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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:26

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep25
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-88311-8
Rep+4+4+80-1-110717+7
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic113849
Republican252348
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
653530
piepiepie

Analysis

Changed Nevada to a Reid loss. Modified a few other percentages. Regardless, this is going to be awful. Our government is going to be totally paralyzed for the next two years.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 25

Overall, this is a pathetic year for the Democrats. Expectations were too high when Obama was inaugurated, and now we're paying the price for that. He's also made some stupid mistakes. He has been unwilling to fight for important things, and has tried to compromise with people who have no interest in compromising with him. He settled for a stimulus that didn't spend enough money. He lost the narrative on health care and spending and seemingly every other issue. He let the Republicans shift the blame off of Bush and onto him for the bank bailout. But I think the biggest mistake was doing the stimulus as one bill. Instead of having a highly publicized jobs fight in Congress every two or three months over a new bill, he decided to have one fight at the beginning that everyone has forgotten about by now. And he probably could have gotten more stimulus funding by drawing it out as well. Instead, he got the bare minimum, and didn't get any good political benefit out of it.

These next two years are going to suck, with the House in Republican hands and the Senate possibly in their hands as well. I'm just hoping he can use that to his advantage in a Harry Truman-style campaign against a do-nothing 112th Congress.

State-by-state breakdown of the Senate races:

AL: Richard Shelby is a lock to win re-election in a state as conservative as Alabama.

AK: Hopefully Murkowski wins and then becomes the Republican’s version of Lieberman - opposing things just to annoy her colleagues.

AZ: He’s completely abandoned his maverick image and has gone full Tea Party. Apparently his most important principle is wanting to get re-elected.

AR: I’m glad Blanche will lose. She’s useless. The only thing that is unfortunate is that she managed to win the primary.

CA: It looked like a close race a few months ago, but Boxer has managed to pull off a comeback that most Dems have been unable to replicate.

CO: Bennett has been closing the gap lately. I still hope he can win. But I’m not optimistic enough to predict it.

CT: Despite Blumenthal’s military exaggeration problems, he got lucky enough to have a terrible opponent. He shouldn’t have a problem winning.

DE: Coons went from a certain loser to a certain winner when O’Donnell won the Republican nomination. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him top 60%.

FL: Meek and Crist have ended up splitting the Democratic vote. Meek should do the right thing and drop out of the race to give Crist a chance, but he will not.

GA: I haven’t really heard much about this race, but Isakson will sail to re-election.

HI: This race is going to be closer than it should be. Still, Inouye will hold the seat by a large margin.

ID: Hyper-conservative Idaho stays red. No surprise.

IL: This one will be close, but Giannoullias is probably going to lose. He just doesn’t have momentum.

IN: Really tough loss here, but Coats seems to have this one locked up. Bayh probably could have held it.

IA: Like almost all Republican incumbents this year, Grassley is a safe bet for re-election.

KS: I haven’t followed this race at all, but it looks like I haven’t missed much. Kansas stays a solid red state.

KY: In a normal year, a nut like Rand Paul wouldn’t be able to win. This is not a normal year.

LA: Vitter should have been vulnerable. Disappointing race.

MD: One of the safest Democratic incumbents. No surprises here.

MO: Another very disappointing example where the Democrats should have been able to make a competitive race, but didn’t.

NV: Second Amendment remedies? Sharron Angle’s talk borders on treason. And yet she has a chance to win this thing. Legitimately scary.

NH: It’s embarrassing that a blue state like NH is going to vote Republican.

NY: Extremely safe seat. Schumer will win reelection in a landslide.

NY-Special: One of the few races where the Dems have actually performed a little better than I expected. Having Cuomo and Schumer on the ballot helps.

NC: Burr looked weak this year, but the Dems were unable to take advantage.

ND: Not even worth discussing. Hoeven is a lock to win.

OH: Pathetic race. A guy who was George Bush’s budget director is going to win. Shows how hypocritical these supposed fiscal conservatives are.

OK: Red state. Safe re-election. Need I say more?

OR: Very solid seat. Wyden is one of my favorite Senators, and a lock for re-election.

PA: Pat Toomey is nothing more than a Rick Santorum clone who, unlike Santorum, is actually able to shut up and keep from saying insane things every week. Still, ugh.

SC: I’d be voting for the Green Party candidate in this race, since the Dem is an embarrassment. But I don’t live there.

SD: A seat so safe that the Dems didn’t even bother running a candidate. It’s a shame we can’t try to avenge Daschle’s loss from 2004.

UT: How a conservative stalwart like Bennett got defeated from the right in the primary is beyond comprehension. Regardless, a solid Republican hold.

VT: The most progressive state in the country will stay solid blue this year.

WA: Murray shouldn’t be in this close of a race. Still, I think she wins with a decent margin.

WV: This shouldn’t have been a close race. Manchin is very popular. But it’s close anyway. Any other year it would be a safe Dem seat.

WI: What happened here? Seriously? Feingold must be a terrible campaigner, because this is extremely embarrassing.


Version: 23

O'Donnell winning the Republican primary keeps Delaware in Democratic hands.


Version: 22

Despite the Republican Party having some of the worst and most extreme nominees in generations [Sharron Angle, Pat Toomey, Joe Miller, David Vitter, Rand Paul, etc] it seems as though the Democrats in general and the President in particular have managed to screw up things so badly that it doesn't matter.

The progressive base is badly demoralized. And while we won't vote for the Republicans under basically any circumstances, its getting harder each day for us to come up with reasons to back the Dems. We've been betrayed on issue after issue. Don't Ask Don't Tell is still solidly in effect. We've increased our presence in the lost cause that is Afghanistan. The stimulus wasn't large enough and was filled with wasteful tax cuts. The President is still opposed to marriage equality. The banks got off with barely a slap on the wrist. We have a deficit commission that is plotting to gut Social Security. The health care law was so poorly promoted and explained by the White House that it has become a political burden, when it should be seen as a major accomplishment, and was so poorly fought for that it could have been better. He's tried to pander to the right on issue after issue, despite the fact that doing so is a hopeless cause. He's trying to reach out to people who just flat-out hate him. If he just pursued solid policy, we wouldn't have these problems.

Obama is a great campaigner. And he's a decent head of state. But he's not a leader. And that's going to cause a massive problem this November. In January 2011, he's going to be giving the State of the Union with (I hate to say this) Speaker Boehner smirking behind him. Maybe that will be enough to make him realize what he needs to do to get things right.


Version: 21

Not really going into detail on this map. The only thing I have to say is that I'm not as pessimistic as I was when I made the last one.


Version: 20

I'm starting to feel a lot more pessimistic about November than I already had been. As of right now, I see the economy heading toward a double-dip recession.

I hate to accuse any politician of the this, but at this point, it has become apparent to me that the Republican members of both the House and the Senate are committed to doing whatever they can to wreck the economy before the November elections. Yesterday's successful filibuster of the unemployment and state aid bill in the Senate is proof of that. In last year's stimulus, Republicans forced the bill to be cut down to an insufficient size and filled with non-stimulative tax breaks, and then it only broke the filibuster by the slimmest of margins. Now with this unemployment bill, they moved the goal posts again and again to get the Democrats to gut the bill down to the point that it was clearly insufficient, though still better than nothing, and then blocked its passage anyway.

Add to it the fact that the Republicans governors and state legislatures are seemingly complicit in trying to make this situation worse, by slashing state workers' jobs and increasing unemployment to balance state budgets - made necessary by the Republicans blocking additional federal emergency aid to the states - instead of trying to raise revenue, and the possibility of a double-dip recession, or even a full-blown depression, is growing close to inevitable at this point.

It is truly incredible to me how the Republicans have become a party that is willing to be hostile to basic humanity simply in cynical attempt to regain power. They have fully and shamelessly adopted the Rush Limbaugh policy of wanting President Obama to fail.

Franklin Roosevelt once said that the basic Republican doctrine is that government is best which is "most indifferent to mankind." Well, today's Congressional Republicans have moved beyond even that, seemingly believing that government is best which is actively hostile to the needs of mankind.


Version: 19

2010 Best Case Scenario Map

For the record: I do not think that this will happen. Also, pay no attention to percentages or confidence levels, I have not adjusted them from the previous map.


Version: 18

Individual states

Connecticut: Other than in one freak Rasmussen poll, it seems that Blumenthal is going to be able to survive this whole military service controversy without much damage, and the Republicans there seem to not be embracing Linda McMahon (even as she is seemingly certain to win the primary), so I now have Blumenthal winning the state again. I have, however, chosen to only rank it as a lean race, not a strong one, for the near future.

Florida: As Kendrick Meek's support continues to collapse and move to Crist, I am growing more confident that Crist will win here. I'm calling it a tossup for now, but I don't know if that will last. Also, I'm starting to suspect that Crist will caucus with the Democrats if elected.

Illinois: The longer it goes on, the more pessimistic I am about this race. Illinois is the poster child of machine politics, but I'm starting to think that even that may not be able to save Giannoulias.

Kentucky: The Rand Paul trainwreck continues. This will be the most fascinating race of this cycle.

Nevada: Reid appears to still have a chance here. Lowden has fallen dramatically since the whole "bring a chicken to the doctor" fiasco, and Reid may even be lucky enough to get Sharron Angle, the weakest Republican candidate, as his opponent.

North Carolina: I've shifted this race back to Burr, but he remains easily the most vulnerable Republican incumbent.

Washington: With Rossi now in the race, I've shifted this from a Strong Democratic state to Lean Democratic state. Still, I am reasonably confident that Murray will get through this fine.


Version: 17

Alright, comments on a few states:

Pennsylvania: My concerns regarding Sestak's electability in the fall have lessened a bit, and today he's actually leading Toomey in a Rasmussen poll. If they have him ahead despite their strong Republican lean this cycle, then I have no reason to believe he's not ahead.

North Carolina: Easily the hardest call on this map. Burr seems like he's going to be a very weak candidate, but I don't know if the Dems can get lucky there. Marshall seems poised to win the runoff, and she does well against Burr in the polling I've seen. As long as she can focus the campaign on local issues rather than Obama, I think she has a shot.

Connecticut: Well, this is interesting. The Dems right now need to find a new candidate, as Blumenthal is either a liar, an idiot, or both. Until that gets resolved, I'm not calling this race. Fortunately, the primary isn't until August. If they find a different Democrat to replace him, I think the seat stays Dem. If not, I hope somebody gets in the race as either a Green Party or Independent candidate. I don't see Connecticut as willing to vote for a Republican unless the Republican is the only alternative to Blumenthal.


Version: 16

Polling seems to indicate that North Carolina is turning into a tossup race. I had been skeptical for a while, but now I'm willing to put it in that category.


Version: 15

Major update

All polls now point toward Sestak having a widening lead in the Pennsylvania primary, and right now I don't think he can win the general. That could change as we move toward November and more people learn Toomey's positions, but for now I have to hand the seat to the Republicans.

Will be following this race even more closely now.


Version: 14

Apparently Bennett has pledged to support the Republican nominee in Utah, so that goes back to the Republicans now.

http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_15046264


Version: 13

Utah tossup and independent for now until Bennett rules out a write-in candidacy.

The right wing in this country is increasingly proving itself to be not just conservative, but downright reactionary and regressive.


Version: 12

A few minor changes, all to percentages and confidence levels. I'm keeping my eye on Nevada. I think Lowden may be in trouble with the whole "bring a chicken to the doctor" thing. Reid is still in the fight of his life, but I think he has an actual chance now.


Version: 11

A couple of changes for this map. Most notably, I've decided to factor in an Independent run by Charlie Crist in Florida. I know he hasn't announced anything, but I have a gut feeling he's going to go for it. And I think if he does that enough Dems will defect from Meek that Crist could win. I've also made Missouri a Republican hold for now, but it's counterbalanced by the fact that I now have Ohio going Democratic, as a lot of the polling indicates that race is a 50-50 tossup right now. Also, I now have Illinois as a tossup, though I still feel that the Democrats will hold it in the end.

Other than that I modified a few percentages, but nothing drastic.


Version: 10

Three minor changes for this map. First, Thune wins South Dakota with over 80% of the vote, as the Democrats have been unable to recruit a challenger there. Second, I've put the NY Special election at Strong Dem, and I'll be keeping it there unless the Republicans can actually find a challenger that anyone has ever heard of. Finally, I've changed Alabama from 70% Rep to 60% Rep.


Version: 9

A few minor changes to some percentages, otherwise similar to the last map.

Note: If the Republicans were to somehow retake control of the Senate, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ben Nelson switch parties. He's voting with the Republicans more than Olympia Snowe lately.


Version: 8

I've decided that, until they start polling the Tea Party candidate in the Nevada race, I'm going to make it a Republican pickup.

I've also switched Florida back to lean Republican from strong Republican. The two most recent non-Rasmussen polls seem to show that Meek has at least a small shot at an upset victory there against Rubio, who has absolutely locked up the Republican nomination.

I'm really resenting the lack of non-Rasmussen polling in Missouri.


Version: 7

I've moved Florida from Lean Rep to Strong Rep. The only possible way that seat doesn't go to the Republicans is if Charlie Crist decides to either switch parties or become an independent.

Based on a bit of polling I've seen recently, I've moved Indiana into the tossup column. I'm still not optimistic there, though.

I've also moved Connecticut into the Strong Dem category. It seems that Dodd getting out of the race has locked that one up for the Democrats.

If Bill Halter manages to beat Blanche Lincoln in the Arkansas primary, that race could become interesting. He'd at least have the advantage of being able to run as an outsider. But right now I'm not willing to assume that will happen.

I wish there were more non-Rasmussen polling for the Colorado race. I think the Dems have a better chance there than the Rassmussen polling indicates.

I considered changing Nevada either a Republican win or to Reid with less than 40%, but ended up deciding to leave that one as it is. I'm sure I'll come back to it in the future.

There are actually two polls out recently showing Specter with the lead again here in Pennsylvania. The Franklin and Marshall poll seemed a bit quirky, but I've come to expect that with their polling. Still, my faith in Arlen's ability to thread the needle of both surviving the Democratic primary and winning the general election seems slightly more reasonable today than it did a few weeks ago.


Version: 6

Michael Bennet is making himself a hero for the progressives with this new push for the public option. If it goes through, he's going to get a lot of credit, and hopefully enough votes to win in November.


Version: 5

Thank you, Evan Bayh, for giving away an otherwise safe Senate seat.

Also, I think the Tea Party candidate will siphon enough votes away from the Republican in Nevada for Reid to win.


Version: 4

No changes in terms of states won for this map, but I have changed a few of the confidence levels. As I see it, Gillibrand is fairly likely to win re-election in the NY special election, so that is now no longer a tossup. Also, I now have Delaware as lean Republican. Finally, some of the polling I've seen recently indicates that Ohio is trending toward being a competitive race, so that is now listed as a tossup.

Everything else is the same.


Version: 3

I think I may have slightly overreacted on that last map.

After last week's appearance by Obama at the Republican Q&A session, the Democratic base seems a bit more excited than it had been. Probably not enough to keep from losing any seats, but hopefully enough to perhaps prevent a catastrophe in November. He also needs to keep up the pressure on the banks and get a new jobs bill through, those things can help get the independents and moderate Dems back. I think this proposal to get rid of the insurance anti-trust exemption should play well with the center as well.

Arkansas and North Dakota appear to be guaranteed losses. Delaware seems quite likely to go Republican, but right now the election is far enough away that I'm keeping it as a tossup.


Version: 2

If Obama goes through with this spending freeze, he's going to tank the economy, and the Democrats will get massacred in November. I can't believe someone from the party of FDR is planning on adopting the policies of Hoover. Also, if he doesn't grow a damn spine and get a stronger health reform plan through, it could be worse than this.

The Republicans will vote Republican because that's what they do.

The Independents will vote Republican because he tanks the economy.

The Democrats will stay at home because they've been betrayed. Just like they did in Massachusetts.


Version: 1

I see the Republicans picking up 2 to 4 currently Democratic seats. North Dakota is sure to go now that Dorgan is not running for re-election. Likewise, the Democrats shouldn't have a problem holding Connecticut with Dodd not running. Democrats probably lose one of either Nevada, Arkansas, or Delaware, but I'm not willing to predict which. If they get their act together they should have at least a chance of picking up New Hampshire, but I'm not counting on them doing that.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 446
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie



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