state like Kansas, but this is Nevada.

Connecticut - McMahon is going to make this race surprisingly close. She's got to hate it that Dodd dropped out, because she'd probably be leading him by double-digits. A high amount of Democratic voters in the state will help Blumenthal hang on.

Illinois - The Democratic base is starting to come home. Kirk needs to have a great October to win this.

Version: 104

I feel like this is a pretty fair map, not hackish like I am accused of my liberals. This goes off the polls. I can see arguments for both sides on WV, IL, and NV, but I think every other seat is looking good for the GOP. I have reason to believe NY(S) could become close, according to planned polls to be released. If they were just bluffs and I'm wrong, then I'll change it back to strong Gillibrand.

Weakest Predictions: WV, CA

Version: 102

I'm starting to get pessimistic on Republicans chances in Washington, Nevada, and Delaware. I'm actually thinking Connecticut and West Virgina will really start to close up in the next few weeks. We'll see ;)

Version: 101

Some explanations...
Alaska: With Murkowski now planning on running a write-in campaign, that will hurt Miller's numbers. However, I don't think it'll sink him, just drop him below 50%.

California: This race will come down to the wire. Boxer has started to hammer Fiorina on outsourcing, which could eventually kill her.

Connecticut: Linda McMahon is running some great ads in Connecticut, and I'm really starting to like her. Blumenthal has already made one major gaffe, and if he makes another one, even minor, I think his campaign could be toast. He needs to focus on the lawsuits against WWE and McMahon, but he has yet to really focus on it yet.


West Virginia: John Raese is starting to close the gap in WV, and if Republicans nationwide start investing into this race, it will be a nailbiter. For now, however, I'm leaving it as Lean Manchin.

Wisconsin: All polling suggests that Ron Johnson will be the next Senator from Wisconsin. He's leading by 7 now, according to Rasmussen, and isn't even very well known. He has the money, and he seems a clean candidate. Let's see if Feingold can come from behind and snag this.

Version: 91

This is Republicans best scenario, IMO. I seriously think WV could come into play as we get closer to the election.

Version: 58

Pennsylvania: My prediction is that Sestak will win the primary. If Specter wins, however, I'd give Toomey the edge.

Version: 57

For the record, the reason Utah is lean is because of a possible third party run by Bennett. It has nothing to do with the Democrat.

Version: 55

Utah could get interesting, IMO...

Version: 53

The Republican road to Majority: Of winnable seats, they can now afford to lose 2 and still have 50. Yes, I think Connecticut is winnable...

Version: 50

One thing to note: I think Republicans will win nationally for the Senate with over 55%.

Version: 49

South Dakota will be 90% Thune, as no Democrat is running against him. Ohio, Missouri, and Pennsylvania should be FUN races to watch.

Version: 42

Here's hoping Ellsworth can win.

Version: 38

Indiana changes due to Bayh's retiring...
Republicans need either Pataki, Rossi, or Thompson to run, plus a Lieberman switch.

Version: 31

Both Pence and Hostettler could be a huge threat to Bayh. While Stutzman is trailing, I think he has the potential to win too, once people learn about him.

Version: 28

Please note: This is my opinion of the race, if Scott Brown wins on Tuesday. While it may seem little, it will be a huge boost to GOP momentum, and will probably lead to a few retirememnts by Democrats in the Senate and House.

Version: 26

With Dorgan out, I'm very confident Hoevan will win North Dakota. With Dodd retiring, Connecticut will also be an easy win for Democrats. They (somewhat) cancel out, but Republicans are better off, overall.

Version: 23

Missouri should be fun. Despite this prediction, I think Republicans will be more popular by the election, and Republicans will keep the seat.

Version: 19

Look for Republicans leading in many polls, with the health bill passed. The fact that Republicans will do so well, given the fact they have a lot of seats to hold onto, is incredible. Republicans should have a large Senate majority after 2014.

Version: 18

NY switches due to expectations Giuliani won't be running.
Closest Races: Arkansas, Deleware

Version: 17

If Republicans win back the Senate, this is how it will be done. I think Lieberman would officially become a Republican, or at least start caucusing with them once he realized him switching would put republicans in power. He'll probably try and cut a deal with Republicans after the election to get a good leadership position, then switch, making the Senate 51-48-1.

Version: 10

Arkansas is looking more like a Republican win with Lincoln voting for health care. Pennsylvania should be a fun race.

Version: 9

This is under the assumption that Hoeven does run in North Dakota. As it looks like Lincoln could be supporting the health bill, her chances in Arkansas will plummet.

Version: 8

This is the best possible scenario for Democrats, in my opinion.

Version: 7

My slow Democrat trend, which will end in a couple days with Democrats Best Scenario. Then will trend to Republicans best.

Version: 6

I don't know, I'm trying to be less biased but it's hard when I really think Republicans will do well. Deleware will be so close.

Version: 5

I'm really thinking Gillibrand is going to be defeated by either Pataki or Giuliani. Things just aren't looking swell for her.
In my opinion, Republicans need 43 seats to prevent a fillibuster, with Collins and Snowe being so independent. So with the map above, we could lose two more, and we'd still be acceptable in the Senate. But after that, I'd get worried.
I also changed Missouri to Republican. Polling came out today with Carnahan only up by 1 point. I think the atmosphere will be a bit more Republican friendly by the election.

Version: 4

NY(S) polling proves I might be right.
Missouri is a Republican state. With a republican-friendly atmosphere, I think the polls will close soon.

Version: 3

There are so many toss-ups in this election. A big thing in Penn. will be how the Democratic primary turns out, and if Specter runs as an Independent if he loses.

Version: 2

North Dakota depends on whether the Governor runs for the seat.
Republicans do have a shot at taking back the Senate, if they win all of the ones above, plus Illinois, NY(S), Missouri, North Dakota, and California. It is possible, especially if Obama's approval ratings are below 45%.

Version: 1

I will honestly say, I do not think I'm being a Republican hack. Democrats have passed a lot of bills that America aren't happy with. Reid has a formable opponent. Gillibrand does too. This is how I see it going...

Next states to flip: Missouri, NY(S), Pennsylvania

Version History

128: 2010-11-01 @ 16:12:38 127: 2010-10-31 @ 12:11:13 126: 2010-10-30 @ 16:02:45 125: 2010-10-29 @ 17:15:42 124: 2010-10-28 @ 22:19:32 123: 2010-10-27 @ 23:56:32 122: 2010-10-25 @ 21:00:48 121: 2010-10-23 @ 17:08:46 120: 2010-10-21 @ 15:58:26 119: 2010-10-20 @ 16:11:07 118: 2010-10-19 @ 19:34:14 117: 2010-10-17 @ 21:56:11 116: 2010-10-16 @ 14:48:41 115: 2010-10-15 @ 15:30:51 114: 2010-10-13 @ 19:21:39 113: 2010-10-12 @ 17:06:37 112: 2010-10-11 @ 09:59:51 111: 2010-10-09 @ 21:45:11 110: 2010-10-07 @ 16:40:39 109: 2010-10-05 @ 16:53:36 108: 2010-10-02 @ 15:47:34 107: 2010-09-30 @ 16:37:05 106: 2010-09-26 @ 20:11:29 105: 2010-09-24 @ 17:53:03 104: 2010-09-22 @ 21:51:23 103: 2010-09-21 @ 15:46:30 102: 2010-09-19 @ 14:58:30 101: 2010-09-17 @ 19:51:28 100: 2010-09-15 @ 16:58:34 99: 2010-09-14 @ 22:23:13 98: 2010-09-12 @ 10:51:29 97: 2010-09-08 @ 22:23:11 96: 2010-09-05 @ 15:00:51 95: 2010-09-01 @ 21:26:56 94: 2010-08-29 @ 17:23:24 93: 2010-08-26 @ 21:54:37 92: 2010-08-24 @ 16:21:35 91: 2010-08-21 @ 15:39:56 90: 2010-08-19 @ 21:55:29 89: 2010-08-17 @ 16:18:12 88: 2010-08-14 @ 13:04:05 87: 2010-08-11 @ 08:21:23 86: 2010-08-08 @ 12:13:37 85: 2010-08-06 @ 14:15:29 84: 2010-08-04 @ 20:51:59 83: 2010-08-03 @ 15:56:42 82: 2010-08-02 @ 10:40:42 81: 2010-08-01 @ 14:50:47 80: 2010-07-31 @ 16:31:12 79: 2010-07-30 @ 22:42:15 78: 2010-07-16 @ 13:22:17 77: 2010-07-14 @ 12:52:21 76: 2010-07-12 @ 10:33:44 75: 2010-07-07 @ 15:35:07 74: 2010-07-06 @ 09:13:53 73: 2010-07-02 @ 10:39:01 72: 2010-06-29 @ 15:11:14 71: 2010-06-25 @ 12:50:09 70: 2010-06-20 @ 20:28:39 69: 2010-06-12 @ 10:06:06 68: 2010-06-11 @ 00:26:50 67: 2010-06-07 @ 15:36:41 66: 2010-06-05 @ 10:17:54 65: 2010-05-31 @ 10:23:23 64: 2010-05-29 @ 10:37:33 63: 2010-05-26 @ 18:40:15 62: 2010-05-21 @ 15:52:52 61: 2010-05-16 @ 15:27:24 60: 2010-05-15 @ 10:10:20 59: 2010-05-13 @ 16:38:44 58: 2010-05-08 @ 18:47:10 57: 2010-05-07 @ 16:00:55 56: 2010-05-05 @ 19:34:26 55: 2010-05-02 @ 22:35:37 54: 2010-04-29 @ 20:41:08 53: 2010-04-25 @ 08:27:31 52: 2010-04-17 @ 17:40:51 51: 2010-04-11 @ 15:48:25 50: 2010-04-09 @ 15:49:22 49: 2010-04-02 @ 21:00:32 48: 2010-04-01 @ 17:13:58 47: 2010-03-28 @ 19:38:14 46: 2010-03-23 @ 22:12:01 45: 2010-03-22 @ 14:15:50 44: 2010-03-17 @ 16:42:47 43: 2010-03-11 @ 19:08:09 42: 2010-03-06 @ 18:34:57 41: 2010-03-02 @ 18:30:50 40: 2010-02-22 @ 13:14:42 39: 2010-02-21 @ 14:11:04 38: 2010-02-15 @ 12:53:04 37: 2010-02-14 @ 19:07:21 36: 2010-02-09 @ 10:36:20 35: 2010-02-06 @ 12:33:23 34: 2010-02-04 @ 19:45:42 33: 2010-02-03 @ 16:15:34 32: 2010-01-30 @ 10:11:22 31: 2010-01-25 @ 15:49:14 30: 2010-01-24 @ 19:03:32 29: 2010-01-20 @ 16:40:01 28: 2010-01-16 @ 10:49:29 27: 2010-01-09 @ 20:07:44 26: 2010-01-07 @ 11:05:32 25: 2010-01-06 @ 08:43:58 24: 2010-01-01 @ 22:16:00 23: 2009-12-30 @ 13:51:23 22: 2009-12-28 @ 15:31:42 21: 2009-12-27 @ 18:49:53 20: 2009-12-25 @ 20:50:34 19: 2009-12-24 @ 12:34:01 18: 2009-12-21 @ 19:33:12 17: 2009-12-19 @ 10:35:53 16: 2009-12-16 @ 16:55:26 15: 2009-12-13 @ 13:25:20 14: 2009-12-09 @ 16:06:52 13: 2009-12-07 @ 20:51:11 12: 2009-12-04 @ 17:09:21 11: 2009-12-02 @ 15:43:38 10: 2009-11-23 @ 19:32:15 9: 2009-11-22 @ 15:08:39 8: 2009-11-21 @ 19:37:05 7: 2009-11-20 @ 16:15:47 6: 2009-11-19 @ 18:33:18 5: 2009-11-18 @ 15:12:39 4: 2009-11-17 @ 09:35:05 3: 2009-11-16 @ 12:16:55 2: 2009-11-15 @ 09:26:52 1: 2009-11-14 @ 08:57:54 View Version

Member Comments

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2010-11-01 @ 19:16:51
This is my final prediction. I may add in percentages later. It's been fun predicting with all of you!

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-01 @ 19:57:12
Good predicting with you tmthforu! Remember to get out there and vote tomorrow!

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