Comments History
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hideVersion: 65
PA : Two polls out of Pennsylvania now show a tighter race. At first because it was PPP I wrote it off as bias but today a second poll actually has Sestak up. It remains to be seen in this year with the current GOP climate if this race truly will be a tossup at the end of the day. I still give the clear advantage to Toomey however I must also change the status of the state to reflect the most recent polling.
West Virginia: Move back to Raese for the time being still consider this one very tight and could easily flip back to Manchin...time will tell on this one.
Version: 49
Wisconsin: Could also be tossup Republican at this point. However since the only polling firm to poll the state for the last two months has been Rasmussen, I will leave the state with 18 year incumbent Feingold by a razor thin margin. If another polling firm besides Rasmussen commissions a poll showing him behind I will move the state to Johnson.
Version: 45
Assuming Tea Party candidates prevail tonight in the primary elections of Delaware and New Hampshire.
Version: 39
If Murray in Washington, Boxer in California, Feingold in Wisconsin lose the senate will likely go to the GOP.
Version: 38
Things are not looking good for the democrats with current polling in the midwest in particuliar. Republicans have recently increased their leads in Pennsylvania, Ohio which now appear to be out of the the tossup category. They also show leads in Illinois, Missouri and Wisconsin.
Out west may be a slightly better picture for democrats but still not a great one. Colorado is a pure toss up at this point as is Nevada with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's seat in jeopardy. Polls show him with a slight edge possibly in part to the fact his opponent Sharron Angle is a nutty bitch. Still a tossup nonetheless due to his high negatives.
Washington state also appears to be headed into the tossup category with Patty Murray in the fight of her political life against two time failed GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi
California my home state is also a tossup this year with Barbara Boxer fighting off a strong challenge from former failed HP executive Carly Fiorina. Two polls have shown Fiorina ahead but they are from the same firm so I still give the edge to Boxer, however if another poll from an alternate firm comes out with Fiorina ahead I will place my state in her column.
Again non of this is good news for the democrats. However a week is a lifetime in politics and some of the trajectory in these races could and might change. However this is still appears to be a GOP wave year. The signs have pointed to this for months. Now the polls are clearly headed in that direction for the time being.
Version: 34
Economy tanks even further and we have a "Double Dip" recession.
A few incumbents make some gaffes on top of economy woes and we have one of the best case scenarios for the GOP.
Version: 32
Faye's map inspired me to have a little fun in this version...again nothing to serious here with scenario (unless polling were to change in the future?...?)I would like to see this outcome but not confident of that at this point.
KS21- Notice how Missouri is a Carnahan victory..dont get use to it being a norm in my other versions just yet.
Miles- North Carolina is a Marshall win just for you.
I hope I don't give CR a heart attack with this scenario...
Version: 30
Colorado:
This scenario assume's that Ken Buck secure's the GOP nomination in Colorado against the more mainstream Jane Norton. Both candidates are conservative but Norton has not made the outlandish statements that Buck has. Buck while not as extreme as Angle in Nevada, is not the strongest candidate for the nomination in my opinion. He may be easier to brand as "too extreme for colorado". However, the democrats dont have the money in this race as Reid does in Nevada. If Romanoff secures the democratic nomination he can more easily run as a washington outsider then Bennett could and thus would be more competitive in my mind.
Version: 29
In this scenario many of these states share something in common. Elected women. This scenario represents the most opportunities to elect women to the senate body in the current races of 2010. Currently there are 17 women serving in the United States Senate. This year presents an opportunity to elect more women to that body.It is to be noted that a record number of republican women are running this year. A grand total of 24 female senators out of 100 is possible by the number of women running this year. Based on the various states of the races, I predict a more likely outcome number of between 15-21. This year could also be dubbed as the "the year of the republican woman." if many are successful.
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski(R inc) incumbent is favored to win
California: Barbara Boxer(D inc)vs Carly Fiorina(R)two women
Washington: Patty Murray(D inc) vs Dino Rossi (R)likely nominee
Nevada: Harry Reid (D inc) vs Sharron(insane)Angle (R)
Colorado: Micheal Bennett(D inc) or Andrew Romanoff(D) vs Gail Norton(R) (if she is nominee)
Iowa: Chuck Grassley(R inc) vs Roxanne Conlin(D)
Missouri: Robin Carnahan (D) vs Roy Blunt (R)
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln (D inc) vs John Boozman (R)
North Carolina: Richard Burr (R inc) vs Elaine Marshall (D)
Maryland: Barbara Milkulski(D inc)highly favored to win
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand (D inc) vs (R) Candidate
New Hampshire: Paul Hodes(D)vs Kelly Ayotte(if she is nominee)
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal(D)vs Linda McMahon(R)if nominee
These races in addition to the other women serving in the senate who are not up for re-election give me a count of 24 possible female senators at this point. This map above would reflect 24 women in the next senate. Again I predict the body will have between 16-20 when all the votes are counted.
Of these possibilities on the above map :
16 Would be Democratic
8 Would be Republican
If its a Republican Sweep Woman Year the Breakdown could be
as follows. (Which I highly Doubt)
11 Democratic Women
9 Republican Women
I believe this years results will be somewhere in between the two above stated possibilities. Still great progress towards that "glass ceiling" for women.
Version: 27
Ok this version is back to reality from my last enhanced version.
This is where I believe the races to be today if the elections were held...
Version: 26
I could imagine the outcry and the blame being tossed around in the GOP if this were actually a reality in November.Certain Death for the Tea Party???
Even if the GOP only pickup up one to three seats its still technically a failure in as much as this is a year in which everything on paper should favor them. However, with tea party additions in Kentucky, Nevada and possibly Colorado races that should have been their's outright look more competitive then they should.
Version: 25
Illinois:
from Toss Up Kirk to Toss Up Giannoulias. The Obama Chicago operation will be out in full force for Giannoulias which will give him an advantage in GOTV efforts. If Kirk isnt a couple of points ahead a few days before the actual vote I say its advantage Giannoulias in this democratic state. Still the democrats should pause at the fact the race is so close in President Obama's home state. A state that has more registered democrats and has a strong recent democratic voting record definetly fertile ground for them in any other year.
Wisconsin and Washington:
I will keep these races as tossups but Im not yet prepared to give the republican candidates the advantage in states where the incumbents are still farely powerful. I do conceed that these races are tighter then they should be and that eithier Murray or Feingold could easily be defeated if the tides turn quickly in these races...
Version: 24
Most races at present time are tossups as polling has been up and down in many races between the two major party candidates.
Nevada:
From Lean Angle to Toss up Reid.
I will preface my statements first as,I am no staunch fan of Harry Reid in particuliar. However it is clear to me Sharron Angle's lead is shrinking fast. Her once solid double digit to high single digit leads are now down to around 3pts. Averaged with other polls she is down to an 8pt lead. At one point her polling average had also been in double digits. I believe this is a result of her extreme views being aired so vividly. One such view being her view and treatment of the my LGBT community. As a openly homosexual male I would be afraid of her being elected if I lived in Nevada. Her statements toward my community go beyond disapproval and into the hostile category. I in particuliar dont take kindly to her suggesting a quarantine of people carrying non publically contagious (sexually) transmitted illnesses such as HIV. I have friends in Nevada and they dont need to be quarantined and are not a "threat" to the general public because they are HIV positive. I also dont believe in gutting social services such as peoples Unemployment Benefits (I am unemployed at present). Nor do I believe in gutting the Department of Education and EPA. I dont feel there was a "government conspiracy" to force people into using floride toothpaste. However I do feel that its a senators job to promote a healthy economy via job creation or promotion of an environment that is job friendly. Somewhat contrary to Ms Angle's statement " it wouldnt be my job as senator to create jobs if I were senator" Yet she attacks Reid for Nevada job losses? Her general job statement will not be percieved well...imo.
I believe the closing in of Reid at such an early stage in the campaign cant be good news for Angle. Angle should be running away with this race based on Reid's negatives. Reid has not spent 1/4 of his war chest just yet, and is closing in. This could be percieved a sign that Angles public perception is not being recieved well based on her social positions and non-conventional views.
Michelle Bachmann(Rep MN) has nothing on Sharron Angle in terms of the label "out of the mainstream" extreme's.
I personally would be concerned for Nevada if this woman becomes senator.
Florida:
Crist as an Independent is currently polling stronger then I thought he would, considering his ties to Obama. Still early but I'm moving the state back into his column solidly.
Pennsylvania:
Tossup Toomey to Tossup Sestak. This race is a tossup in every sense of the word at the present time. I dont see anyone running away with it just yet. Pennsylvania is usually a battleground state. Sestak may still be more appealing for his impressive victory over Specter in the primary. Toomey would be wise to not underestimate him.
California:
As I suspected the SUSA poll may have been a fluke because the Rasmussen poll has Boxer up by 7. However with these two polls averaged its still a tossup. I do believe Boxer will pull away ever so slightly as both women begin their respective advertising in the state. They have not been advertising for the general election just yet up to this point. Boxer also has a record of closing and posting stronger in later polls and has in all three of her previous races
Version: 23
Most races at present time are tossups as polling has been up and down in many races between the two major party candidates.
Nevada:
From Lean Angle to Toss up Angle.
I will preface my statements first as,I am no staunch fan of Harry Reid in particuliar. However it is clear to me Sharron Angle's lead is shrinking fast. Her once solid double digit to high single digit leads are now down to around 3pts. Averaged with other polls she is down to an 8pt lead. At one point her polling average had also been in double digits. I believe this is a result of her extreme views being aired so vividly. One such view being her view and treatment of the my LGBT community. As a openly homosexual male I would be afraid of her being elected if I lived in Nevada. Her statements toward my community go beyond disapproval and into the hostile category. I in particuliar dont take kindly to her suggesting a quarantine of people carrying non publically contagious (sexually) transmitted illnesses such as HIV. I have friends in Nevada and they dont need to be quarantined and are not a "threat" to the general public because they are HIV positive. I also dont believe in gutting social services such as peoples Unemployment Benefits (I am unemployed at present). Nor do I believe in gutting the Department of Education and EPA. I dont feel there was a "government conspiracy" to force people into using floride toothpaste. However I do feel that its a senators job to promote a healthy economy via job creation or promotion of an environment that is job friendly. Somewhat contrary to Ms Angle's statement " it wouldnt be my job as senator to create jobs if I were senator" Yet she attacks Reid for Nevada job losses? Her general job statement will not be percieved well...imo.
I believe the closing in of Reid at such an early stage in the campaign cant be good news for Angle. Angle should be running away with this race based on Reid's negatives. Reid has not spent 1/4 of his war chest just yet, and is closing in. This could be percieved a sign that Angles public perception is not being recieved well based on her social positions and non-conventional views.
Michelle Bachmann(Rep MN) has nothing on Sharron Angle in terms of the label "out of the mainstream" extreme's.
I personally would be concerned for Nevada if this woman becomes senator.
Florida:
Crist as an Independent is currently polling stronger then I thought he would, considering his ties to Obama. Still early but I'm moving the state back into his column solidly.
Pennsylvania:
Tossup Toomey to Tossup Sestak. This race is a tossup in every sense of the word at the present time. I dont see anyone running away with it just yet. Pennsylvania is usually a battleground state. Sestak may still be more appealing for his impressive victory over Specter in the primary. Toomey would be wise to not underestimate him.
California:
As I suspected the SUSA poll may have been a fluke because the Rasmussen poll has Boxer up by 7. However with these two polls averaged its still a tossup. I do believe Boxer will pull away ever so slightly as both women begin their respective advertising in the state. They have not been advertising for the general election just yet up to this point. Boxer also has a record of closing and posting stronger in later polls and has in all three of her previous races
Version: 22
California to tossup Boxer based on current SUSA polling. I seriously doubt the validity of an actual Fiorina lead but am willing to conceed the race is tighter.
Interesting to note that neithier senatorial candidates have been running ads since Fiorina won her parties nomination. This could be seen as a bounce and remains to be seen if its a real polling trend.
I also studied the makeup of the participants in the SUSA poll and feel they did not accurately poll the Los Angeles or San Francisco Bay area. I also am lead to wonder if the latino and african american communities was accurately polled.
These communities will no doubt support Boxer and Jerry Brown overwhelmingly.
Version: 21
Change from previous map: Florida from Independent Crist to Republican Rubio.
Version: 20
Updates from previous versions:
Pennsylvania: From Democrat Sestak to Republican Toomey. Very narrowly. This will be a hard fought race.
Wisconsin: From Lean Feingold to Toss Up Feingold based on recent tight polling.
Washington: Lean Murray to Tossup Murray again based on tight polling.
The high unemployment rate and the lack luster response to the oil spill from the Obama administration is a drag on many of these races. Improvement in these issues is critical to democratic chances this fall. Yes races will be fought on local issues but people can not ignore these large national issues. Demographics and voter turnout will also be key in determining a winner.
(PS:) Sharron Angle is a lunatic and I really hope that Reid(as much as I dislike him) can beat her.
Version: 18
Update from last version:
Nevada: Although I still give Reid a good chance of pulling out an upset against Tea Party Queen Sharron Angle she is currently ahead in the polls so thus I will give her the state in the current version of my map. However her previous past positions I believe will come to haunt her in the fall campaign. She has already back pedaled and tried to be seen as more mainstream.
Florida: I believe Marco Rubio may have a razor thin edge at this moment in time but I havent written Crist off for dead this will be a tough campaign and I expect him to do well and possibly upseat Rubio in that race.
Version: 17
New Map based a little more in reality then my previous two scenarios.Notes on a few of the races from Tuesday.Party Nominees were decided in 4 races I was watching closely:
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln strongely and bravely held out a challenge by liberal state Lt Governor Bill Halter. Unfortunately I still dont see how she is able to hold this seat this year and polling had both democrats losing to Boozman the republican nominee by double digits.
Iowa: While I believe multiple term GOP incumbent Senator Chuck Grassley will win by a comfortable margin I also expect this race to be closer then previously expected. Possible sleeper race that I believe Roxann Conlin will be a tougher opponent then many expect. Conlin is a tough attorney and has a pretty neutral to likeable public image statewide from my research. One recent poll had her only 8pts behind the multiple term incumbent in the perpetual battleground state.
Nevada: In a suprise I had not anticipated months ago, The nevada race of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may just be competitive this fall. Why? The state nominated far right tea party favorite Sharron Angle as the Republican nominee. She has made such bold statements as being in favor of getting rid of various departments of education. Reid may be able to successfully paint her as out of the mainstream Nevada electorate. Nevada is not a far right state.rnThis race should be a cake walk for republicans but Reid may just luck out with a razor thin win as I also believe there is likely to be a down ballot independent that my siffon votes away from Angle.
California: The more moderate and electable candidate Campbell lost to former failed CEO Carly Fiorina (aka Demon sheep woman for her respectively titled ad against campbell) While the race will still be somewhat competitive I bet Boxer is breathing a sigh of relief with Fiorina as her opponent in progressive california. Fiorina is pro-life, pro-gun and anti gun control and anti-gay marriage in a state where the republican party splits on the issue and democrats favor marriage rights. (Prop 8 narrowly passed) She is also against the idea of climate change and feels Boxer is out of step with California regarding global warming. Fiorina is also already being hit on her record at HP and the over 15,000 jobs lost and the many more outsourced to other countries.She was subsequently fired/forced to resign as CEO and many are coming out of the woodwork to speak out against her rein.
Fiorina has demostrated that she can be a bit of a loose cannon with various remarks that will not bode well in a race against Boxer. No apology tours are accepted in California. Once you misspeak your burned. This is not Connecticut.
Version: 16
As stated on my previous map...Heres the Best Case Landslide Scenario for Republicans at this time. Assuming a scenario in which everything went their way. Which will *not* likely happen in the fall!
Connecticut: The states ability to vote republican this year is questionable in a even in a republican landslide scenario. Even after Blumenthals multiple verbal blunders in the state he still maintains double digit leads at present day. So while this would assume everything went right for the republicans and a tidal wave of support went their way Connecticut might still hold out support based on present day polling.
California: Ive still listed it as a tossup even in a landslide scenario as the popular vote would still be close even if republicans are able to pick it up in the fall. 40% of the states electorate are registered democrats so the losing candidate would likely recieve at least 41% just from their base support. The republican would have to trounce the democrats with independents in order to reach a large plurality as Swartzenegger had. So this map might forsee an outcome in California in the range 52-48% win for the republican candidate Fiorina. Which I highly doubt will come to pass.
Version: 15
Best Case Landslide Scenario For the Democrats...This ofcourse will *not* happen but this is just the upward limitation of what a democratic lanslide win could yield if everything went their way. This would be under a tidal wind of good news for democrats and a split in republican ranks.My next map will be a best case scenario for republicans.
Version: 14
This is where I believe the races to be today if a vote were taken. Ofcourse many of these states still have yet to select a nominee, such as my home state. A nominee would effect the outcome in a few. California might toss Boxer out with the right republican for instance. Reid may be more competitive in Nevada if Angle is the nominee as she has run a pretty eratic campaign quite recently as has Fiorina here in California.
Version: 13
Updated California to reflect new polling.
However I am unsure as to the republican candidate in the slew of new polls out showing Boxer's lead increasing. Since California has yet to have secure a republican nominee this race truly is a tossup despite the polling out. I still believe the race could tighten with the right GOP nominee. Ms Boxer is still polling well below the 50% mark that a successful incumbent usually needs to be reelected.
Also have noticed that the Pennsylvania race has tightened up after Sestak won his parties nomination.
Florida Mr Rubio has seemed to take a slight albeit tight and narrow lead over Independent Florida Governor Charlie Crist.
I expect this race to be very interesting.
Version: 12
Back to a prediction map.
Connecticut: to a toss-up possibility for republicans in lew of the recent false statements of military service made by Richard Blumenthal the democrats candidate. I believe he should step down for the sake of his party. I would not trust him with my vote after such a lie.
Pennsylvania: moved back to democrats after the Sestak win. I admire Joe Sestaks story of service to his country as a decorated Admiral. I believe his service will play well in a state with a high veteran population. I also think he will put up more of a fight against Toomey then Specter would have. Toomey's social positions may not play well in the Philadelphia suburbs home to Joe Sestak and the swing districts of the state. Time will tell and we really will need to see polls within a few weeks to see where the race sits here.
Version: 11
Version: 10
Updating my map after developements in the race for Florida senate. Crist is running as an independent and is polling suprising well against Republican Marco Rubio and the weaker Kendrick Meek. Will he take it?...remains to be seen with such a split electorate in a battleground state I think he could. Recently polling has him up anywhere from 3-8pts.
Version: 9
Recent polling shows Republican Mark Kirk polling better then I expected in Illinois. Perhaps a result of his more moderate stances on social issues while maintaining fiscal conservative stances to keep the republican base on board. As is Republican Tom Campbell in my home state of California. Both races will be close eithier way and could tip the balance of the chamber.
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Version: 5
Best Case Scenario for the republicans at this point.
Version: 4
Massachusetts should be a warning to any democrat incumbent who thinks they are "safe"
Polling out recently have not been very positive for many democratic incumbents with years of experience.
Some Key Races to Watch:
Very Likely Republican Pickups:
Nevada-No Brainer...Reid is the most vulnerable democratic incumbent. I have not seen a poll showing him competitive in many months, Unless somehow Sharron Angle is the nominee then its advantage Reid.
Arkansas- Blanche Lincoln hails from a state that has been trending republican despite it being Bill Clintons home state. Many in Arkansas are unhappy with her rubber stamping of the obama agenda.
Colorado- Polls showing republicans doing very well in a state that went to obama by 9 pts.
Delaware- Castle is known and very popular. Hunky Beau Biden has decided not to challenge him.
Ohio- Ever the competitive state. People are dissatisfied with Obama and the lack of job creation. The same could be said in Indiana where once safe Bayh is now vulnerable.
New Hampshire...A state where independents dominant a group that is running away from obama and his agenda or lack of one on new jobs.
Competitive Races or slight lean republican:
Missouri- Although I believe it will be leaning republican by november.
New York- Gillibrand is vulnerable if a moderate runs. IF she goes up against Pataki I say advantage Pataki who is the popular ex republican governer.
Pennsylvania- Specter is now vulnerable despite running against Toomey who at one point looked too conservative to win in a battleground state.
Illinois: The republicans have set their sites on the presidents home state. Rep Kirk is a moderate and could be very electable in the democratic state. After the fiasco that was Blago people are ready for new leadership even in Illinois!
Toss Ups:
California: Lean Boxer especially if Fiorina is the nominee.
Wisconsin: Another state that is traditionally a battleground state. It all depends on the popularity of the liberal Feingold in the state. Obama did very well here in 2008 Im not sure if that was situational or if the state is truly up for grabs. I will wait for more polling out of the state.
Indiana: Bayh should NOT be polling just a few points ahead or behind he -should- be up by double digits. This is just a sign of the toxic banner that is obama. Indiana has been traditionally a republican state in the past and has the demographics to flip faster then other states. Toss up republican is my call.---Now that Coats has announced he will challenge Bayh I am convinced this will turn into a toss up race.
Lean to Safe Democrat:
(If any democrat can safely be titled as such?)
New York: Schumer is safe for now.
Maryland: Milkulski is safe in a very blue state with years of experience first elected in 1986.
Connecticut: Blumenthal is the very popular state attorney general and leads by double digits in all polling out of CT.
Oregon:Ron Wyden is very popular and Oregon is still very liberal and receptive to Obama.Unemployment is not as bad in oregon as in other states.
Washington: Patty Murray soccer mom turned politician is still popular in liberal washington state. She is a classic liberal but is very skilled at running moderate campaigns and staying away from hot button issues.
At this point I do believe it is possible for republicans to win control of the senate.
I also believe if it is a tidal wave of 1994 porportions Nancy Pelosi could be retitled Minority Leader in the house which would thrill me!
Massachusetts should be a warning to any democrat incumbent who thinks they are "safe"
This is early on but the sense of a tidal wave is pretty clear.
Polling out recently have not been very positive for many democratic incumbents with years of experience.
Some Key Races to Watch:
Very Likely Republican Pickups:
Nevada-No Brainer...Reid is the most vulnerable democratic incumbent. I have not seen a poll showing him competitive in many months.
Arkansas- Blanche Lincoln hails from a state that has been trending republican despite it being Bill Clintons home state. Many in Arkansas are unhappy with her rubber stamping of the obama agenda.
Colorado- Polls showing republicans doing very well in a state that went to obama by 9 pts.
Delaware- Castle is known and very popular. Hunky Beau Biden has decided not to challenge him.
Ohio- Ever the competitive state. People are dissatisfied with Obama and the lack of job creation. The same could be said in Indiana where once safe Bayh is now vulnerable.
New Hampshire...A state where independents dominant a group that is running away from obama and his agenda or lack of one on new jobs.
Competitive Races or slight lean republican:
Missouri- Although I believe it will be leaning republican by november.
New York- Gillibrand is vulnerable if a moderate runs. IF she goes up against Pataki I say advantage Pataki who is the popular ex republican governer.
Pennsylvania- Specter is now vulnerable despite running against Toomey who at one point looked too conservative to win in a battleground state.
Illinois: The republicans have set their sites on the presidents home state. Rep Kirk is a moderate and could be very electable in the democratic state. After the fiasco that was Blago people are ready for new leadership even in Illinois!
Toss Ups:
California: Although I have it as a toss up only because I believe by november Boxer will be vulnerable It all depends on her challenger and the situation for democrats abroad. Boxer is running in a democratic state, but has always carried a liberal banner and is easily branded as such. She is one of the easiest politicians to tie to supporting obama and support of his failed agenda. She will also be running in a state where unemployment is at 13% or could be even higher come november. I call it a toss up where as others classify her as safe or lean democrat.
Wisconsin: Another state that is traditionally a battleground state. It all depends on the popularity of the liberal Feingold in the state. Obama did very well here in 2008 Im not sure if that was situational or if the state is truly up for grabs. I will wait for more polling out of the state. I definetly would not put if out of the realm of possibility if a republican such as Ryan ran.
Indiana: Bayh should NOT be polling just a few points ahead or behind he -should- be up by double digits. This is just a sign of the toxic banner that is obama. Indiana has been traditionally a republican state in the past and has the demographics to flip back to one before other states. The fact that massachusetts elected a republican means that yes Indiana is in play. Toss up republican is my call.
Lean to Safe Democrat:
(If any democrat can safely be titled as such?)
New York: Schumer is safe for now.
Maryland: Milkulski is safe in a very blue state with years of experience first elected in 1986.
Connecticut: Blumenthal is the very popular state attorney general and leads by double digits in all polling out of CT.
Oregon:Ron Wyden is very popular and Oregon is still very liberal and receptive to Obama.Unemployment is not as bad in oregon as in other states.
Washington: Patty Murray soccer mom turned politician is still popular in liberal washington state. She is a classic liberal but is very skilled at running moderate campaigns and staying away from hot button issues.
At this point I do believe it is possible for republicans to win control of the senate.
I also believe if it is a tidal wave of 1994 porportions Nancy Pelosi could be retitled Minority Leader in the house which would thrill me!
Massachusetts should be a warning to any democrat incumbent who thinks they are "safe"
This is early on but the sense of a tidal wave is pretty clear.
Polling out recently have not been very positive for many democratic incumbents with years of experience.
Some Key Races to Watch:
Very Likely Republican Pickups:
Nevada-No Brainer...Reid is the most vulnerable democratic incumbent. I have not seen a poll showing him competitive in many months.
Arkansas- Blanche Lincoln hails from a state that has been trending republican despite it being Bill Clintons home state. Many in Arkansas are unhappy with her rubber stamping of the obama agenda.
Colorado- Polls showing republicans doing very well in a state that went to obama by 9 pts.
Delaware- Castle is known and very popular. Hunky Beau Biden has decided not to challenge him.
Ohio- Ever the competitive state. People are dissatisfied with Obama and the lack of job creation. The same could be said in Indiana where once safe Bayh is now vulnerable.
New Hampshire...A state where independents dominant a group that is running away from obama and his agenda or lack of one on new jobs.
Competitive Races or slight lean republican:
Missouri- Although I believe it will be leaning republican by november.
New York- Gillibrand is vulnerable if a moderate runs. IF she goes up against Pataki I say advantage Pataki who is the popular ex republican governer.
Pennsylvania- Specter is now vulnerable despite running against Toomey who at one point looked too conservative to win in a battleground state.
Illinois: The republicans have set their sites on the presidents home state. Rep Kirk is a moderate and could be very electable in the democratic state. After the fiasco that was Blago people are ready for new leadership even in Illinois!
Toss Ups:
California: Although I have it as a toss up only because I believe by november Boxer will be vulnerable It all depends on her challenger and the situation for democrats abroad. Boxer is running in a democratic state, but has always carried a liberal banner and is easily branded as such. She is one of the easiest politicians to tie to supporting obama and support of his failed agenda. She will also be running in a state where unemployment is at 13% or could be even higher come november. I call it a toss up where as others classify her as safe or lean democrat.
Wisconsin: Another state that is traditionally a battleground state. It all depends on the popularity of the liberal Feingold in the state. Obama did very well here in 2008 Im not sure if that was situational or if the state is truly up for grabs. I will wait for more polling out of the state. I definetly would not put if out of the realm of possibility if a republican such as Ryan ran.
Indiana: Bayh should NOT be polling just a few points ahead or behind he -should- be up by double digits. This is just a sign of the toxic banner that is obama. Indiana has been traditionally a republican state in the past and has the demographics to flip back to one before other states. The fact that massachusetts elected a republican means that yes Indiana is in play. Toss up republican is my call.
Lean to Safe Democrat:
(If any democrat can safely be titled as such?)
New York: Schumer is safe for now.
Maryland: Milkulski is safe in a very blue state with years of experience first elected in 1986.
Connecticut: Blumenthal is the very popular state attorney general and leads by double digits in all polling out of CT.
Oregon:Ron Wyden is very popular and Oregon is still very liberal and receptive to Obama.Unemployment is not as bad in oregon as in other states.
Washington: Patty Murray soccer mom turned politician is still popular in liberal washington state. She is a classic liberal but is very skilled at running moderate campaigns and staying away from hot button issues.
At this point I do believe it is possible for republicans to win control of the senate.
I also believe if it is a tidal wave of 1994 porportions Nancy Pelosi could be retitled Minority Leader in the house which would thrill me!
Version: 3
Polling out recently have not been very positive for many democratic incumbents with years of experience.
Some Key Races to Watch:
Very Likely Republican Pickups:
Nevada-No Brainer...Reid is the most vulnerable democratic incumbent. I have not seen a poll showing him competitive in many months. Unless somehow Sharron Angle is the nominee then its advantage Reid.
Arkansas- Blanche Lincoln hails from a state that has been trending republican despite it being Bill Clintons home state. Many in Arkansas are unhappy with her rubber stamping of the obama agenda.
Colorado- Polls showing republicans doing very well in a state that went to obama by 9 pts.
Delaware- Castle is known and very popular. Hunky Beau Biden has decided not to challenge him.
Ohio- Ever the competitive state. People are dissatisfied with Obama and the lack of job creation. The same could be said in Indiana where once safe Bayh is now vulnerable.
New Hampshire...A state where independents dominant a group that is running away from obama and his agenda or lack of one on new jobs.
Competitive Races or slight lean republican:
Missouri- Although I believe it will be leaning republican by november.
New York- Gillibrand is vulnerable if a moderate runs. IF she goes up against Pataki I say advantage Pataki who is the popular ex republican governer.
Pennsylvania- Specter is now vulnerable despite running against Toomey who at one point looked too conservative to win in a battleground state.
Illinois: The republicans have set their sites on the presidents home state. Rep Kirk is a moderate and could be very electable in the democratic state. After the fiasco that was Blago people are ready for new leadership even in Illinois!
Toss Ups:
California: Lean Boxer especially if Fiorina is the nominee.
Wisconsin: Another state that is traditionally a battleground state. It all depends on the popularity of the liberal Feingold in the state. Obama did very well here in 2008 Im not sure if that was situational or if the state is truly up for grabs. I will wait for more polling out of the state. I definetly would not put if out of the realm of possibility if a republican such as Ryan ran.
Indiana: Bayh should NOT be polling just a few points ahead or behind he -should- be up by double digits. This is just a sign of the toxic banner that is obama. Indiana has been traditionally a republican state in the past and has the demographics to flip back to one before other states. The fact that massachusetts elected a republican means that yes Indiana is in play. Toss up republican is my call.
Lean to Safe Democrat:
(If any democrat can safely be titled as such?)
New York: Schumer is safe for now.
Maryland: Milkulski is safe in a very blue state with years of experience first elected in 1986.
Connecticut: Blumenthal is the very popular state attorney general and leads by double digits in all polling out of CT.
Oregon:Ron Wyden is very popular and Oregon is still very liberal and receptive to Obama.Unemployment is not as bad in oregon as in other states.
Washington: Patty Murray soccer mom turned politician is still popular in liberal washington state. She is a classic liberal but is very skilled at running moderate campaigns and staying away from hot button issues.
At this point I do believe it is possible for republicans to win control of the senate.
I also believe if it is a tidal wave of 1994 porportions Nancy Pelosi could be retitled Minority Leader in the house which would thrill me just to get rid of her.
Version: 2
Update from last map- Many of these states are still toss up status as we are a year out from midterms. I feel with the recent retirement announcement by moderate democrat Byron Dorgan of North Dakota that state will safely go to the republican candidate due to its strong republican voting record in a year that favors their party.
Still aways out, but midterms always tend to favor the party out of power. I think the obamacare being rammed through congress on a strict party line vote will be a call to power in the base of the republican party. Obamas approval ratings are now under 50% as well.
Version: 1
Still aways out, but midterms always tend to favor the party out of power.
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