I'm going out on a limb for Colorado, Nevada and Illinois. We'll see. Conway blew it Kentucky.

The situation's not looking so great for Democrats, to say the least.

Thus, my prediction's gotten somewhat more grim - I'm now predicting (relatively narrow) Republican wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Kentucky - although KY's been crazy poll-wise, so I'm assuming Paul's lead isn't the silly 15 points reported in one poll.

Washington is a tossup, although I think Murray will eke out a win. Same goes for Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

Charlie Crist has fallen behind in the polls in Flordia, and I think it's safe to say this one leans Republican.

Since Tea Party darling won the Republican nomination in Alaska, some polling's suggested a close race, but don't you believe it. The only thing that will make this close is if Murkowski runs as a third party candidate, and even then Miller's the favourite.

One ray of hope for Democrats - Blunt's lead in Missouri isn't insurmountable, and who knows what's going on in Kentucky? And I'm still banking on a narrow D win in Illinois.

Oh, and if Tea Party candidate Christine O' Donnell wins the Republican nomination in Delaware, prospects of a Republican Senate takeover begin to fade. If Castle gets the nod, he almost certainly wins the Senate seat.

Well, since the last time I made a prediction, the situation's changed a little, if not dramatically.

It's looking near certain that McCain wil survive his primary challenge, so I've moved my confidence in Arizona going R to strong.

Obviously, DeMint is even safer in South Carolina against Alvin Greene (...) so he'll probably break 70% and hurt the rest of the Dem. ticket, too.

I'm feeling more and more confident that Crist is going to win Florida, so I've moved that to "lean" from "tossup".

In North Carolina, Burr's improved in polling since my last prediction, so I'm now thinking he's going to hold on, if somewhat narrowly.

Now, Wisconsin: I don't really want to believe it, but the polling is showing a very narrow race between Russ Feingold and his virtually unknown Republican challenger. I'm still putting it in the Democratic column, but it's going to be close, and it's not like Feingold's ever won in a landslide...

This is a pretty optimistic scenario for the Democrats. I've got Reid hanging on in Nevada, Rand Paul imploding in Kentucky, and Bennett pulling out a narrow victory in Colorado.

Realistically, the confidence map says it all. This could easily turn into a 7 (even 7+) seat win for the Republicans, but I'm fairly bullish about the Democrat's prospects come November.

Oh, about North Carolina: I'd assumed that Burr was safe for re-election, but polling's showed the contest tightening, so I took a bit of a gamble. Apart from that, any really bizzare discrepancies (that can't be explained by me being A LIBERAL HACK!!) are probably as a result of me forgetting to change something from the default values in the, uh, predict-o-meter.

So, anyway, I've apparently created a kind of Senatorial musical chairs, with seat-swapping galore. Naturally, I fully expect to have to embarassingly change my prediction drastically in the coming months...