Comments History
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hideVersion: 170
HAPPY BIRTHDAY BLANCHE!!!!!!!!!!!
HAPPY 50TH!!!!!!
Version: 168
IF-
1. There was evidence of vote-tampering (which I believe still happened)
2. Vic Rawl ran as an independent.
Version: 166
Sorry, guys, I forgot to set this map for no comments.
Version: 158
KEEP FIGHTING, ROBIN!
Version: 157
GO ROBIN!!!
STAND UP TO FOX NEWS!!!!!!!!!
Version: 156
GO BLANCHE!!
Version: 155
God Bless the Republican Primary Voters of Deleware.
Ohio- In an attmept to preserve the Tossup status on aggerate.
Version: 154
70's are Pirmary day endorsments.
GO BLANCHE!!
Version: 153
_____________________________________________
Thank you, Christine O'Donnell.
Thank you, very, VERY much.
YYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!
Version: 152
Version: 151
A day of silence in honor of those who lost their lives on 9/11.
_____________________________________________
Version: 146
May God bless America's workers.
Version: 144
Map reset completed based on data from Electoral-Vote.com*
*Exceptions are
Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)
SoS Robin Carnahan (D-MO)
Gov. Charlie Crist (I-FL)
Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO)
All of which I gave the lead because of pollster bias (most notably Rasmussen) and also because I either A. support them fully and an very enthusiastic about them or B. hate their opponents or C. both.
Version: 130
30's indicate potential recount races.
Version: 117
If only Lincoln wasn't being dragged down by Obama...
Version: 114
Bad times for Plains Democrats.
Version: 112
It looks like I'm voting for Moran this fall.
The Democrats are morons.
Version: 110
Happy Colorado Day!
Version: 107
Reflects current averages from RCP, except in Missouri, where there is no relevant data.
Version: 106
Back to reality
Version: 104
On news of this new poll from Misouri showing Blunt leading Carnahan (a steaming pile of BS), wait a second, Roy Blunt's chances of winning went DOWN????
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=664437&z=1280185053517
Version: 102
Happy Birthday to Governor Charlie Crist.
Version: 100
100!!!!!!!
Either Lincoln's going to surge back in front or she's roadkill. It'll be one or the other and I hope it's the former.
Version: 98
Dream scenario- not reality.
Version: 97
Odds of takeover based on today's polling data
ND-100%
AR-100%
IN-95%
DE-85%
CO-73%
PA-62%
FL-55%
MO-52%
IL-49%
WA-45%
OH-42%
Version: 96
Crist was expected to be the nominee, not Rubio, so that is the explanation for I>60.
Version: 94
If the election were held today...
Version: 92
Happy, LR?
This is also assuming this third-party campaign divides Republicans 50-50 between Vitter and the Sherriff (who's name I don't know).
Version: 91
Adjusted for possible Murray-Didier situation.
Version: 82
WISCONSIN
Y'know, Feingold losing would get a "meh" reaction out of me.
He's a perfectionist.
I HATE political profectionists.
Cutting their nose off despite their face.
Just look at the Wall St. Reform Bill, where he is the only announced Democrat to plan to vote no.
What's better, a rouge Dem or a consistent Republican?
MISSOURI
Polling continues to be tight, but Carnahan holds a 1 point lead today over Rep. Roy Blunt.
ARKANSAS
C'mon, give us a maccaca momment, John...
FLORIDA
We need fresh polling here. The old polls are getting stale.
Version: 79
KS21 Proudly Presents
The 1st Annual
"CANADA DAY MAP"
It is 8 A.M. E.T. on November 1, 2010.
Canadians were just finishing up their pancakes with maple syrup when J.D. Hayworth makes a stunning statement-
"CANADIAN BACON IS NOT CANADIAN!!!!!"
Instantly, Canadians are outraged and promise revnege on Mr. Hayworth. Mobs in the streets of Ottawa shout "We will keep our bacon, our syrup, and our health care!!!!"
At 12 P.M., Prime Minister Harper and Parliament declare war on the US.
Canadian forces march through the U.S. to get revenge on Hayworth. Canadian spies poison Barack Obama's food.
By the following day, Novemeber 2, 2010 (Election Day), the Canadians had taken over almost all of America. Washington State and Oregon were spared for some reason.
And then, President Obama, now poisoned and under the control of the Canadians, walks out into the rose garden flanked by mounties. His pupils have now been replaced with small maple leaves.
He says three words:
"Eat Canadian Bacon"
"Eat Canadian Bacon"
"Eat Canadian Bacon"
J.D. Hayworth's head expands to the point where it blocks all sunlight in Arizona.
The same thing that happened with Arizona happened in Nevada, only with Sharron Angle this time. Only one Nevada citizen manages not to notice, Jim Gibbons, likely because he was in an unlit hotel room with a headboard he had severly damaged on the Vegas strip. 'Nuff said.
Micheal Dukasis gets on a Canadian tank marching through Boston and waves to everyone. The video of this goes viral on YouTube the next day.
Mormons in Utah manage to hold out against the invading commies. Sadly, Mike Lee dies of shock when the constitution he knows so much about has been destroyed by those darn socialists. Tim Brigewater announces a Write-In Canidacy and is ahead in the polls 99-1.
Demon Sheep, who figure now would be the best time for a rebellion, invade all of California and set fire to Los Angeles and San Francisco. Nancy Pelosi and Barbara Boxer evacuate the state to run from the invading sheep. They then head to Yukon to set up a live cam to prove that the polar ice caps are melting.
For the rest of America, Canadian troops replace their eyes with ones that have mini maple leaves instead of pupils. People pour into the streets praising Socialized Medicine.
Bernie Sanders gives every member of Congress a bottle of Maple Syrup.
John Boehner has a heart attack.
Dino Rossi starts to explode.
Dennis Kucinich begins to levitate.
Jim Inhofe's eyes burn to the point he can't even see anymore.
Robin Carnahan is elected in Missouri with every single vote except the 100 coming from Republicanville, MO (Mayor: CR). CR himself manages to escape the Canadians and seeks refuge in J.D. Hayworth's now-huge head. Scary.
In Louisiana, David Vitter loses overwhelmingly to Melancon. Vitter is seen partying on Burboun Street in the French Quarter instead delivering a concesion speech. I'll let your imagination make up the rest.
Bill Sali freezes in time.
Tim D'annuzzio seeks refuge in the Ark of the Covenant, now hidden from the sun because J.D. Hayworth's head is in the way.
Sarah Palin manages to save Alaska by shooting those darn commies from a helicopter instead of showing up for an interview with Katie Couric.
Arnold Schwarzenegger goes back to body-building.
Jerry Brown is suffocated by Demon Sheep.
Michelle Bachmann resigns and starts acting in sitcoms.
Rick Perry is rumored to be hiding in a shed in the N. Panhandle. It is also said he was wearing his "Don't Mess With Texas" boots when last seen in public.
As the Election Results come in, Democrats sweep the nation, taking every house seat except those in California (which has been re-named Demon Sheep-topia), Nevada, Utah, Alaska, and Arizona. The Gubenatorial races go the same way.
The following day, confused Americans start bathing in Maple Syrup and eat nothing but Canadian Bacon.
Version: 78
I sense a political apocolypse brewing...
Version: 77
I don't mean to sound the alarm here, but PPP (A Dem Firm) has Russ Feingold within 2 points of Ron Johnson.
I still think Feingold will win.
____________________________________________
Yikes.
Version: 76
Mississippi River seats
AR: Linocln-D(I) (51-46-3)
LA: Vitter-R(I) (53-45-2)
MO: Carnahan-D (52-47-1)
IA: Grassley-R(I) (54-44-2)
IL: Giannoulias-D (39-35-25-1)
WI: Feingold-D(I) (51-46-3)
Version: 75
Has anyone noticed how Melancon is gaining on Vitter?
Version: 71
Time to get back to reality.
Version: 70
**READ THE ENTIRE ANALYSIS BEFORE COMMENTING**
NH: I smell somthing rotten coming from the Ayotte camp. This testifying before the legislature should be interesting.
Illinois: Even though I think Giannoulias has dug himself a political grave, Kirk has done one better: he dug a grave and is now under a pile of dirt.
Arkansas: I think Boozman will suffer the electoral fate of his brother.
Washington: Based on a Murray v. Didier matchup.
Kentucky: We'll see. Paul is like a stick of dynamite getting ready to explode.
Nevada: If Sharron Angle can scare LR, she can scare Nevadans into sending Reid back to the Senate.
Version: 68
This is my dream scenario.
Version: 67
MISSOURI
Carnahan 50.1-47.8
Analysis
OHIO
49-49 TIE
Decided by recount
Analysis
ILIINOIS
Kirk 39-38-21
Analysis
COLORADO
Bennet 49-48
Analysis
PENNSYLVANIA
47-47 TIE
Decided by recount
Analysis
Version: 66
To my humorless foes, here is your obnociously boring "if the election were held today" map. Enjoy it.
______________________________________
Alabama: Democrats got a nobody to run as a sacraficial lamb to the powerful Senator Shelby. That alone is an accomplishment...
Alaska: Whoever wins the GOP Primary will win in a walk.
Arizona: Ditto Alaska because of a recruiting failure for the Democrats. Hopefully they'll knock off Kyl...
Arkansas: Right now Lincoln is behind Boozman by 25 points. However, I expect this race to tighten before election day.
California: Boxer Blimp beats Demon Sheep. Bääääääääääääh.
Colorado: Flip a coin. This is going to be close.
Connecticut: BLumenthal is holding a 10-pt. lead over McMahon. Probably going to stay that way.
Deleware: They better be geting Mike Castle's plaque ready.
Florida: Charlie Crist will win by around sevn points, and could possibly be wider if the National Democrats endorse him.
Georgia: Micheal Thurmond? Really? The moron threw his career away running agianst Isakson.
Hawai'i: Inoyue will be defeated only if hell freezes.
Idaho: Crapo will win with at least 80%.
Illinois: Third-Party Green is taking votes from Giannoulias. However, now that Kirk has been exposed as a joke, this is a toss-up.
Indiana: Coats will crush Ellsworth. End of story.
Iowa: Grassley will win by a decent margin, but far from the 70% wipeout of '04.
Kansas: Moran in a landslide.
Kentucky: This race depends on Paul's ability to screw this thing up for himself.
Louisiana: The Battle of BP. Polls have shown this race tightening, Vitter is now down to a nine-point lead.
Maryland: Eric Wargotz is going for an ego joyride.
Missouri: No explanation nessecary.
Nevada: Reid has a decent chance of winning re-election. Angle is walking the plank and is two steps from falling into the ocean.
New Hampshire: Ayotte in a landslide.
New York: I'm not going to waste your time.
New York Special: Gillibrand wins because of lack of competition.
North Carolina: I have a gut feeling this is the sleeper race of 2010.
North Dakota: Think VA Sen. 2008, only the opposite...
Ohio: Flip a coin.
Oklahoma: No need to prepare to take Tom's Senatorial plaque down...
Oregon: Wyden in a landslide.
Pennsylvania: See Ohio.
South Carolina: This all depends on where Greene got this 10K check.
South Dakota: Thune is (sadly) unopposed.
Utah: Whoever wins the GOP Primary will be Utah's next Senator.
Vermont: I'm not going to waste your time.
Washington: In a Murray v. Didier situation, Murray wins in a landslide. If it's Rossi v. Murray, Murray will win by about 9 points.
Wisconsin: Feingold may have some problems with "Mr. Money Bags" Westlake, but he should still win.
Version: 65
To my humorless foes, here is your obnociously boring "if the election were held today" map. Enjoy it.
______________________________________
Alabama: Democrats got a nobody to run as a sacraficial lamb to the powerful Senator Shelby. That alone is an accomplishment...
Alaska: Whoever wins the GOP Primary will win in a walk.
Arizona: Ditto Alaska because of a recruiting failure for the Democrats. Hopefully they'll knock off Kyl...
Arkansas: Right now Lincoln is behind Boozman by 25 points. However, I expect this race to tighten before election day.
California: Boxer Blimp beats Demon Sheep. Bääääääääääääh.
Colorado: Flip a coin. This is going to be close.
Connecticut: BLumenthal is holding a 10-pt. lead over McMahon. Probably going to stay that way.
Deleware: They better be geting Mike Castle's plaque ready.
Florida: Charlie Crist will win by around sevn points, and could possibly be wider if the National Democrats endorse him.
Georgia: Micheal Thurmond? Really? The moron threw his career away running agianst Isakson.
Hawai'i: Inoyue will be defeated only if hell freezes.
Idaho: Crapo will win with at least 80%.
Illinois: Third-Party Green is taking votes from Giannoulias. However, now that Kirk has been exposed as a joke, this is a toss-up.
Indiana: Coats will crush Ellsworth. End of story.
Iowa: Grassley will win by a decent margin, but far from the 70% wipeout of '04.
Kansas: Moran in a landslide.
Kentucky: This race depends on Paul's ability to screw this thing up for himself.
Louisiana: The Battle of BP. Polls have shown this race tightening, Vitter is now down to a nine-point lead.
Maryland: Eric Wargotz is going for an ego joyride.
Missouri: No explanation nessecary.
Nevada: Reid has a decent chance of winning re-election. Angle is walking the plank and is two steps from falling into the ocean.
New Hampshire: Ayotte in a landslide.
New York: I'm not going to waste your time.
New York Special: Gillibrand wins because of lack of competition.
North Carolina: I have a gut feeling this is the sleeper race of 2010.
North Dakota: Think VA Sen. 2008, only the opposite...
Ohio: Flip a coin.
Oklahoma: No need to prepare to take Tom's Senatorial plaque down...
Oregon: Wyden in a landslide.
Pennsylvania: See Ohio.
South Carolina: This all depends on where Greene got this 10K check.
South Dakota: Thune is (sadly) unopposed.
Utah: Whoever wins the GOP Primary will be Utah's next Senator.
Vermont: I'm not going to waste your time.
Washington: In a Murray v. Didier situation, Murray wins in a landslide. If it's Rossi v. Murray, Murray will win by about 9 points.
Wisconsin: Feingold may have some problems with "Mr. Money Bags" Westlake, but he should still win.
Version: 64
A day of silence in honor of the eleven people that lost their lives on the Deepwater Horizon.
Version: 63
Think about how crazy this map would have seemed a month ago.
NV: Sahrron Angle is a stick of lit dynamite glued to the hands of the national GOP. Expect an explosion soon.
MO, NC: I hold by these positions, and at least in MO, the polls are backing me up. Go Robin!
SC: If this scandal goes bad for the GOP, this would be something like Mark Sanford running for reelection after his "soulmante" was discovered. Who knows? Just a possibility. Polls did have Rawl within 7 points of DeMint before the primary. Vic can win.
WI: Blakeman has been closing in on Feingold. We'll see how this plays out...
WA: I really, really, really don't think Rossi is gonna even be close on election day.
CA: "Baaaaaaaaaaahh" says the sheep as the Boxer Blimp floats overhead calling "weather" a national security threat...
PA: Even though Toomey is ahead today, he is simply too far to the right to be elected in Pennsylvania.
OH: This election will be bought. Fisher has depleated his resources and Portman has more money than ever.
IL: Low turnout will benefit GOP. Kirk will win with under 50%...
Third-Party Green will help Kirk.
LA: Depends on who's more competent with this BP catastrophe. Melancon has a very difficult road ahead...
Version: 61
Robin Carnahan's birthday is August 4th.
Version: 60
Robin Carnahan's birthday is August 4th.
Version: 59
Worst case scenario for Democrats.
Of course, you know I can't give MO to Blunt. Here's why:
1. I don't like him (that's probabaly an understatement)
2. I don't think he'll win even if I was unbiased.
Version: 57
GO BLANCHE!!!!
Version: 48
God Bless our Troops.
Version: 47
No comments on this map. Keep all conversations on 46.
AR? I'm giving it to Lincoln for today. I think Lincoln's a goner so this can be considered just being nice to the senator.
Version: 44
Tossups mean that there is nobody better to vote for. Indies (with the exception of FL(Crist)) mean that I would cast a write-in vote.
In AZ, that is assuming John McCain is the nominee.
Version: 36
The 30's colors indicate statistical ties.
Version: 34
Interesting Races:
IL(D) Kirk-R(60-30)+1R
PA(D) Toomey-R(54-46)+1R
AR(D) Lincoln-D inc.(54-46)-
CO(D) Bennett-D inc.(49-47)-
CT(D) Simmons-R(49-42)+1R
OH(R) Portman-R(49-49)-
FL(R) Crist-I(37-36-27)+1I
NC(R) Marshall-D(49-45)+1D
MO(R) Carnahan-D(55-45)+1D
ND,DE,IN,NV+4R
Version: 25
Today's convention day in UT
Version: 24
As the economy improves, I expect the situation to get better for the Dems.
Version: 22
With all due respect,
DROP IT ON IL!!!!!!!!
It will stay at R + 90 until people quit bombarding my page with this junk!
Version: 21
As always, NO COMMENTS ON MO. I will not budge.
Version: 13
Kentucky is not the most libertarian-friendly state.
Version: 12
Maybe Bennett will not run as an indie and just finish the rest of his term as a Republican.
In Illinois, Giannoulias has no cash flow, no support from Obama, and corruption bringing down every Democrat in the state, do the Dems have a chance? Not much of one.
Ohio: Is Fisher spending too much money? It seems like it. Portman is raking in the money and is developing a huge CoH lead.
Version: 11
I never thought that Illinois could vote Republican (with the nail-biter exception of Fmr. Sen. Fitzgerald.) With Broadway Bank in Gov't hands, Giannoulias's chances fell a ton.
Version: 10
Just think, this was a map many thought realistic around the election of Obama. Things change in ways you never expect them too. Now the Dems will be thankful if the GOP gains only four seats.
Version: 9
Until the IL Dem Party pulls their act together, I will keep IL at Lean R.
In Pennsylvania, Toomey will be labled as a right-wing nut. It's probable that it could work too. In Arizona, I think John McCain will get through the primary, although by a very small margin, in which case this race would become very boring.
Version: 8
Today is Indie Day. I will show a possible scenario assuming Bob Bennett, John McCain and Charlie Crist are defeated in their primaries and run as independents. These series of events could put a hole in the GOP's otherwise flawless plan to get at least 46 seats, possibly up to 48. However, I doubt that Bennett would run as an indie, but it is a possibility.
This map also shows the effect that a Tea Party candidate could have on Nevada. In this race, I think that Reid would get 36, Lowden 34, and the Tea Partier 25.
Version: 7
CT: Rich, if you want to win, try to not flop when debating an unknown opponent.
Version: 6
Specter is collasping and a very interesting primary (which until today I considered uncompetetive) up ahead tells me that this, for the moment, I Toomey's race to lose.
Until I have evidence that Giannoulias has won back independents and some democrats, I'll flip this seat to the GOP.
Will Bennet's media blitz pay off? We'll see.
I'm still waiting for Burr's numbers to collapse. His approval numbers are pitiful.
Competetive Seats
MO Carnahan-D-50 Blunt-R-48 Others-2
OH Fisher-D-52 Portman-R-47 Others-1
OH Portman-R-48 Brunner-D 47 Others-5
IL Kirk-R-47 Giannoulias-D-46 Others-7
NC Burr-R inc.-55 Marshall-D-43 Others-2
PA Toomey-R-54 Specter-D inc.-44 Others-2
PA Tommey-R-56 Sestak-D-42 Others-2
CO Norton-R-52 Bennett-D inc.-47 Others-1
Bye-Bye seats
IN
ND
DE
NV
AR
Pickup: +6.5 R
Version: 4
I'm seeing Fisher's momentum fade a little.
No gaffe, no D win in NC.
Version: 3
This Sunday's top 10 takeovers:
1.ND(D) 100.0% Winner: John Hooven
2.DE(D) 99.0% Winner: Mike Castle
Tie for 3.
3.AR(D) 95.0% Winner: John Boozman
3.NV(D) 95.0% Winner: Sue Lowden
5.IN(D) 70.0% Winner: Dan Coats
6.MO(R) 55.0% Winner: Robin Carnahan
7.OH(R) 52.5% Winner: Lee Fisher
8.NC(R) 50.5% Winner: Elaine Marshall
--------------
9.CO(D) 47.5% Winner: Michael Bennett (I)
10.PA(D) 45.5% Winner: Arlen Specter (I)
Down the Line
11.IL(D) 45.0%
12.CA(D) 42.5%
13.LA(R) 37.5%
14.GA(R) 32.5%
15.KY(R) 30.0%
Confidence Map Key:
100-70% of pary winning seat=Strong
69-60% of party winning seat=Lean
59-50% of party winning seat=Toss-up
Version: 2
Toaday the toss-ups are CO, MO, OH, IL, PA & NC. All will go to the D's in the end. In IL, corruption may not be enough to flip the seat in this very Democratic state.
TOSS UPS
MO:Carnahan(D) 49, Blunt(R) 48 D TAKEOVER
OH:Fisher(D) 47, Portman(R) 45 D TAKEOVER
PA: Specter(D-inc) 51, Toomey(R) 47 D HOLD
NC: Marshall(D) 47, Burr(R-inc) 44 D TAKOVER
CO: Bennett(D-inc) 46, Norton(R) 44 D HOLD
IL: (however you spell his name)(D) 49, Kirk(R) ,47 D HOLD