Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:16

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	10	8	18	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	38	49
Republican	26	23	49
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
62	34	28

Analysis

Was able to get rid of all the tossups...

State Previous Current
MD D50S D60S
NV R40T R50L
WV D50L D50S

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 15

Changed WV from R50T to D50L

Version: 14

State Previous Current
AK R30T R30L
AZ R50S R60S
FL R50S R40S
HI D70S D60S
IL R50T R40L
IA R50S R60S
NY (S) D60S D50S
WA R50T D50S
WV R50L R50T

Version: 13

State Previous Current
AK R50S R30T
AZ R60S R50S
AR R60S R50S
CA D40S D50S
FL R40L R50S
IL D50L R50T
NY D70S D60S
NY(S) D60S D50S
SD R50S R90S
WV D50S R50L
WI D50T R50S

Version: 12

Switched Delaware from R50S to D50S after O'Donnell ended up winning last night's primary and screwing the GOP's chances of that seat.

Version: 11

State Previous Current
AK R60S R50S
AR R50S R60S
CA D50S D40S
CO R50L R50S
CT D60S D50S
FL R30T R40L
HI D60S D70S
ID R80S R70S
IL R50T D50T
MD D60S D50S
MO R50L R50S
NV R50S R40T
OH R50T R50S
OK R50S R60S
PA R50L R50S
SC R50S R60S
VT D70S D60S
WA D50T R50T
WV N/A D50S
WI D50S D50T

Version: 10

State Previous Current
AR R50L R50S
IL D50L R50T
IN R50L R50S
IA R60S R50S
NY (S) D50S D60S
ND R60S R70S
OR D60S D50S

Version: 9

Changed WA from Strong D to Tossup D.

Version: 8

Changed Ohio from Lean to Tossup.

Version: 7

Changed FL to R50S to R30T to reflect Crist running as an Independent. I think the polls overestimate him now a bit, because he's going to have to overcome 2 things:

1. Significant hit to funding.
2. Anger from people who see him as a flip flopper.

Version: 6

State Previous Current
AK R50S R60S
AR R50T R50L
CT D50S D60S
DE D50L D50S
ID R90S R80S
IN D50S R50L
MO R50T R50L
NV R50L R50S
NY(S) D50T D50S
PA R50T R50L

Version: 5

State Previous Current
AR D50T R50T
DE R50T R50L
IL D50T D50L
IN D60T D50T
KY R50L R50S
MO D50L R50T
NH R50L R50S
ND R50S R60S
OH R50T R50L
PA D50T R50T

Version: 4

Changed CT and ND from Tossup to Strong.

Version: 3

Changed CT from R50L to D50T now that Dodd has said he'll resign.

Changed ND from D50L to R50T now that Dorgan has said he'll resign.

Version: 2

State Previous Current
CO R50T R50L
KY R50S R50T
NV R50T R50L
NY(S) D50L D50T
ND D60S D50L

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	23	74	T	115
2022 Senate	34/35	31/35	65/70	92.9%	1	1	3	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	1	1	5	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	6	1	T	118
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	1	6	179	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	1	4	44	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	6	51	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	4	14	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%	1	1	42	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	26/36	56/72	77.8%	1	3	94	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	2	40	T	149
2016 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	2	1	35	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	23/34	54/68	79.4%	1	1	6	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	2	1	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	11	8	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	24/36	57/72	79.2%	3	5	82	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	18/36	47/72	65.3%	3	1	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	6	17	T	153
2012 President	54/56	46/56	100/112	89.3%	7	1	115	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	18/33	48/66	72.7%	5	1	144	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	22/52	65/104	62.5%	37	-	22	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	1	332	79	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	16	0	21	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	27/37	62/74	83.8%	8	0	17	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	6	1	T	103
2008 President	51/56	45/56	96/112	85.7%	32	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	14	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	10	1	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	26/52	68/104	65.4%	30	-	20	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	19/49	60/98	61.2%	31	-	11	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	4	21	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	10	2	232	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	14	1	36	T	312
2004 President	51/56	25/56	76/112	67.9%	24	4	1441	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	900/994	637/994	1537/1988	77.3%