Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:10

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	25
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	25
Ind	0
Tos	1
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	-1	-1	10	7	17	+7
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	38	49
Republican	25	23	48
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
59	35	24

Analysis

My Final Map

Still not sure about Alaska, but really, I don't think anyone actually is. It could go to either one of them at this point. Only one thing is certain about Alaska at this point: We won't know on November 2nd.

Pennsylvania is beyond saving for Sestak, it looks like the GOP is finally going to get Pennsylvania.

Illinois? I'd give it about a 20% chance for Giannoulias at this point. Kirk looks to be leading every poll, if only by about 3-5%.

Nevada is gone, it's been that way for a while. Angle will be a Senator-elect in 48 hours.

Feingold is out.

Manchin is staying in, or if I'm proven wrong, and a GOP Tidal Wave sweeps him away, the Democrats will lose the Senate as well.

Here's to hoping I'm wrong!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

Illinois appears to be going Republican this year, but it could still go Democrat if the independent vote is strong enough.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	6	29	1	T	115
2022 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	4	0	205	T	305
2022 Governor	32/36	24/36	56/72	77.8%	3	1	158	T	272
2020 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	22	5	215	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	16	3	137	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	9	8	10	T	293
2016 President	53/56	37/56	90/112	80.4%	26	0	10	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	18/34	49/68	72.1%	17	1	120	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	7/12	17/24	70.8%	18	1	14	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	15	8	8	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	26/36	60/72	83.3%	58	1	21	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	19/36	49/72	68.1%	40	1	56	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	19	1	T	153
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	90	0	182	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	22/33	53/66	80.3%	7	2	56	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	3	15	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	25/52	71/104	68.3%	99	-	4		231
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	5	44	2	T	106
2010 Senate	35/37	24/37	59/74	79.7%	10	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	21/37	54/74	73.0%	10	1	130	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	537/585	374/585	911/1170	77.9%