2010 Midterm Elections – FINAL Senate Prediction(Bonncaruso)

I am going to keep this analysis short and very direct.

SENATE: (statistics only) D51 / R49
SENATE: (with gut feeling) D52 / R48

In the first comment on this map are two tables I have created. The first one shows the trend shift between my last map and 10/29 (2 weeks). The second table shows the trend shift over the last 5 days, from 10/29 to today. The commentary to those tables is very enlightening.

Any polls that may come in today are NOT in my calculations. Frankly, any last minute hoping over a +/-0.01 variance is not going to change anything, even in the three closest races.

We knew all along that this would be a republican year, and indeed it will be, and it will be a big year for the GOP. And, in accordance with my promise to be fair and impartial, I am now reporting that the GOP wave will be the biggest I have seen in my lifetime, if the statistics hold.

It has also been a year for some very dishonest and misleading polling - of this I am 100% sure. And after the results are finalized, I will be doing, as I indicated on the thread to my last map, a major statistical analysis comparing the pollsters figures and the actual results, both for 2008 and 2010. First came the R2000 scandal, which dismayed me greatly. Then we have the fact that one pollster, RASMUSSEN, literally covered 1/3 of all polling in this year, which has caused an undeniable "house-effect" skew. Whether a pollster drives the narrative or whether the media frenzy drives this all is, however, unimportant at this time.

Nonetheless, it is going to be a massive republican blowout, and let me tell you why:

1.) Although I am no huge fan of generic ballot statistics, when Gallup, of all pollsters, shows the GOP going into election day with a +15 lead, 55-40, then you know that the wave has become a tsunami of unprecedented proportions for the GOP. If it were only Gallup to show the GOP with a double digit lead over the democrats, that would be one thing. But of the seven most recent generic matchups, the GOP is in double digits in four of them: Gallup (+15), Rasmussen (+12), CNN (+10) and FOX (+13). I think we can say with fairness here that two of these pollsters have been more favorable to the republicans in the past and two of them have been more favorable to the democrats in the past. When these four agree with each other this much, then you know that something is afoot. Even in years where republicans have done very, very well, the parity was usually 0 or maybe 1% for the democrats. With a double digit lead for the GOP looking very, very likely, then the wave is sure to function according to the following principle:

"A rising tide lifts all boats".

2.) OHIO. Ohio is without a doubt the quintessential battleground state and was considered a real DEM pick-up opportunity. I also hitched OHIO onto my predictions the entire time and I stick with this technique. Fisher has given up in OHIO, Portman will be the next Senator from the Buckeye state and the current margin mean is a BLOWOUT +18.30% - 3.30% above the Gallup final generic figure, which is about right. Assuming the nominal 3 point lead for a seat where the current senator is a republican, this figure matches what we are seeing coming out of the generic polling. Also, FLORIDA, which is showing GOP +15.75 (yes, I know, a three man race, but...) makes yet another state in the trifecta that is moving boldly red. Which causes me to think that Toomey will win bigger in PA than the stats say, as PA is the third state in the Trifecta.

3.) RARE JAZZ CONGRESS is now projecting 81 GOP and 7 DEM pick-ups in the house, making for a net shift of 74 seats in the House of Representatives, also indicating an almost mirror image of the current power structure in the house.

Therefore, for the Senate, I have decided to stick 100% with the end statistics and those end statistics show 8 GOP pick-ups, in descending order of probable margin: ND, AR, IN, WI, PA, NV, IL, CO.

The democrats will maintain a razor-thin majority in the senate.

Of the remaining seats in question: we have seen the DEMS pull away in CA - Boxer is holding at a +6.0 mean, outside the battleground zone, and Brown will landslide in the gubernatorial - and this in spite of a massive GOP wave going on in most of the rest of the Union. Both DEM seats in NY and the seats in VT, OR and HI were never in play; the seat in DE and the seat in CT are both safe. Even if the GOP wave were to crest to +20 (generically speaking) today, those seats will still be DEM seats.

WV is moving demonstrably to Manchin. Even Rasmussen has Manchin over 50% now. It will be a lean win, but Manchin will be the next senator from WV.

Remaining is WA (Murray vs. Rossi). It has been close the entire time. However, of the 22 polls since Labor Day, Murray has lead in 15, one was a tie, and Rossi has lead in 6: 4 of them were RAS polls, one was Fabrizio (R) and interestingly enough, by 2 points in the last PPP. But even more fascinating is that the FOX poll shows Murray in the lead by 2 points. Complicating all of this is that fact that 30% of all WA ballots have already been turned in. In King County, it is by 38%. In Pierce County, it is 43%. Since those ballots from overwhelmingly democratic counties have already come in before the polls in WA tightened again, the statistical probability is very high that Murray narrowly retains her seat. And there are certain pollsters who know the region best. Elway knows WA better than any other pollster, just as Selzer knows IA, IL and IN better than the rest. Murray's internals show her up by 8, which would concur with stats showing her sweeping King County 58-42. I would say that enough of the vote is locked in to ensure a lean victory, much as was the case in FLORIDA in the 2008 GE.

Finally: Alaska. Folks, there is just not enough empiric data to make even an informed guess. What we do know about Alaska is that it is usually a very, very strong GOP state where GOP candidates also chip off a good percentage of the democratic vote. I think it would take a miracle for MacAdams (D) to surge through the center and take the election. The probability is much higher that Murkowski or Miller wins.

So, in this election we will see two curses broken: the North Carolina curse and the curse of both houses of congress flipping when the house of representatives is bound to flip.

The stats say that the GOP will pick-up 8 seats. I think the real zone is between 7 and 9. Yes, the GOP could eek out a win in WA, or on the flip side, there is also the statistical probability that it will not be able to flip all three of those narrow, narrow states: NV, CO, IL. But like I said, I have decided to stick 100% with statistics pure on this one and let the chips fall where they fall. Note that Nate Silver says likewise. He predicts a 52-48 senate, but his map shows a 51-49 senate.

2010 Midterm Elections – Senate Prediction No. 8 (Bonncaruso)
Prediction No. 9 will be the semi-final prediction, with tossups still allowed. Prediction No. 10 will be the final prediction, without tossups.
Starting with No. 9, I will be projecting final outcomes down to the 10th of a percentage point as I did in 2008.

Please read the ENTIRE analysis before commenting. This analysis is 90% statistics; the other 10% is gut feeling that I allow myself. I have only one statistical toss-up listed as a toss-up on the map. For the other 3 battlefields, I am now ready to make a call as to the winner.

Even with 10% gut feeling, I consider my analyses to be among the most balanced, most fair, and at the end of the day, among the most accurate and non-partisan among all statistics buffs. Any republican reading my analyses should be able to see this immediately, in spite of the fact that I am a declared democrat, and therefore, partisan.

The end of this analysis is not for the eyes of children. If you have never sworn in your life, you should avoid the end of my analysis.

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – a sideline comment

WARNING: be very, very careful about trying to discern a wave in the House of Representatives. That being said, there is now enough polling coming out in key districts and also enough generic polling to confirm that a large GOP wave is going to happen in November.

In the last analysis, I wrote:

"I suspect that the GOP has an 80% chance of taking the House of Representatives. There are good seventy seats in play."

I now give the GOP a more than 95% chance of picking up the house.
The writer of RAREJAZZCONGRESS is predicting 77 GOP pick-ups and 9 DEM pick-ups, resulting in a flip in the House, resulting in a net GOP +67 pickups and a house that will be 247 GOP / 188 DEM and therefore an almost mirror image of the current House from 2009-2011. Though this is a possibility, I suspect that the majority margin will be less than this. Either way, predicting the house is a lot like shooting fish in a deep, dark barrel full of muddy water - CD polling is always a more inexact science than statewide polling for SEN or GOV. Also, in a historical context, a shift of 50 seats is mild in comparison to some of the wild shifts in the house that took place in the early 20th century through the beginning of the cold war. However, the statistical average over the last 40 years has been around 27 seats. Plus, we have the propaganda factor now in full swing, even in places like AZ-07 (Grijalva). About two months after the mid-terms, I will put out a major post-mortem on the house, with in-depth analyses of the seats that flipped either way.

I also wrote in the last analysis:

But the bellwether for much of this is the state of OHIO, which is trending very, very strongly toward the GOP.

And the trend continues. Example: the DNC has pulled funding out of OH-01 (Driehaus). Triage for DEMS has begun.

Note: every time the House of Representatives has flipped in a mid-term, the Senate has also flipped. This year may break that strain. It is just too hard to tell for sure. The results of the Senate races may come down to one single race, for instance, IL. And we must also face the possibility of a Minnesota-like recount that could take months to sort out. In this case, the balance of power could be very hard to define for a couple of months. Especially with one very opportunistic independent in the Senate who more often than not acts like a republican: Lieberman. Lieberman, btw, is looking absolutely bound for electoral defeat in 2012, if early polls are to be believed. Seeing a Blanche Lincoln like defeat in 2012, Lieberman could very well decide to go out in a blaze of glory (or infamy, depending upon your political orientation) at the end of his fascinating career and flip the Senate for the GOP ala Jeffords for the DEMS in 2001. The list of possible permutations of what can happen in the US Senate even months after the election is pretty long and none of it is out of this world or unrealistic.

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Recent Developments:

The strongest developments since Prediction No. 7 have been the solidification of GOP leads in OH and NC into massive landslide margins, plus the Johnson takeover in WI, where I am moving WI to a GOP pick-up. Then there is the massive shift in WV, moving it into the absolute tossup category.

But the DEMS have also solidified their leads in CT, DE, CA and WA, most notably in DE but also in WA.

It is now 19 days to the mid-term elections.

CHANGES FROM PREDICTION NUMBER 7:
The wave:

WISCONSIN – moves from tossup/battleground to moderate GOP pick-up.
COLORADO - moves from tossup/battleground to lean GOP pick-up, in spite of tossup statistics
WEST VIRGINIA – moves from DEM to tossup/battleground.
ALASKA – moves from tossup to GOP retention (regardless of Miller or Murkowski winning). the projected Margin is momentarily indiscernable.
MISSOURI – moves from lean GOP to moderate GOP.

The counter-wave:

WASHINGTON – moves from lean DEM to moderate DEM.

HOLDS FROM PREDICTION NUMBER 6:

DELAWARE – remains strong DEM.
NEVADA – remains lean DEM, in spite of tossup statistics
ILLINOIS – remains lean DEM, in spite of tossup statistics.
FLORIDA – remains a likely GOP hold.
OHIO - remains a strong GOP hold.
NORTH CAROLINA – remains a strong GOP hold.

Possible Shifts to come in analysis number 9, to come out in 10 days or so:

PENNSYLVANIA – remains lean GOP, but the race is tightening. PA could land in the tossups right before election day. Stay tuned.
KENTUCKY - remains lean GOP. However, KY may just land in the tossups again. Stay tuned.


So, let's get started:

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In WISCONSIN, a major shift has occured, the equivalent of about 8.5 on the Richter Scale of electioneering: Feingold, liberal lion in the Senate, is most likely going to lose his seat. WISCONSIN will be an GOP pick-up, which counters the gift they handed the DEMS in DE with O'Donnell. BTW, I am also not a witch. :) :)

RCP, had Johnson at +1.8 in September, he is now at +7.3 (shift= Johnson +5.5), which moves the race out of the battleground territory. Pollster.com had it at Johnson +6.1 in September, he is now at +7.8 (shift= Johnson +1.7). Either way, it is no longer a battleground and the trend is decisively for the GOP.

In prediction number 7 , I wrote the following criticism, which no longer holds:

„BIG BIG BIG caveat: the only pollster to poll this state in 60 days was Rasmussen. Yes, the last poll showed it suddenly with Johnson at +7, but wait until Badger (which was VERY accurate in 2008 btw) and Magellan and PPP put in their two cents worth.“

Well, other pollsters have put their 2 cents in, and they all show that Johnson has taken the race away from Russ Feingold.

Out of fairness to myself, I also wrote in analysis 7:

"Indeed, an a major wave, WI could become a GOP pickup. But until the statistical gene pool is more healthy than this, there is no real way to know. We do know that Rasmussen has played too prominent a role in all of this."

Yup. The latest Feingold internal shows him up by 1, but internals are internals. The race is now Johnson's to lose. Can Feingold turn it around? Doubtful. Time is not on his side, and Johnson has come in over 50 in enough polls to show that he is getting a "lock" on the race. In other words, I am using the same criteria with Johnson as I am using with Patty Murray in WA or in any other race, for that matter.

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WEST VIRGINIA

In Analysis number 7, I wrote:

"Finally, there has been some crazy speculation out there about WV. I have never in my life seen an incumbent with 70%+ approval ratings lose an election. And though Manchin is not the incumbent senator from WV, he is the incumbent Governor. He will win this special election."

Well, I was wrong. Takes a big man to admit it, and I admit it. I am as shocked as most experienced political statisticians around the country. WV has become a real horserace and is proof positive of a massive GOP wave building.

Here the current stats. I have no previous averages to compare them with:

RCP currently shows the race as an absolute tie: 46-46. The margin of dueling polls could not be more perfect mirror images of each other: RAS has Raese by +3, PPP has Manchin by +3, CNN shows an absolute tie: 44-44. Internals for each campaign show their guy ahead. Pollster.com has the race at Manchin +0.8.

No matter how you slice it, Manchin has lost considerable ground since July and the unthinkable may just happen: a republican may take Robert Byrd's seat in the senate. So, it is no surprise that Manchin has put out an ad showing him shooting up things while dressed in mountain attire. I wish I could say that the incumbency will help Manchin here, but apparently it is not. And the democratic machinery in WV is vastly different than in IL. The one bright light in this all is that no one is really thinking that any of the 3 CDs in WV will flip. The ad market in WV is cheap, so you can get a lot of bang for your buck. This will be a race to watch closely. This is the only close race that I am not willing to call yet.

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In COLORADO, RCP had the race Buck at +1.8, still very well within the battleground zone. He is now at +3.0 (shift= Buck +1.2), still within the battleground zone.. Pollster.com had it at Buck +3.7 in September, he is now at +3.9 (shift= Buck +0.2)

In prediction number 7, I wrote:

"Interestingly enough, this state is not yet showing the GOP wave as OHIO is. The very wild and wooly gubernatorial race in CO may be playing a role here, plus let us not forget the hispanic component in this state, a factor that is insignificant in OH."

Indeed, the race is barely budging here. And I do think that the hispanic component is a factor, also Buck's vitriolic comments about women. If we see the BIG DOG (Clinton) coming more often to CO, then it means that this is still a horserace. And still a tossup. But I give the GOP the better chances at the end of the day. LEAN GOP PICK-UP

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In DELAWARE, the Tea-Party upset (Christine O'Donnell) over Mike Castle prompted an IMMEDIATE rating change by every professional pollster, pundit and analysist in the nation, regardless of political affiliation. It goes without saying that Christine O'Donell is one of the three worst candidates in this cycle (next to Sharron Angle and Alvin Greene) and absolutely unfit to be senator from „The Diamond State“. RCP showed Coons at +12.7 in September, he is now at +18.3 (shift= Coons +6.1) .Pollster.com showed an average of Coons +14.3 in September, he is now at +19.1 (shift= Coons +4.7). Conns has hit 57% in two polls and come in over +20 in one poll. DE is now in firewall DEM territory.

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In ALASKA, the polling in a three-way race is all over the board, but one aspect is consistent: McAdams comes out on the bottom. So, regardless as to whether Miller wins or Murkowski pulls it out with the write-in vote, the GOP will retain this seat. It is currently worthless to try to analyse these numbers.

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In FLORIDA,RCP, showed Rubio at +9.8 in September, he is now at +16.2 (shift = Rubio +6.4). Pollster.com had Rubio +10.8 in September, he is now at +14.1 (shift = Rubio +3.3). Barring a Meek exit of the race, which must happen before the end of the day tomorrow (and I see no indication of this happening), Rubio will win. And big at that.

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In KENTUCKY, according to RCP, it has moved from Paul +8.4 in September to Paul +5.3 now. ( shift = Paul -3.3). Pollster.com has moved Paul Paul +7.4 in September to Paul +7.1 (shift = Paul -0.2). However, pollster.com has not included the latest of polls, and interestingly enough, RCP has published an analysis of the KY race that clearly indicates that they think an upset is very, very possible:

>"9/30/10 -- Some recent polls have shown a closer race here, including a SurveyUSA poll that shows Paul with just a two-point lead. By contrast, the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll shows an 11-point Paul lead. What all the polls agree on is that there are still enough undecideds out there for Conway to pull off the win. If the remainder of the undecideds are people who have doubts about Paul, the upset isn't out of the question."

If we see former President Bill Clinton going every other day to KY, if we see the DNC reallocating funds to this race, then there is the strong possibility that this becomes a tossup right before the election.

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In OHIO, the quantum leap that occurred in September has widened. RCP showed Portman +10.7 in September, it is now Portman +15.2 (shift = Portman +4.5). Pollster.com had it at Portman Portman +9.4 in September, it is now Portman +15.1 (shift= Portman +5.7). In OHIO, the two major poll crunching websites are very unified: it will be a GOP landslide in OHIO, which will have coattails at the House and State House level.

In analysis 7, I wrote:

"Sticking with my logic and statistics and sense of fairness to all sides, I pinned Ohio to measuring the GOP wave and I stick with my word. Ohio is now indicating a sizeable GOP wave in November. But voters in OHIO sure did take their time making up their minds. OHIO will be a GOP retention in this cycle."

Confirmed. The DNC is pulling money out of Ohio. I will, however, remind that Bill Clinton took massive hits in OHIO in the 1994 mid-term elections and went on to win the Buckeye state very handily in the 1996 GE.

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NORTH CAROLINA the so-called NC curse (where the senatorial seat has flipped reliably every 2 cycles) will be broken this year. RCP had it at Burr +13 in September, he is now at +15.7 (shift = Burr +2.7). Pollster.com had it at Burr +10.9 in September, he is now at +13.1 (shift= Burr +2.2).

And this with a republican incumbent with some of the worst approvals numbers this year. NC will be a solid GOP hold. When an unpopular incumbent leads so handily, then you know that a wave is coming.

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In PENNSYLVANIA, we saw measurable movement for Toomey in September. That movement has leveled off and indeed Sestak is making gains, but perhaps too late. RCP which had Toomey at +9 in September now has him at +7.5. (shift= Toomey -1.5). Pollster.com had Toomey at +7.7 in September, he is now at +6.2 (shift = Toomey -1.5). Notice that the negative shift among both poll crunching websites, in spite of differing methodologies, is identical.

In analysis number 7, I wrote:

"The GOP is pulling into a measurable lead in the Keystone state, but this lead is not as commanding as in Ohio. Further, where Portman is loaded with money in Ohio and Fischer is not, in PA the two candidates both have impressive warchests. This race remains lean GOP and could still prove to be a major surprise on election night."

I do not rule this out, however, Sestak's come-from-behind is happening very late and the GOP plus many independent groups are pouring just tons of money into the Keystone state. I expect that the frequency of polling in PA will not pick up in these last three weeks.

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In MISSOURI, the only polling data over the last six months had been dismally empty. But in July, two separate pollsters found Blunt with between +5 and +6 points. RCP showed Blunt at +6 in September, he is now at +9.4 (shift= Blunt +3.4). Pollster.com showed Blunt with +7.2 in September, he is now at +9.2 (shift = Blunt +2.0). Once again, both major poll crunching websites are showing at practically identical shift.

In both cases, Blunt is still outside the MOE and also outside the battleground zone. Relatively fewer undecideds. Moderate GOP.
So, we the two perennial bellwether states, OH and MO, both pointing to solid GOP wins this year. There is just no getting around this fact. But the dynastic element of both families, I believe, is keeping this race closer than in OHIO.

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In NEVADA, the race is stabilizing in Harry Reid's favor, a ray of strong hope for the democrats. Harry Reid's agressive and hard-hitting campaign against Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle is working. And Reid has picked up a number of critical endorsements, including endorsements from GOPers, even in this contentious cycle.

Here the current stats: RCP had Reid at +0.8 in September, he is now at +0.5 (shift = Reid -0.3). Pollster.com had Reid at +1.9 in September, he is now at +0.2 (shift = Reid -1.9). Earlier, both candidates were in the low 40s and there were generally still too many undecideds. That has changed. The vast majority of NV voters have already made up their minds, which means that even the slightest of micro-changes could flip this election. However, that being said ----

In analysis number 7, I wrote the following:

"Yes, those are battleground statistics, but I am sure Harry Reid will eke out a narrow, but resilient win. I bet he will win by more than 3% on election night."

I stand by my prediction. Reid has just picked up too many republican endorsements for Angle to win. It will be close, but Reid will be re-elected.

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In ILLINOIS, RCP had Kirk at +1.3 in September, it is now Giannoulias +0.5 (shift = Giannoulias +1.8). Meanwhile, Pollster.com had it with Kirk +0.4, it is now Kirk +0.7 (shift = Kirk +0.3). IL and NV are the two closest races in the Union. Why the disparity in this case? Well, for some unknown reason, pollster.com, which usually does not include partisan polls for DEMS, has indeed partisan polls. But the most telling is the shift with RAS, which went from Kirk +4 to Giannoulias +1, a 5 point shift toward the DEMs, and this from RAS. Consider that for a second.

In Analysis number 7, I wrote:

"FACIT: ILL looks as battlegroundy as it can get, but at the end of the day, the democratic machinery in IL will retain this seat for the dems. Of this I am sure, just as sure as I am that Christine O'Donell will get trounced in DE."

I stand by this prognositication.

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In WASHINGTON, incumbent Patty Murray continues to hold her ground against Dino Rossi. RCP had it at Murray +4 in September, she remains at +4 (shift= Murray +/- 0.0), however, she comes over 50% in two separate polls and the only polls where Rossi even has a slight lead are republican polls. Pollster.com had it at Murray +5.5, she is now at +3.2 (shift= Murray -2.2).

The ELWAY poll showing Murray creaming Rossi, 55-41, is to be taken seriously. ELWAY practically nailed Obama's win in WA in 2008.
The other factors supporting Murray are a.) west coast, b.) the joking term "Soviet of Seattle" and c.) mail in ballots, with a traditionally extremely high voter turnout and relatively early mail-in returns, which start about now, which means that those votes are already locked in. Murray will retain her seat.

I expect that the next PPP poll will show Murray decidedly ahead and then RAS will have no choice but to also show a lead for her, albeit through gritted teeth.

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Just for grins, let us go back to CALIFORNIA. Here, Boxer is now, according to RCP, holding at +3.7. Fiorina has only led in 4 of 45 polls and has not had a lead since 09/03. According to Pollster.com, Boxer is holding at +4.4. She has a narrow but resilient lead in CA, has actually had it the entire time. The pot legalization issue may be playing a role here. Not to mention that CA is one of the most liberal states in the Union. So it is no wonder that in the case of a small counter wave that the DEMS shore up their positions in CA, WA, NY, DE and CT.



My current prediction sees 6 GOP pick-ups:

NORTH DAKOTA (open, was D)
ARKANSAS (Lincoln, D Incumbent)
INDIANA (open, was D)
PENNSYLVANIA (open, was D)
WISCONSIN (Feingold, D Incumbent)
COLORADO (Bennet, D Incumbent)

It also sees 1 statistical TOSSUP:

WEST VIRGINIA (open, was D)



In the tossup category, the Democratic party has more territory to protect than the GOP. Nonetheless, even if the GOP were to win ALL of the tossups, it would mean 7 pick-ups for the republicans. The possiblity of 9 pick-ups (IL, NV) does exist. I do not see a credible possibility of 10 pick-ups.

I see no credible dem pick-up possibilites, unless Conway continues to pick up motion in KY.

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FACIT: The GOP will definitely pick-up seats in the Senate. It is entirely possible that the Democratic Party picks-up no seats at all. The GOP has a longer list of „FIREWALL“ seats for 2010 than the Democrats. Of the Democratic „FIREWALL“ seats, three are held by incumbents who are getting old (Mikulski, Leahy, Inohue).

Things have changed a lot in the last 26 days. Now it is a matter of estimating when the GOP wave will crest, or if it crests at all.

We may experience an interesting phenomenon: if it ends up being 49-49 in the Senate with two independents, Sanders will 100% side with the Democrats, but what if Lieberman switches sides? Then the Senate would be 50-50, but if Lieberman officially changes his party affiliation completely, it would then be GOP 50, DEM 40, IND 1

If either the GOP or the DEMS fall short by just one seat, there will be recriminations for a long time, but it really doesn't matter. If the House tries to impeach Obama on trumped up crap, the impeachment will die in the Senate, guaranteed. if the GOP barely loses the Senate, and I think it will it will, out of revenge, refuse to ratify the Stark treaty that most have forgotten about.

No matter how you slice it, we are heading toward a clusterf**k ini the Senate for 2 years.

Be careful what you ask for, you just may get it. If the GOP wins both houses of congress and the economy falters more through it's inaction (gridlock), the GOP will have to share the blame for the economy. If the GOP does nothing and the economy gets better (as I am sure it will), then Obama gets the credit. So, I am not really against the GOP taking the congress. This could prove to be a boon for the democratic party in the long run.

I have written in every analysis:

"I expect 2010 to be the nastiest, most expensive, most polarized mid-term cycle in the history of our Union."

And indeed, it is so.

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Here are some good sites to watch the rankings:

The New York Times Senate Rankings

The Cook Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Electoral Vote.com

2010 Senate Midterms WIKI.

2010 Midterm Elections – Senate Prediction No. 7 (Bonncaruso)

Please read the ENTIRE analysis before commenting. This analysis is 90% statistics; the other 10% is gut feeling that I allow myself.. In this analysis, I have written a great deal and much is hyperlinked, but I think it will be worth it for you to read it all. The end of this analysis is not for the eyes of children.

We all know that historically vis-a-vis mid-terms, the party in power has suffered losses. In the last 18 years, we have started to call this a „wave“ for the minority party set to make gains in one or both houses of congress. I did a thorough posting on this on the thread to my first prediction. I also described the wave and its similarities to 1994 and 1982 in the analysis to my third prediction.

Some like to put a number on determining whether a wave is a wave or not. This is probably useless. Statistically, on the average, around 27 seats in the house usually switch hands and 7 seats in the Senate, but the meaning of this depends on the size of the majority party to begin with. I would summize that any wave that results in a switch in one or both houses can be defined as a successful wave.

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – a sideline comment

WARNING: be very, very careful about trying to discern a wave in the House of Representatives. That being said, there is now enough polling coming out in key districts and also enough generic polling to confirm that a large GOP wave is going to happen in November. I suspect that the GOP has an 80% chance of taking the House of Representatives. There are good seventy seats in play. 6 of them are likely DEM pickups (including Castle's seat in DE), which means that the GOP needs to pick up at least 45 seats in order to secure a majority. I think they will pick up upwards of 50 seats, if the current trends continue. On the other hand, Obama's approval numbers are rising. His composite is around 46%, which is where Bill Clinton finally got to shortly before election day in 1994. If Obama rises to 47%-48% before election day, then there is the slimmest of chances that the DEMS will retain the house, but right now, my money is on the GOP taking the house. Back to the polling of certain house seats: the results are providing fascinating data: in some places the GOP is trouncing the DEMS, but in other places (like IA, for instance), DEM incumbents are still holding good leads. And in the west, the hispanic turnout will play a pivotal role in a number of critical house races.

But the bellwether for much of this is the state of OHIO, which is trending very, very strongly toward the GOP. See below.

Everytime the House of Representatives has flipped in a mid-term, the Senate has also flipped. This year may break that strain.

Primary Schedule to the End

As of today, all 50 states have had their primaries. The only event remaining in the LA State primary and CD-02 runoff (if necessary) in October. But the chessboard is now complete and the players are in place.

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Recent Developments:

The strongest developments since Prediction No. 6 have been the two Tea Party upsets in AK and DE, respectively. In AK, Joe Miller's ousting of Lisa Murkowski has now turned the state into a three man race. Since Murkowski made her decision public yesterday, we will first start to get empiric data on this next week. Christine O'Donnell's surprise win over Mike Castle in DE is THE major event of the last 40 days.

It is now less than 50 days to the mid-term elections. Trends and patterns are solidifiying.

CHANGES FROM PREDICTION NUMBER 6:

DELAWARE – moves from likely GOP to strong DEM.
ALASKA – moves from strong GOP to tossup.
FLORIDA – moves from likely independent to likely GOP.
KENTUCKY - moves from tossup/battleground to lean GOP.
OHIO - moves from tossup/battleground to strong GOP.
NORTH CAROLINA – moves from lean GOP to strong GOP.

HOLDS FROM PREDICTION NUMBER 6:

PENNSYLVANIA – remains lean GOP.
MISSOURI – remains lean GOP.
WISCONSIN - remains tossup/battleground.
COLORADO - remains tossup/battleground.
NEVADA – remains lean DEM.
ILLINOIS – remains lean DEM
WASHINGTON – remains lean DEM


So, let's get started:

In DELAWARE, the Tea-Party upset (Christine O'Donnell) over Mike Castle prompted an IMMEDIATE rating change by every professional pollster, pundit and analysist in the nation, regardless of political affiliation. It goes without saying that Christine O'Donell is one of the three worst candidates in this cycle (next to Sharron Angle and Alvin Greene) and absolutely unfit to be senator from „The Diamond State“. RCP shows polling from both PPP and RAS with Coons leading between +7 and +16. RCP has not put out an average yet, but an average of the September polling only would be Coons +12.7.Pollster.com shows an average of Coons +14.3. What should have been a solid GOP pickup becomes, overnight, a solid DEM retention.

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In ALASKA, the suspected and now confirmed re-entrance of Lisa Murkowski into the race thows the entire statistics for AK out the window. The last time there was a 3-way race in AK (1974, I believe), the democrat won. Until there is sufficient polling, I have moved this state into the battlegrounds, and for good reason: initial polling right after Miller's upset win put McAdams, a complete unknown, within 5 points of Miller. Now, a three-man race can go in three ways: Murkowski could theoretically win with a write-in vote, but voters must be able to spell her first and last name reasonably well. Or, because of the major GOP groundswell in the nation, this will simply drive more GOP voters to the polls and Miller ekes out a win, with McAdams in a distant third, similar to what is happening in FLA right now. Or, the DEMS can get really motivated, seeing a real „Hail Mary“ chance here, where Miller and Murkowski split the GOP vote, McAdams runs it up the middle and wins with 39% or something like that. My point is, it is very difficult to draw comparisons here. AK really is a beast for itself, so far away from the mainland. So, for now, until real data comes in, this state goes green.

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In FLORIDA, according to RCP, the game has changed dramatically. Meek is presenting himself as a viable democratic candidate, which is driving DEM voters away from Crist. In a complete turnaround, it has gone from Crist +5.6 in August to Rubio +9.8 in September (shift = Rubio +15.4). Pollster.com also shows similar picture, where it has gone from Crist's +5.3 to Rubio +10.8 (shift = Rubio +16.1).

This forces me to change my prediction. However, a number of pundits are warning that this race is volatile and I could imagine Meek suspending his campaign shortly before the election and throwing his support to Crist were President Obama to call Meek and ask him to do so. But for now, the race is Rubio's to lose.

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In KENTUCKY, according to RCP, it has moved Paul +3.6 in August to Paul +8.4 ( shift = Paul +4.8). Pollster.com has moved Paul from +3.7 in August tom Paul +7.4 (shift = Paul +3.7).

These numbers support the thesis for a strong GOP wave in November. Although Jack Conway is a damned good candidate, one of the very best the DEMS have put out this year, it will probably not be enough in this year. However, this race may very well tighten up again. That being said, Conway has never lead in even one major national poll.

In prediction number 5, I wrote:

„.....Paul has the demographic edge here, and it will probably play out so in the election...... Of the three extremely weak candidates that the GOP has put up (Paul, Kirk, Angle), Paul has the best chances, I think.“

It looks like my words are going to be prophetic here.

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In OHIO, a quantum leap has occurred. RCP showed an average for Portman of +0.7,now it is Portman +10.7 (shift = Portman +10). Pollster.com had it at Portman at +1.0 in August, now it is Portman +9.4. More telling is that Portman is at or above 50 in three of the last 5 polls. Ohioans are making up their minds and they are choosing Portman.

In analysis four, I wrote:

I have warned all along that OHIO is the place to watch, and lo and behold, it is so. Portman is financially secure to fight a major battle to retain this seat for the GOP, but now that Fisher has won the primary, he is a formidable opponent and a very good speaker. Surely the democratic party would love the coup of taking this seat, especially since Voinovich was one of the last moderate GOP voices left in the Senate. And the fact that Portman is not simply shutting Fisher away tells us that the GOP wave is not evenly spread around the country.

In analysis 5, I wrote the following:

“And indeed, it is so. The race is just as tight today as it was four months ago. Ohio voters, in spite of bad news for Obama with the oil spill and a bad economy, are really split on this republican seat. I backs my these that Ohio is trending more and more blue with each cycle and also that the GOP wave is not evenly spread within the Union. Were this a massive GOP wave, then Portman would be swamping Fisher right now, and he is not.“

In analysis 6, I wrote:

„And now we have August, and still nothing has changed in Ohio. But Portman has more money to spend than Fischer. I now suspect that Obama, Biden (again) and BOTH Clintons will go to bat for Fischer in Ohio. Just as the GOP is hot to take Obama's former senate seat in IL, the DEMS are just as hot to flip this seat in OHIO and have two democratic senators from the quintessential battleground state in the Union. We now have statistical proof after 5 months time that the GOP wave is not consistent within the Union. We also see quite clearly that OHIO and MISSOURI are ideologically moving away from each other.“

Well, change has come. Sticking with my logic and statistics and sense of fairness to all sides, I pinned Ohio to measuring the GOP wave and I stick with my word. Ohio is now indicating a sizeable GOP wave in November. But voters in OHIO sure did take their time making up their minds. OHIO will be a GOP retention in this cycle.

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NORTH CAROLINA is also providing evidence that the wave will be big enough to break the so-called NC curse, where the senatorial seat has flipped reliably every cycles. Here the current stats: RCP has it at Burr +13, whereas Pollster.com has it at Burr +10.9. And this with a republican incumbent with some of the worst approvals numbers this year. NC will be a solid GOP hold.

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In PENNSYLVANIA, we now see measurable movement for Toomey. RCP which had Toomey at +2.0 in August, has him at +9 now. (shift= Toomey +7.0). Pollster.com had Toomey at +3.8 in August, now it is Toomey +7.7 (shift = Toomey +3.9). The GOP is pulling into a measurable lead in the Keystone state, but this lead is not as commanding as in Ohio. Further, where Portman is loaded with money in Ohio and Fischer is not, in PA the two candidates both have impressive warchests. This race remains lean GOP and could still prove to be a major surprise on election night.

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In MISSOURI, the only polling data over the last five months had been dismally empty. But in July, two separate pollsters found Blunt with between +5 and +6 points. RCP showed Blunt at +5.3 in August, he is now at +6. Pollster.com showed Blunt with +5.4 in August, now he is at +7.2 (shift = +1.8). In both cases, Blunt is still outside the MOE and also outside the battleground zone. Relatively fewer undecideds. Lean GOP.


In Prediction number 5, I wrote:

“The name recognition and the dynastic quality of both candidates will make this race fascinating. As happened in the GE in 2008, it would not surprise me to see MO tend more red while OH tends more blue. Signs of this were already apparent in 2008. Expect a plethora of MO polls once the season really gets underway.“

In prediction number 6, I wrote:

„..still counts....“

Guess what? Still counts :)

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In WISCONSIN ,according to RCP, the battleground statistics has moved from Feingold +1.8 in August to Johnson +1.0 in September, which is still. well within battleground territory.

BIG BIG BIG caveat: the only pollster to poll this state in 60 days was Rasmussen. Yes, the last poll showed it suddenly with Johnson at +7, but wait until Badger (which was VERY accurate in 2008 btw) and Magellan and PPP put in their two cents worth.

Pollster.com has moved it from Feingold +0.3 to Johnson +6.1. Now, you may ask why the incredible disparity here: in the case of Pollster.com, they take the average of the last polls, even if they all come from the same pollster. In the case of RCP, they take an average of the last polls, but only the most recent from each pollster.

In prediction number 6, I wrote:

„An outspoken progressive and powerful member of the Senate, Feingold must be a delicious target for the GOP. All pollsters other than Rasmussen show Feingold holding a narrow lead. Just as KY is a very red leaning state, WI has become a very blue leaning state. If the demographics play out as they probably will, then Feingold will be narrowly re-elected, but for now this is the second closest race of the season, next to Ohio.“

I am no longer so sure about this. Indeed, an a major wave, WI could become a GOP pickup. But until the statistical gene pool is more healthy than this, there is no real way to know. We do know that Rasmussen has played too prominent a role in all of this.

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In COLORADO, RCP had the race as an absolute tie between Benett and Buck in August (shortly before the primary upset over Norton). Now, RCP shows the race for Buck at +1.8, still very well within the battleground zone. Pollster.com had it at Buck +3.1 in August, now it shows the race at Buck +3.7

In prediction number 6, I wrote:

„Until the primary is over with, all bets are off, but I give the GOP the better chances here.“

Interestingly enough, this state is not yet showing the GOP wave as OHIO is. The very wild and wooly gubernatorial race in CO may be playing a role here, plus let us not forget the hispanic component in this state, a factor that is insignificant in OH.

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In NEVADA, the race is stabilizing in Harry Reid's favor, a ray of strong hope for the democrats. Harry Reid's agressive and hard-hitting campaign against Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle is working. And Reid has picked up a number of critical endorsements, including endorsements from GOPers, even in this contentious cycle.

In Prediction number 5, I wrote:

„But knowing the demographics of this state and seeing the ammunition that the GOP has handed the democrats, I predict that this state will be a democratic retention in the fall.“


In prediction number 6, I wrote:

“Apparently, my prediction is going to come true.“

YUP.

Here the current stats: RCP had Reid at Reid +2.2, he is now at +0.8 (shift = Reid -1.4). Pollster.com had Reid at +2 in August, now he is at +1.9 (shift = Reid -0.1). Earlier, both candidates were in the low 40s and there were generally still too many undecideds. That is now changing: NV is deciding. Rasmussen has had Reid between 48 and 50 the last two polls.

Yes, those are battleground statistics, but I am sure Harry Reid will eke out a narrow, but resilient win. I bet he will win by more than 3% on election night.

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In ILLINOIS, RCP had Kirk at +1.8 in August, it is now Kirk +1.3 (shift = Kirk -0.5).

IN prediction number 6, I wrote the following about RCP vis-a-vis IL:

“ This however, is extremely misleading and intellectually dishonest, for RCP is still including polling from APRIL showing Kirk ahead while not including a much more recent PPP from JULY showing Giannoulias ahead.“

Since then, RCP has taken out the April polls.


Meanwhile, Pollster.com hadwith Giannoulias at +1.3 in August, it is now Kirk +0.4 (shift = Kirk +1.7).


FACIT: ILL looks as battlegroundy as it can get, but at the end of the day, the democratic machinery in IL will retain this seat for the dems. Of this I am sure, just as sure as I am that Christine O'Donell will get trounced in DE.

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In WASHINGTON, incumbent Patty Murray is pulling away from Dino Rossi. RCP has it at Murray +4, whereas Pollster.com has it at Murray +5.5. In the last three polls, Murray comes at or over 50%. This is to be expected in one of the most left leaning states in the Union. Which is why, regardless of numbers now or in 4 weeks, CA will also retain Barbara Boxer as senator.
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Finally, there has been some crazy speculation out there about WV. I have never in my life seen an incumbent with 70%+ approval ratings lose an election. And though Manchin is not the incumbent senator from WV, he is the incumbent Governor. He will win this special election.




My current prediction sees 3 GOP pick-ups as all but guaranteed (in random order):

NORTH DAKOTA
ARKANSAS
INDIANA

It also sees 3 statistical TOSSUPS (in random order):


ALASKA (open, 3-way, was R)
COLORADO (Bennet, D Incumbent)
WISCONSIN (Feingold, D Incumbent)


In the tossup category, the Democratic party has more territory to protect than the GOP. Nonetheless, even if the GOP were to win ALL of the tossups, it would mean 6 pick-ups for the republicans. I do not see the GOP getting more than 6-8 pick-ups even under the very best of circumstances, and to this date, all GOP statisticians of any credibility are saying the same thing. Talk about Blumenthal in CT has faded into nothingness and Boxer is still demonstrably ahead in CA. Murray is moving into relatively safe territory in WA. And DE just destroyed the GOP's chances to take the Senate.

The one real democratic pick-up possibility at this time has changed from OHIO to ALASKA.


Here are the 37 races, by category as I see them.

FIREWALL GOP:

IDAHO (Crapo)
UTAH (Bennett)
ALABAMA (Shelby)
NORTH DAKOTA (Hoeven)* – GOP Pick-up
SOUTH DAKOTA (Thune)
SOUTH CAROLINA (Demint)
OKLAHOMA (Coburn)
KANSAS (Moran or Tihart)*
IOWA (Grassley)
GEORGIA (Isakson)

FIREWALL DEM:

VERMONT (Leahy)
MARYLAND (Mikulski)
CONNECTICUT (Blumenthal)
NEW YORK (Schumer)
HAWAII (Inoyue)
OREGON (Wyden)
NEW YORK special (Gillibrand)
WEST VIRGINIA special (Manchin)

LIKELY GOP:

ARKANSAS (Boozman) – GOP pick-up.
ARIZONA (McCain)
LOUISIANA (Vitter)
INDIANA (Coats)
NORTH CAROLINA (Burr)
OHIO (Portman)

LIKELY DEM (2):

CALIFORNIA (Boxer) – this liberal bastion is another way of measuring the GOP wave. CA should, under normal circumstances, be a Firewall DEM state, also for mid-terms. If the race gets closer, then the GOP wave is growing. If Boxer runs away with it, then we can say that the GOP wave has peaked. Notice that this race has had no effect on Wyden in neighboring OR.

My take: as blue as this state is, especially after the immigration fiasco in AZ, this state will state in the Democratic column. For this reason, I have not put CA in the tossups. That would be very, very unlikely.

LEAN GOP (3):

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Ayotte)
PENNSYLVANIA (Toomey) -GOP pick-up

LEAN DEM (1):


Tossups/battlegrounds already listed above.
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FACIT: The GOP will definitely pick-up seats in the Senate. It is entirely possible that the Democratic Party picks-up no seats at all. The GOP has a longer list of „FIREWALL“ seats for 2010 than the Democrats. Of the Democratic „FIREWALL“ seats, three are held by incumbents who are getting old (Mikulski, Leahy, Inohue).

Things have changed a lot in the last 35 days. Now it is a matter of estimating when the GOP wave will crest, or if it crests at all.


I expect 2010 to be the nastiest, most expensive, most polarized mid-term cycle in the history of our Union.
And the results of it will probably lead to a clusterf**k for 2 years.

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Here are some good sites to watch the rankings:

The New York Times Senate Rankings

The Cook Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Electoral Vote.com

2010 Senate Midterms WIKI.

2010 Midterm Elections – Senate Prediction No. 6 (Bonncaruso)

Please read the ENTIRE analysis before commenting. Notice that in this analysis there is little mention of current issues, excepting very contentious states, where those issues are now having a direct effect on polling in those states, especially IL, NV and KY. This analysis is 90% statistics; the other 10% is gut feeling that I allow myself.. In this analysis, I have written a great deal and much is hyperlinked, but I think it will be worth it for you to read it all.

History has shown us that in the vast majority of mid-terms, the party in power has suffered losses. In the last 18 years, we have started to call this a „wave“ for the minority party set to make gains in one or both houses of congress. I did a thorough posting on this on the thread to my first prediction. I also described the wave and its similarities to 1994 and 1982 in the analysis to my third prediction.

I did a great deal of writing over the „Tea Party“ and its effect on election 2010 in the last five analyses. You can read that information there.

Some like to put a number on determining whether a wave is a wave or not. This is probably useless. Statistically, on the average, around 27 seats in the house usually switch hands and 7 seats in the Senate, but the meaning of this depends on the size of the majority party to begin with. I would summize that any wave that results in a switch in one or both houses can be defined as a successful wave.

THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – a sideline comment

WARNING: be very, very careful about trying to discern a wave in the House of Representatives. This thing is much more unpredictable than either side wishes to admit. Why? Because out of 435 house seats up for grabs, there is an absolute dearth of polling for the possibly 70 seats in play and in not one case is there an effective „gene pool“ of polling for any one house race and therefore no way to come up with a reliable statistical analysis. Basta. We do know however that based on the president's polling numbers and the generic ballot that a direction can be assumed, and that direction is in this year toward the GOP. We also know that considerably more democratic seats are competitive and up for grabs than GOP seats, but we also know that in every cycle that a certain number of endangered incumbents have survived. In 2006 and 2008 as the democratic party picked up seats in the house, its generic numbers were considerably above the GOP. Now the generic numbers are all over the board, depending on the pollster, but even a dead-on polling indicates GOP strength. However, the Tea Party factor in individual House Races simply cannot be correctly measured as the „Tea Party“ phenomenon will set it's first statistics in November. Very possibly the Tea Party will help in some races and hurt in others, depending on region.

Primary Schedule to the End

As of today, the majority of states (32) have had primaries and/or runoffs and of the primaries to come only two states have statistically interesting races as the balance of power in the Senate could maybe depend on one state or the other: CO and WI. Here is the primary schedule for the remaining states:

AUGUST
TN (08/05), CO, CT, MN (08/10) / WA, WY (08/17) / AK, AZ, FL, VT (08/24) / LA CD-01 (08/28)

SEPTEMBER
Guam (09/04) / Virgin Islands (09/11) / DE, DC, MD, MA, NH, NY, RI, WI (09/14) / HI (09/18)

OCTOBER
LA (State Primary and CD-02 runoff if necessary)

In TX, IL, OH, IN, OR, AR, PA (R), CA and NV (D), we saw establishment candidates win. Notice that these are mostly the biggest states thus far.

In PA and UT, both incumbents (Specter, Bennett) were toppled. In KY and NV, two upstart candidates with very strong tea-party ties have been nominated: Rand Paul in KY and Sharron Angle in NV, both republicans with libertarian leanings. And in KY, the establishment democratic candidate, Mongiardo, was also toppled. In AR, the incumbent, Blanche Lincoln, prevailed in the runoff election. In ID-01, a hispanic republican candidate, Raul Labrador, beat Tea Party candidate Vaughn Ward, who had alse been endorsed by Sarah Palin. So, the theory that this is a purely anti-incumbent cycle is statistically incorrect.

The strongest development since Prediction No. 5 has been the death or Robert Byrd and therefore the addition of WV into the Senate fray. I have WV as a strong DEM hold.

It is now less than 100 days to the mid-term elections and the hot and most likely discordant month of town hall meetings ala 2009 is about to happen. Many things can change and we have seen stranger things happen in politics in the past. That being said, old patterns have solidified and new patterns are now beginning to emerge - some of them very strongly.

CHANGES FROM PREDICTION NUMBER 5:

NEVADA – moves from tossup/battleground to lean democratic.

PENNSYLVANIA – moves from tossup/battleground to lean GOP. This state is likely to flip a number of times yet.
KENTUCKY - moves from lean GOP back to tossup/battleground.
WISCONSIN - moves from lean DEM to tossup/battleground.

HOLDS FROM PREDICTION NUMBER 5:

ILLINOIS – remains lean DEM
FLORIDA – remains lean IND
OHIO - remains tossup/battleground.
COLORADO - remains tossup/battleground.

States that have not changed yet, but may in September 2010 (currently, NO CHANGE):

WASHINGTON – lean DEM, may or may not move to tossup/battleground

NORTH CAROLINA – lean GOP, may or may not move to tossup/battleground


So, let's get started:

In NEVADA, the dynamics of this race have continued to change. Harry Reid is running an agressive and hard-hitting campaign against Tea Party candidate Sharron Angle, who has made a number of critical missteps and the polling is confirming this. To note: Reid has not thrown any mud, but he has effectively used her own words against her. Let this be a message to candidates running in the age of internet, digicams, 24 hour news coverage and bloggage without end.

In Prediction number 5, I wrote:

„But knowing the demographics of this state and seeing the ammunition that the GOP has handed the democrats, I predict that this state will be a democratic retention in the fall.“

Apparently, my prediction is going to come true.

Here the current stats. The polling averages, which were divergent depending on poll cruncher, are all moving in the same direction . On the right, RCP has gone from Angle with +2.7 to Reid +2.2 (shift = Reid +4.9), whereas Pollster.com has moved Reid from +1 to +2 (shift = Reid +1). Earlier, both candidates were in the low 40s and there are generally still too many undecideds, but both PPP, Rasmussen and IPSOS/Reuters have Harry Reid in the upper 40s. He has made a demonstable comeback. The deciding factor in moving this race to lean DEM was the Rasmussen poll which also shows Reid in the lead. Angle has gone from an 11 point lead in Rasmussen to a 2 point deficit in 6 weeks time, a 13 point swing, which is statistically way out of the battleground zone. If even Rasmussen cannot hold Reid down, then you know he is winning. Plus, Reid has scored a number of unexpected endorsements and Angle is continuing to run away from the press. In prediction number 5, I wrote extensively about the damaging baggage that Angle has brought with her into the race. 4 months ago, everyone thought that Harry Reid was dead in the water. Now it truly does look as if he is going to survive. So, even though the composite margin for Reid is narrow, I am now convinced he is going to win, and that in the state with the highest unemployment in the Union.

Now, how much do you want to bet that Rasmussen will put out another NV poll within this week? :) :)

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In PENNSYLVANIA, we continue to see minimal movement since the primary win of Joe Sestak over Specter. RCP which had Toomey +1.7, now has him at +2.0 (shift= Toomey +0.3), whereas Pollster.com has moved from Toomey +4.1 to Toomey +3.8 (shift = Toomey -0.4), As was the case in June, there have only been two pollsters in July, both candidates are UNDER 40, there are just too many undecideds, etc... The demographics and VR statistics in this state tell me that is will be a bitter battleground, but Sestak has not yet taken the lead. The slim margin for Toomey that has been maintained is the reason why I am moving this state to lean GOP, but this can change again a number of times before the mid-terms (both Quinnipiac and PPP show ties, if they do it again, then this state moves back to the tossups). Expect Sestak to surge from behind (he has the money to do it) as he did with Specter.

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In MISSOURI, the only polling data over the last five months had been dismally empty. But in July, two separate pollsters found Blunt with between +5 and +6 points. RCP shows Blunt at +5.3 (they still have the PPP poll from March 2010 in the standings, weird....) and Pollster.com shows Blunt with +5.4. In both cases, Blunt is outside the MOE and also outside the battleground zone. Relatively fewer undecideds. Lean GOP.


In Prediction number 5, I wrote:

“The name recognition and the dynastic quality of both candidates will make this race fascinating. As happened in the GE in 2008, it would not surprise me to see MO tend more red while OH tends more blue. Signs of this were already apparent in 2008. Expect a plethora of MO polls once the season really gets underway.“

...still counts....

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In KENTUCKY, according to RCP, it has moved Paul from +5.7 to +3.6 ( shift = Paul -2.1). Pollster.com has moved Paul from +6.3 to +3.7 (Paul -2.6), but neither include a Conway internal showing him winning 48-46. True, most internals are not calculated (with the internal it would be Paul +2.6), but such a high number for Conway tells me, in tandem with all major pollsters, that Paul is continuing to lose ground. Both averages are practically identical and are once again within the 5 point battleground status. I wrote that Paul's nomination could very well throw this state into the battlegrounds, and indeed this is happening, for the second time in three month..

In prediction number 5, I wrote:

„Paul had a very bad start, especially with the media, which is now scrutinizing his libertarian views. Conway will not go down without a fight. He is smart, dashing, speaks well and can hit hard. But at the end of the day, this state is trending more and more red. Paul has the demographic edge here, and it will probably play out so in the election. What may tip the balance in this election would be the entrance of former President Bill Clinton, who was VERY well liked in this state. Of the three extremely weak candidates that the GOP has put up (Paul, Kirk, Angle), Paul has the best chances, I think.“

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This is the first time that I include WISCONSIN to the toss-up/battlegrounds. The very fact that the GOP is surging here while losing ground elsewhere is proof positive that the GOP wave is not consistent throughout the Union.
According to RCP, in a race against Johnson, it is Feingold +1.8, which is well within battleground territory. Pollster.com has it even narrower, showing Feingold with +0.3. An outspoken progressive and powerful member of the Senate, Feingold must be a delicious target for the GOP. All pollsters other than Rasmussen show Feingold holding a narrow lead. Just as KY is a very red leaning state, WI has become a very blue leaning state. If the demographics play out as they probably will, then Feingold will be narrowly re-elected, but for now this is the second closest race of the season, next to Ohio.

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In ILLINOIS, RCP had Kirk with a +3.3 point lead in June, it is now showing Kirk +1.8. This however, is extremely misleading and intellectually dishonest, for RCP is still including polling from APRIL showing Kirk ahead while not including a much more recent PPP from JULY showing Giannoulias ahead. Meanwhile, Pollster.com has it with Giannoulias at +1.3 – a 3.3 point difference between poll crunchers. The race is still close and both are still in the low 40s, but even RAS has Giannoulias ahead.

In prediction 5, I wrote:

„Interestingly enough, Rasmussen has decided to not poll in IL immediately following the revelations, which really took foot on June 4 and hit the press on June 5. It is amazing how Rasmussen can be motivated to do quick polls when it thinks this will hurt the democrats, but is then suddenly silent when a republican gets into trouble. And Kirk is now in a world of trouble. Giannoulis is no angel and is not well liked, but with the republican vote split between Kirk and Niecestro, Giannoulis' chances of racing through the middle and winning just went up exponentially.“

And so it is. In July, suddenly, RAS polled IL twice. The result: Giannoulias' lead increased from +1 to +2.

In prediction 5, I wrote:

„It would not surprise me to see President Obama go to bat for Giannoulias during the campaign and his star power could make the difference here. At the end of the day, the advantage is for the Democratic party here.“

And indeed, it is so.

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In FLORIDA, according to RCP, Crist has increased his average +3.2 over Rubio in June to +5.6 (shift = +2.4). Pollster.com also shows an improvement in Crist's lead, from +1 in June to +5.3 (shift = +4.3) in July. Crist has lead in 12 of the last 17 polls, since April 2010, was tied in one, and not surprisingly, the only poll that finds a Rubio lead is, you guessed it: Rasmussen.

In prediction number 3, I wrote: „If Crist changes parties (D) or runs as an Independent, then this race will change completely.“ According to poll internals, Crist is drawing a large number of Democrats are lukewarm on Meek. Rubio has suddenly gained unwanted press over that fact that one of his houses is being foreclosed on. Whatever your feelings about Crist are, never underestimate the power of the incumbency. It looks like Crist will pull this one out and will most likely caucus with the Democrats. This means that the GOP loses a seat.

Note: with the possibility that Greene will beat Meek for the DEM nomination, here are the stats in a Crist / Rubio / Greene matchup:

RCP: Crist +5.3
Pollster.com: Crist +4.6

So, at least for now, Greene actually helps Crist (I) out. Crist ismore than likely to caucus with the Democrats should he win, which means that the GOP loses a seat in FL.

-------------------------------------

In OHIO, RCP showed an average for Portman of +0.7 in May. In June, it was Fisher +1.7. In July, it is Portman with +0.7 again, a real indicator of THE tossup state for the Senate in 2010. Pollster.com had it at Fischer +0.8 in June and now shows Portman at +1.0. Fisher has narrowly lead in 8 of the last 13 polls, all the way from March. Portman has led in 4, all from Rasmussen and one from PPP. Interestingly enough, PPP shows the largest turnaround from Portman +5 End of March to Fischer +2 end of June. In all cases except the latest RAS, the leading candidate is still in the low 40s, there are too many undecided.

In analysis four, I wrote:

I have warned all along that OHIO is the place to watch, and lo and behold, it is so. Portman is financially secure to fight a major battle to retain this seat for the GOP, but now that Fisher has won the primary, he is a formidable opponent and a very good speaker. Surely the democratic party would love the coup of taking this seat, especially since Voinovich was one of the last moderate GOP voices left in the Senate. And the fact that Portman is not simply shutting Fisher away tells us that the GOP wave is not evenly spread around the country.

In analysis 5, I wrote the following:

“And indeed, it is so. The race is just as tight today as it was four months ago. Ohio voters, in spite of bad news for Obama with the oil spill and a bad economy, are really split on this republican seat. I backs my these that Ohio is trending more and more blue with each cycle and also that the GOP wave is not evenly spread within the Union. Were this a massive GOP wave, then Portman would be swamping Fisher right now, and he is not.“

And now we have August, and still nothing has changed in Ohio. But Portman has more money to spend than Fischer. I now suspect that Obama, Biden (again) and BOTH Clintons will go to bat for Fischer in Ohio. Just as the GOP is hot to take Obama's former senate seat in IL, the DEMS are just as hot to flip this seat in OHIO and have two democratic senators from the quintessential battleground state in the Union. We now have statistical proof after 5 months time that the GOP wave is not consistent within the Union. We also see quite clearly that OHIO and MISSOURI are ideologically moving away from each other.

---------------------------------------------


In COLORADO, with the primary first on August 10, it is really hard to make a clear call in this rapidly changing state. RCP had the race for Norton at +2 against Bennet in May, it had Norton at +0.7 in June and now it shows Norton at +1.0; in matchups agains GOP candidate Buck, it was Bennet +0.7 in May, Bennet +1 in June and now it is an absolute tie. Pollster.com had it at Norton +3.3 against Bennet in June and now shows a whalloping Norton +8.1 and Buck was at +4.1 against Bennet, now at +6.5. So, even the polling averages are divergent. In any case, it is too early too tell.

And now there is indeed the possibility that Romanoff will win the DEM nomination, which will mix the cards anew. If Clinton is the one to help Romanoff get the nomination, then he may also help him to win the race.

Until the primary is over with, all bets are off, but I give the GOP the better chances here.

------------------------------------------------

My current prediction sees 4 GOP pick-ups as all but guaranteed (in random order):

NORTH DAKOTA
ARKANSAS
DELAWARE
INDIANA

It also sees 3 statistical TOSSUPS (in random order):


OHIO (open, was R)
COLORADO (Bennet, D Incumbent)
WISCONSIN (Feingold, D Incumbent)

It also sees 1 lean to moderate IND win, ala Lieberman in CT:

FLORIDA (open, was R) - Crist

In the tossup category, the Democratic party has more territory to protect than the GOP. Nonetheless, even if the GOP were to win ALL of the tossups, it would mean 6 pick-ups for the republicans. I do not see the GOP getting more than 6-8 pick-ups even under the very best of circumstances, and to this date, all GOP statisticians of any credibility are saying the same thing. Talk about Blumenthal in CT has faded into nothingness and Boxer is still demonstrably ahead in CA,

The one real democratic pick-up possibility at this time is in OHIO. Also, if Crist wins in FLORIDA, then the GOP loses a seat. So, even if the GOP picks up the 4 seemingly guaranteed pick-ups plus PA and CO, but loses OH and FL, then that makes a net gain of +4 for the GOP. So, for the second time in two months time, we see the statistical possibility that the GOP wave in the Senate may actually be BELOW the average for a mid-term.

Here are the 37 races, by category as I see them.

FIREWALL GOP:

ALASKA (Murkowski)
IDAHO (Crapo)
UTAH (Bennett)
ALABAMA (Shelby)
NORTH DAKOTA (Hoeven)* – GOP Pick-up
SOUTH DAKOTA (Thune)
SOUTH CAROLINA (Demint)
OKLAHOMA (Coburn)
KANSAS (Moran or Tihart)*
IOWA (Grassley)
GEORGIA (Isakson)
ARIZONA (McCain or Hayworth)
LOUISIANA (Vitter) – which I consider to be the heighth of hypocrisy, considering Vitter's sex scandal.


FIREWALL DEM:

VERMONT (Leahy)
MARYLAND (Mikulski)
CONNECTICUT (Blumenthal)
NEW YORK (Schumer)
HAWAII (Inoyue)
OREGON (Wyden)
NEW YORK special (Gillibrand)
WEST VIRGINIA special (Manchin)

LIKELY GOP:

ARKANSAS (Boozman) – Lincoln is cooked here. The GOP will pick up this seat.

DELAWARE (Castle). This is a large disappointment for the Democratic party. However, Coons may be building for his future. I expect to hear more about him as time goes on. The GOP will pick up this seat.

INDIANA (Coats)

LIKELY DEM (2):

CALIFORNIA (Boxer) – this liberal bastion is another way of measuring the GOP wave. CA should, under normal circumstances, be a Firewall DEM state, also for mid-terms. If the race gets closer, then the GOP wave is growing. If Boxer runs away with it, then we can say that the GOP wave has peaked. Notice that this race has had no effect on Wyden in neighboring OR.

My take: as blue as this state is, especially after the immigration fiasco in AZ, this state will state in the Democratic column. For this reason, I have not put CA in the tossups. That would be very, very unlikely.

LEAN GOP (3):

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Ayotte) – but with scandal brewing, this race may change. STAY TUNED.

NORTH CAROLINA (Burr) – this state may indeed move into the battlegrounds.

LEAN DEM (1):

WASHINTON (Murray, D Incumbent). Yes, polling shows it close, but in the „Soviet of Seattle“ it is hard to imagine a GOP upset, especially with Rossi, who already lost once. Plus, in polling, Murray is still hanging at 49.

Tossups/battlegrounds already listed above.
--------------------------------------------------------------

In my first analysis, I predicted four GOP pick-ups. Now I am back to 4 pick-ups for the third prediction total, but the evidence is more compelling.

FACIT: The GOP will definitely pick-up seats in the Senate. It is entirely possible that the Democratic Party picks-up no seats at all. The GOP has a longer list of „FIREWALL“ seats for 2010 than the Democrats. Of the Democratic „FIREWALL“ seats, three are held by incumbents who are getting old (Mikulski, Leahy, Inohue).

That being said, the GOP is showing surprising weakness in OH, MO, NV, PA, CO and FL. It caught a real break in DE and in IN, but it has a quandary on it's hands in FL. How strange it could be to have picked Tampa as the sight of the 2012 GOP national convention, only to have a former GOPer as IND senator in the state, one who will most likely caucus with the democrats.

And the fact that the GOP has still not gained massive traction with the voters inspite of a bad economy, a disastrous oil spill and contentious debates over immigration and health care tells me that the public is no more inclined to suddenly jump over to the GOP as it is to suddenly be excited for the democratic party. Or better put, the one consolation for the democratic party getting terrible approval numbers is that the GOP's numbers are even worse.


I expect 2010 to be the nastiest, most expensive, most polarized mid-term cycle in the history of our Union.

Here are some good sites to watch the rankings:

The New York Times Senate Rankings

The Cook Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Electoral Vote.com

2010 Senate Midterms WIKI.

2010 Midterm Elections – Senate Prediction No. 5 (Bonncaruso)

Please read the ENTIRE analysis before commenting. Notice that in this analysis there is little mention of current issues, aexcepting very contentious states, for those issues are now having a direct effect on polling in those states, especially IL, NV and KY. This analysis is 90% statistics; the other 10% is gut feeling that I allow myself.. In this analysis, I have written a great deal and much is hyperlinked, but I think it will be worth it for you to read it all.

History has shown us that in the vast majority of mid-terms, the party in power has suffered losses. In the last 18 years, we have started to call this a „wave“ for the minority party set to make gains in one or both houses of congress. I did a thorough posting on this on the thread to my first prediction. I also described the wave and its similarities to 1994 and 1982 in the analysis to my third prediction.

And indeed, we are seeing a similarity to 1994 in that the so-called „Tea Party“ has rolled out a „Contract from America“, with the intent that the GOP incorporate it into its own platform. Meanwhile, the GOP is planning it's own version of the „Contract with America“, perhaps under a different name, and is rolling it out on a large, impressive website allowing user/blogger input, called AmericaSpeakingOut.com. In analysis number four I wrote:

„I suspect that the Tea Party contract and the GOP contract will have many similarities to each other.“

And lo and behold, according to the Tea Party, this is already happening.

At the same time, the existence of the „Tea Party“ can also be used to reason that 2010 is not so like 1994, for in 1994, there was no third entity trying to push the process as it wishes to see it done. And statistics are now telling us that the Tea Party is actually amazingly similar :) :) to the right-wing of the GOP.

Now, some like to put a number on determining whether a wave is a wave or not. This is probably useless. Statistically, on the average, around 27 seats in the house usually switch hands and 7 seats in the Senate, but the meaning of this depends on the size of the majority party to begin with. I would summize that any wave that results in a switch in one or both houses can be defined as a successful wave.

As of today, twenty-four (24) states have had primaries and some have also had runoffs: IL , TX, OH, IN, NC, NE, WV, OR, PA, KY, AR, ID, AL, MS, CA, IA, ME, MT, NV, NJ, ND, SC, SD and VA, .

In TX, IL, OH, IN, OR, AR, PA (R), CA and NV (D), we saw establishment candidates win. Notice that these are mostly the biggest states thus far.

In PA and UT, both incumbents (Specter, Bennett) were toppled. In KY and NV, two upstart candidates with very strong tea-party ties have been nominated: Rand Paul in KY and Sharron Angle in NV, both republicans with libertarian leanings. And in KY, the establishment democratic candidate, Mongiardo, was also toppled. In AR, the incumbent, Blanche Lincoln, prevailed in the runoff election. In ID-01, a hispanic republican candidate, Raul Labrador, beat Tea Party candidate Vaughn Ward, who had alse been endorsed by Sarah Palin. So, the theory that this is a purely anti-incumbent cycle is statistically incorrect.

Before the prediction, please remember that it is still early. Many things can change and we have seen stranger things happen in politics in the past. That being said, patterns are now beginning to emerge and some of them are very strong.

CHANGES FROM PREDICTION NUMBER 4:

NEVADA – moves from solid GOP pick-up to tossup/battleground, tendency democratic
PENNSYLVANIA – moves from lean GOP to battleground, tendency democratic

ILLINOIS – moves from tossup/battleground to lean DEM
FLORIDA – moves from tossup/battleground to lean IND
KENTUCKY - moves from tossup/battleground to lean GOP.

So, let's get started with the states I have colored green (tossups, no clear winner) plus the change states:

In NEVADA, the dynamics of this race have changed greatly. Sue Lowdon, once front-runner for the GOP nomination, lost due to a number of mis-steps, the most obvious of which was „chicken-gate“. Raging up from erstwhile third place, hard-to-define Sharron Angle took the nomination and immediately, her problems began. There is no doubt that Angle is one of the finest gifts that the GOP just gave to the democrats. Written off as long dead, Harry Reid now has a real chance of retaining his seat.

First, the current stats. Here the polling averages diverge, depending on the poll cruncher. On the right, RCP has Angle with a +2.7, whereas Pollster.com has Reid at +1. In all instances, both candidates are in the low 40s and there are too many undecideds, but Harry Reid has made a demonstable comeback and the race may become a three, possibly four-way race with enough spoiler effect to allow Reid a decent win.

Angle is bringing very damaging baggage into the race:

She was a registered Democrat at the heighth of the Reagan revolution. She switched parties before GE 2004.

Then, in the 1990's, she belonged to a fringe “Independent American Party“ with extreme views, for six years. The party is theocratic and has believed, among other things, that HIV is spread through watery. They also believe that the NAU (North American Union) is on its way, and the NAFTA superhighway, and....

„During the period that Angle was a member, the party bought a red, white, and blue 16-page advertising insert in several Nevada newspapers to promote an effort to add a clause to the state constitution stating that "objection to homosexuality is a liberty and right of conscience and shall not be considered discrimination relating to civil rights," according to a 1994 article in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The so-called Minority Status and Child Protection Act would have explicitly allowed discrimination against gay people in jobs and housing. The party then picketed a newspaper, the Reno Gazette-Journal, that refused to run the ad.“

So, at least 10 of the last 26 years, she was not a registered republican. That is fact.

She also had a PAC with a virulently anti-gay, anti-atheist, anti-immigration stance. This PAC is called We The People.

She is for making alcohol illegal, and this in Nevada, of all places.

She has given comments about armed revolution (sedition) that are most disturbing. And she has done it more than once. Here is an audio of an interview she did with a conservative radio show. More details about it here. Insurrection or sedition is a crime, by the way.

She wants to eliminate social security and href=http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/06/sharron_angle_suggests_we_shou.html?wprss=plum-line>privatize the department of veterans affairs. You can listen to the entire interview here.

She dabbled in scientology. You can see a video of her in a promotional for scientological rehabilitation techniques for criminals (around the 6:30 mark).

She was against flouridation of water, believed it is a communist plot.

And even after Dick Armey said that GOP candidates should get off the Tea Party radar for a while, Angle will be a keynote speaker for the next Tea Party convention, to be held in Las Vegas.

Her first brush with the local media since the nomination was not good and they reported it. You can see the video here.

"Americanism means the virtues of courage, honor, justice, truth, sincerity, and hardihood—the virtues that made America. The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living and the get-rich-quick theory of life." - President Theodore Roosevelt (R, 1901-1909), in a letter to S. Stanwood Menken, January 10, 1917

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2010 Midterm Elections
Senate Prediction No. 4 (Bonncaruso)

Please read the ENTIRE analysis before commenting. Notice that in this analysis there is little mention of current issues. This is 90% statistics here. The other 10% is gut feeling that I allow myself.

History has shown us that in the vast majority of mid-terms, the party in power has suffered losses. This is usually called a „wave“ for the minority party set to make gains. I did a thorough posting on this on the thead to my first prediction. I also described the wave and its similarities to 1994 and 1982 in the analysis to my third prediction.

And indeed, we are seeing a similarity to 1994 in that the so-called „Tea Party“ is rolling out a „Contract from America“, with the intent that the GOP incorporate it into its own platform. Meanwhile, the GOP is planning it's own version of the „Contract with America“, perhaps under a different name, and is planning to roll it out on a large, impressive website allowing user/blogger input. I suspect that the Tea Party contract and the GOP contract will have many similarities to each other.

At the same time, the existence of the „Tea Party“ can also be used to reason that 2010 is not so like 1994, for in 1994, there was no third entity trying to push the process as it wishes to see it done.

As of today, five (5) states have had primaries: IL , TX, OH, IN and NC. In OH and IN, we saw establishment candidates win. In NC, we will have to wait until the runoff election, but NC looks very much as if it is going to stay in the GOP column. Also, as of today, we have two relative surprise developments: Crist's decision to go it as an independent candidate in FL and Rand Paul's seemingly unbeatable lead over Grayson in KY.

Before the prediction, please remember that it is still very early. Many things can change and we have seen stranger things happen in politics in the past.

CHANGES FROM PREDICTION NUMBER 3:

INDIANA – moves from tossup to solid GOP.
PENNSYLVANIA – moves from tossup to lean GOP.
ILLINOIS – moves from lean DEM back to battleground.
KENTUCKY – moves from solid GOP to battleground.
FLORIDA – moves from solid GOP to battleground.

So, let's get started with the states I have colored green (tossups, no clear winner):

In ILLINOIS, RCP had Giannoulias at an average of +6.0 points above Kirk, now it shows Kirk with a +1.7 point lead. This moves IL back in the tossup zone. Of course, capturing President Obama's former senate seat would be a real coup for the GOP and under normal circumstances, this would be a DEM landslide. Once again, it shows how unpredictable and fickle the american electorate can be. Expect a barrage of IL polling once the season really gets underway. It would not surprise me to see President Obama go to bat for Giannoulias during the campaign and his star power could make the difference here. At the end of the day, the advantage is for the Democratic party here.

In FLORIDA, with the exit of Crist from the Republican party, the math has changed overnight. Currently, according to RCP, it is an average of Crist (I) with +4 over Rubio, but this is all at a very early stage. In prediction number 3, I wrote: „If Crist changes parties (D) or runs as an Independent, then this race will change completely.“ According to poll internals, Crist is drawing a large number of Democrats who either don't know Meek well enough yet or are not really ready to vote for the first black senator in Florida history. We will be hearing lots of arguments for and against Crist, but the immigration quandary posed by the new controversial law in AZ plus the oil spill in the gulf throw this race wide open. Whatever your feelings about Crist are, never underestimate the power of the incumbency. Crist could pull this one out and could very well caucus with the Democrats. Democratic voters who see that Meek may have no chance may hold their noses and vote for Crist, which is what he is hoping will happen.

In OHIO, RCP is showing an average for Portman of +0.7, a real indicator of THE tossup state for the senate in 2010. I have warned all along that OHIO is the place to watch, and lo and behold, it is so. Portman is financially secure to fight a major battle to retain this seat for the GOP, but now that Fisher has won the primary, he is a formidable opponent and a very good speaker. Surely the democratic party would love the coup of taking this seat, especially since Voinovich was one of the last moderate GOP voices left in the Senate. And the fact that Portman is not simply shutting Fisher away tells us that the GOP wave is not evenly spread around the country.

In KENTUCKY, the newest polls, including a PPP poll showing a real shift, indicate to me that KY is well on it's way to being a battleground state. In prediction number 3, I wrote: „this race could fall over into the tossup column very, very fast. It would not surprise me if this happens. The whole Paulite movement is in and of itself interesting to watch.“ Now, down deep in my heart I think this is Paul's to lose and certainly after the KY primary, the polls may open up again for the GOP, but let's not forget, Mongiardo just barely lost to Bunning in 2004, he is a polished campaigner and the majority of voters in KY are registered democrats, so even though the state has been trending red on the national level, this is no guarantee at the state level. Further, Paul was a real surprise here. Grayson was expected to be the anointed candidate and then Paul has just run away with the primary, with real support from the Tea Party. Surely name recognition plays a role here. However, once some of Paul's unorthodox views get more scrutiny, the GOP may end up with buyer's remose. So, call me a little crazy, but I am currently moving KY into the tossups.

In COLORADO, RCP has the race for Norton at +2, but if Buck is the GOP candidate, it's Bennet +0.7. Caveat: the polls are simply spread out from January until today, no one comes over 50, too many undecideds. Simply put, there is not enough recent data to make an informed choice. Until something changes, CO remains a battleground. But I give the GOP the better chances here, unless Bennet really comes out swinging.

In MISSOURI, the only polling data over the last four months, except for one lone PPP poll, has been from Rasmussen. This means that there is no polling gene pool to work with, which is bad. The name recognition and the dynastic quality of both candidates will make this race fascinating. As happened in the GE in 2008, it would not surprise me to see MO tend more red while OH tends more blue. Signs of this were already apparent in 2008. Expect a plethora of MO polls once the season really gets underway.


My current prediction sees 5 GOP pick-ups as all but guaranteed (in random order):

NORTH DAKOTA
ARKANSAS
DELAWARE
NEVADA
INDIANA

And one pick-up less guaranteed:

PENNYSLVANIA

It also sees 6 statistical TOSSUPS (in random order):

ILLINOIS (open, was D)
OHIO (open, was R)
MISSOURI (open, was R)
KENTUCKY (open, was R)
COLORADO (Bennet, D Incumbent)
FLORIDA (open, was R)

In the tossup category, the Democratic party has more territory to protect than the GOP. Nonetheless, even if the GOP were to win ALL of the tossups, it would mean 8 pick-ups for the republicans. I do not see the GOP getting more than 6-8 pick-ups even under the very best of circumstances, and to this date, all GOP statisticians of any credibility are saying the same thing. Plus, there is a possibility of the democratic party picking up OH and Crist in FL caucusing with the Democratic party (for this reason 6-8 GOP pickups)


Here are the 36 races, by category as I see them.

FIREWALL GOP (13):

ALASKA (Murkowski)
IDAHO (Crapo)
UTAH (Bennett)
ALABAMA (Shelby)
NORTH DAKOTA (Hoeven)* – GOP Pick-up
SOUTH DAKOTA (Thune)
SOUTH CAROLINA (Demint)
OKLAHOMA (Coburn)
KANSAS (Moran or Tihart)*
IOWA (Grassley)
GEORGIA (Isakson)
ARIZONA (McCain or Hayworth)
LOUISIANA (Vitter) – which I consider to be the heighth of hypocrisy, considering Vitter's sex scandal.


FIREWALL DEM (8):

VERMONT (Leahy)
MARYLAND (Mikulski)
CONNECTICUT (Blumenthal)
NEW YORK (Schumer)
HAWAII (Inoyue)
OREGON (Wyden)
NEW YORK special (Gillibrand)
WASHINGTON (Murray)

LIKELY GOP (4):

NORTH CAROLINA (Burr) – also a good indicator of how wide the GOP wave will be. Currently, it has grown from Burr +11.3 to Burr +13. Burr's approval numbers are still bad, but the GOP wave is growing here.

ARKANSAS (Boozman) – Lincoln is cooked here. Even if Halter takes the nomination from her, the state is more than likely to go for the GOP. It was the state that held most AGAINST the DEM trend in the GE 2008 and gave McCain an almost 20 point winning margin over Obama. I believe that no amount of Clinton support for Lincoln will help. The GOP will pick up this seat.

DELAWARE (Castle). This is a large disappointment for the Democratic party. However, Coons may be building for his future. I expect to hear more about him as time goes on. The GOP will pick up this seat.

Indiana (Coats): with the exit of democratic icon Evan Bayh, even with this state having gone for a democratic presidential candidate in 2008, the first time since 1964, there is enough republican base in a year of GOP enthusiam to pretty much assure a Coats win here. It will not be a mega-landslide as in some western states, but it will be a solid win.

LIKELY DEM (1):

WISCONSIN – since Thompson is not getting in the race, this state stays reliably blue. The Democratic party got a much needed break here.

LEAN GOP (3):

In PENNSYLVANIA, RCP currently, shows it for Toomey at +6.5. This is a gain over last month. But Specter winning the primary is not guaranteed. Sestak is gaining ground quickly on Specter and once the nominee is set, the dynamics of this race could change very fast. For now, it is lean GOP, but it could move into the battlegrounds almost overnight.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Ayotte) – but with scandal brewing, this race may change. STAY TUNED.

NEVADA (Lowden or Tarkanian) – the GOP is looking to pick-up this seat.

LEAN DEM (1):

CALIFORNIA (Boxer) – this liberal bastion is another way of measuring the GOP wave. CA should, under normal circumstances, be a Firewall DEM state, also for mid-terms. If the race gets closer, then the GOP wave is growing. If Boxer runs away with it, then we can say that the GOP wave has peaked. Notice that this race has had no effect on Wyden in neighboring OR. Polls are showing Boxer with lean but resilient leads. As blue as this state is, especially after the immigration fiasco in AZ, this state will state in the Democratic column. For this reason, I have not put CA in the tossups. That would be very, very unlikely.

--------------------------------------------------------------

In my first analysis, I predicted four GOP pick-ups. Now I am predicting six, but the evidence is more compelling. I also predict that July will be the month to watch to see movement, for as of the end of June, excluding CO and AZ, the primaries in races that are in question will already be over with.

FACIT: The GOP will definitely pick-up seats in the Senate. It is entirely possible that the Democratic Party picks-up no seats at all. The GOP has a longer list of „FIREWALL“ seats for 2010 than the Democrats. Of the Democratic „FIREWALL“ seats, three are held by incumbents who are getting old (Mikulski, Leahy, Inohue).

That being said, the GOP is showing surprising weakness in KY and OH, and now FL. It caught a real break in DE and in IN, but it has a quandary on it's hands in FL. How strange it could be to pick Tampa as the sight of the 2012 GOP national convention, only to have a former GOPer as IND senator in the state. The best rays of sunshine in all of this for the Democrats are probably Blumenthal in CT and Feingold in WI, and to some degree Murray in WA.

The passage of health care has not yet shown a massive change in poll numbers, but this may indeed change, as element of the law take effect and the general public begins to notice the benefits of such.

I expect 2010 to be the nastiest, most expensive, most polarized mid-term cycle in the history of our Union.

Here are some good sites to watch the rankings:

The New York Times Senate Rankings

The Cook Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Electoral Vote.com

2010 Senate Midterms WIKI.

2010 Midterm Elections – Senate Prediction No. 3 (Bonncaruso)

Please read the ENTIRE analysis before commenting. Notice that in this analysis there is almost no mention of current issues. This is 90% statistics here.

History has shown us that in the vast majority of mid-terms, the party in power has suffered losses. I did a thorough posting on this on the thead to my first prediction. Sometimes a mid-term wave for the opposition has led to a shift in control of one or both houses of congress, sometimes not. Regardless of the accuracy of polling or the extremism in punditry (yes, that is a warning shot aimed at partisan hacks), it is truly impossible to gauge the exact extent of a shift in power during a mid-term cycle, and although one may find some similarities to other cycles, no two cycles are really alike. What we do know for certain is that there has never been a mid-term or general election without pick-ups in at least one, usually both, parties.

Many see similarities to 1994: in 1994, President Clinton's HCR efforts failed, the GOP based was rallied, Newt Gingrich proposed a „contract with America“ and the Republicans took control of congress. Just two years later, Bill Clinton gave GOP candidate Bob Dole a „thumpin'“ in the 1996 GE and in 1998, going against history, the Democratic party did not suffer losses in the Senate mid-term elections (3 gains on each side cancelled each other out).

Many see similarities to 1982: in 1982, Ronald Reagan's numbers were even lower than Obama's are now (and many of the pundits wrote the same things about the „great communicator“ that they are now writing about Obama). The Democratic party gained one seat in the Senate in 1982 and 8 more in 1986, but Reagan won re-election in 1984 with a 49 state-sweep akin to Nixon's re-election from 1972; Reagan also set an EV record.

But let us not forget that in both of those cases, the electoral landscape, broken down by region of the nation, was different than it is now. Bill Clinton's election in 1992 was the first cycle of the last 6 to pretty much cement the NE region into the Democratic column, but it was only the start; he picked up five states in the south (AR, LA, KY, TN, GA) and five states in the south again in 1996 (AR, LA; KY, TN, FL, but not GA) and at that time, WV was a very reliably democratic state. In other words, based on the democratic coalition that was formed around Clinton in 1992 and which has mostly held outside of the south over the last six cycles, we can now measure trends for both sides of the spectrum.

In the 1980 and 1984 GE's, the landscape was radically different. Jimmy Carter was the last democratic candidate to sweep the south in 1976 and lost virtually all of it in the Reagan revolution of 1980. Just as 1992 cemented the NE into the democratic column, 1980 and 1984 cemented the south into the republican column, but that was just a beginning.

How does this apply at the congressional level? In some cases, very much, but in cases of states that do lots of ticket splitting, not very much at all. And the republican upset in MA in January proves that surprises can and do happen. I think that it would be good for conservatives, moderates and liberals to remember this point.

As of today, only two states have had primaries: IL and TX. Therefore, we are starting to see empiric data coming in only in these two states. The rest is mere conjecture. Unfortunately, most of it is coming in from one pollster alone: RASMUSSEN, who tends very obviously to the right. Nate Silver at 538 has written about this „house effect“ issue more than once; you can go to his website and inform yourself about it. But it becomes glaringly obvious when only Rasmussen has Obama's polling numbers so far consistently under the other pollsters.

Before the prediction, please remember that it is still very early and only two states are really bringing in data based on candidates that are set in stone for November.

So, let's get started:

In ILLINOIS, RCP has Giannoulias at an average of +6.0 points above Kirk, but the disparity in polling is striking: R2K and PPP (D) show Giannoulias ahead, while Rasmussen shows Kirk ahead. In all cases, neither candidate is above 50. Assuming a house effect by R2K (which we must NOT really assume, R2K's polls in the GE 2008 were very, very accurate), then the two house effects essentially neutralize each other. At this time, rumours of the Democratic Party's demise in ILLINOIS are just that: rumours. A +6.0 average is one point out of the battleground zone, so ILLINOIS is not a toss-up, it is a lean DEM hold.

Oh, and about house effect: the race for Governor in ILLINOIS is taking on similar proportions: now that Brady has been declared the winner in the GOP primary, RASMUSSEN has Brady up by +10 points, but R2K has Quinn up by +15 points. The average would be Quinn +2.5 points. The two polls are absolute mirror images of each other, with one andidate winning over the other 47 to 32.

In TEXAS, there is no race for the senate, but the Governor's race is getting very interesting and I am bringing it up to show that, though we are indeed seeing a GOP wave, it is not consistent through the country and may indeed peak too early. RCP shows Perry with +5.5 points on the average. The polling is more consistent here, but the margin is very small for a bedrock GOP state. Remember, Bush won here 60-40, McCain won here with 55.5%. Perry is not coming over 50 here, either. Don't forget, Perry is the incumbent. He should be polling much stronger than this, especially in the year of a GOP wave. What does this prove? It proves once again that all politics are local. Immigration plays a role here in this state more than practically any other state in the Union. And Bill White's favorability numbers are 18 points over Obama's. Obviously, Obama is not a drag on Bill White.


My current prediction sees 4 GOP pick-ups as all but guaranteed (in random order):

NORTH DAKOTA
ARKANSAS
DELAWARE
NEVADA

It also sees 5 statistical TOSSUPS (in random order):

OHIO (open, was R)
PENNSYLVANIA (Specter, D Incumbent)
MISSOURI (open, was R)
INDIANA (open, was D)
COLORADO (Bennet, D Incumbent)

In the tossup category, the Democratic party has more territory to protect than the GOP. Nonetheless, even if the GOP were to win ALL of the tossups, it would mean 7 pick-ups for the republicans. I do not see the GOP getting more than 8 pick-ups even under the very best of circumstances, and to this date, all GOP statisticians of any credibility are saying the same thing.


Here are the 36 races, by category as I see them.

FIREWALL GOP (13):

ALASKA (Murkowski)
IDAHO (Crapo)
UTAH (Bennett)
ALABAMA (Shelby)
NORTH DAKOTA (Hoeven)* – GOP Pick-up
SOUTH DAKOTA (Thune)
SOUTH CAROLINA (Demint)
OKLAHOMA (Coburn)
KANSAS (Moran or Tihart)*
IOWA (Grassley)
GEORGIA (Isakson)
ARIZONA (McCain or Hayworth)
LOUISIANA (Vitter)


FIREWALL DEM (8):

VERMONT (Leahy)
MARYLAND (Mikulski)
CONNECTICUT (Blumenthal)
NEW YORK (Schumer)
HAWAII (Inoyue)
OREGON (Wyden)
NEW YORK special (Gillibrand)* - could change status only if Pataki enters the race.
WASHINGTON (Murray)

LIKELY GOP (3):

FLORIDA (Rubio, if Crist does not run as an Independent). If Crist changes parties (D) or runs as an Independent, then this race will change completely. Not surprisingly, this race could end up becoming one of the most interesting of the mid-terms and will also tell us some over the „Tea Party“ movement, which has put Rubio in an unbeatable position for the GOP nomination. I am now counting the days before Crist either gives up and goes it as an independent, or changes to the Democratic Party.

NORTH CAROLINA (Burr) – also a good indicator of how wide the GOP wave will be. Currently, it is Burr +11.3. Burr's approval numbers are still very bad. However, Burr has pulled away since the last composite polling. The GOP wave is growing here.

ARKANSAS (Boozman) – Lincoln is cooked here. Even if Halter takes the nomination from her, the state is more than likely to go for the GOP. It was the state that held most AGAINST the DEM trend in the GE 2008 and gave McCain an almost 20 point winning margin over Obama. I believe that no amount of Clinton support for Lincoln will help. The GOP will pick up this seat.

DELAWARE (Castle). This is a large disappointment for the democratic party. However, Coons may be building for his future. I expect to hear more about him as time goes on. The GOP will pick up this seat.

LIKELY DEM (2):

WISCONSIN (Feingold, becomes lean DEM if Thompson becomes the GOP candidate). Wisconsin has gone bluer and bluer, also at the state level. Feingold may look vulnerable now, but he is not. This is a state that will dance with the other girl at the party but go home with the girl it knows already, similar to CT and NJ.

CALIFORNIA (Boxer) – this liberal bastion is another way of measuring the GOP wave. CA should, under normal circumstances, be a Firewall DEM state, also for mid-terms. If the race gets closer, then the GOP wave is growing. If Boxer runs away with it, then we can say that the GOP wave has peaked. Notice that this race has had no effect on Wyden in neighboring OR.

LEAN GOP (3):

KENTUCKY (Paul or Grayson)- however, this race could fall over into the tossup column very, very fast. It would not surprise me if this happens. The whole Paulite movement is in and of itself interesting to watch. Mongiardo is also a formidable candidate and a name we may very well hear in the future. The race is in single digits here, no one is coming over 50.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (Ayotte)

NEVADA (Lowden or Tarkanian) – the GOP is looking to pick-up this seat.

LEAN DEM (1):

ILLINOIS (Giannoulias) – reasons listed above.

TOSSUP STATES:

OHIO. All the numbers are too low, no one is even close to 50. Too many undecideds. Quintessential battleground state, also at the congressional level. Of all the races, this is the democrats' best pick-up chance. Watch this race very closely.

PENNSYLVANIA. Strange dynamic here: former GOP senator switches sides, has a primary challenge and a strong GOP opponent. Nonetheless, though it is an average of Toomey +4.0, Specter was up by +7 in the most recent poll. Nobody is putting anyone away here, keep your forks in your pockets, no one is cooked here yet.

MISSOURI. Lots of musical chairs here. The name „Carnahan“ is beginning to mean a family dynasty in MO, much as the name „Kennedy“ resonates in MA. Robin Carnahan is young, attractive and set records when she won the office of Secretary of State in 2008- in the raw vote, winning percentage and winning margin. But the name „Blunt“ is also a dynastic name in MO: Roy Blunt, currently representative from MO-07, 60 years old, is the GOP candidate and his son, Matt Blunt, was governor of MO from 2005-2009 and was Secretary of State from 2000-2004 and succeeded by Robin Carnahan. So, these two family names both carry considerable weight in this state. When we consider that MO was THE nailbiter race in the GE 2008 (McCain +0.13%), it is no surprise that the race is this close. A recount in this race after election night is entirely possible.

COLORADO. The only pollster to poll this state over the last three months was Rasmussen, which shows Norton ahead. But only one pollster in the stall does not make for healthy polling DNA. Until more evidence comes in, this state is still a tossup. And Bennet has better approval numbers than many of his colleagues. I suspect that soon many pollsters will converge on Colorado. I also expect Obama to go to bat for Bennet in CO.

INDIANA. In what can only be described as a major disappointment for the democratic party, Evan Bayh's decision to not run turns what would have been a rock solid DEM victory into a dogfight. Here we can see once again a huge difference between two pollsters accused of „house effects“ - you can see it on the link provided. RAS has the GOP up by high double digits, R2K has the GOP up by low single digits. In all cases, no one is even close to 50 and Coats is underperforming. Until the IN primary has come and gone and the public there really starts making up it's mind, this state is just as „battlegroundy“ as OHIO and PENNSYLVANIA. BTW, in the GE 2008, RAS had McCain winning in IN. Obama carried the state.

In my first analysis, I predicted four GOP pick-ups. Now I am still predicting 4, but the evidence is more compelling. I also predict that July will be the month to watch to see movement, for as of the end of June, excluding CO and AZ, the primaries in races that are in question will already be over with.

FACIT: The GOP will definitely pick-up seats in the Senate. It is entirely possible that the Democratic Party picks-up no seats at all. The GOP has a longer list of „FIREWALL“ seats for 2010 than the Democrats. Of the Democratic „FIREWALL“ seats, three are held by incumbents who are getting old (Mikulski, Leahy, Inohue).

That being said, the GOP is showing surprising weakness in KY and OH. It caught a real break in DE, perhaps also in IN. The best ray of sunshine in all of this for the Democrats is probably Blumenthal in CT.

Once health care reform has either passed or failed, we will know better where the public is going.

I expect 2010 to be the nastiest, most expensive, most polarized mid-term cycle in the history of our Union.

Here are some good sites to watch the rankings:

The New York Times Senate Rankings

The Cook Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Electoral Vote.com

2010 Senate Midterms WIKI.

The only state where we have any kind of empiric data (and very little at that) is IL, and that state is a mixed bag. In spite of one poll and one poll only, showing a Kirk lead, I still have this state in the Democratic column. And it will most likely stay there.

So, this overall prediction cannot possibly be based on empiric evidence yet, but rather, on using my eyes and seeing what is going on.

Setting aside the states that were never in play to begin with - and including the sudden Bayh resignation -, I have created a map showing the trend I see. The green states are states where the polling shows candidates mostly in the low fourties and a spread of single digits. This means that there are still too many undecideds, which means that those races can still go either way. Note also that NC is in the mix. The one state where there is absolutely no doubt at all must be ND. The GOP will pick up this state.

But just looking at the landscape, I believe we are witnessing the beginning of a Republican wave in the 2010 mid-terms. As I have already written, pick-ups by the opposition in the mid-terms are to be expected, but the severity of this wave is still to be seen. And we will only be able to really measure it once the primaries for all of the non-bedrock states are over with and tons of polling data is coming in.

Some significant changes I have made:

CO to lean DEM. Will explain those reasons soon.

IN to likely GOP with Bayh's retirement. Both Ellsworth and Hill could be formidable opponents: both have won major dogfights against republican adversaries on very GOP friendly turf. Nonetheless, name recognition is part of the game, and Coats is still much better known that either of those two representatives. Without Bayh, I suspect there will be a Coats win in 2010.

DE to leaning GOP, barring a major onslaught from Coons, which is still likely.

OH, PA, NH, MO and NC - all to tossup. This does not mean that I have no opinion on those states. It just means that in the absence of empiric data (since the primaries there are not done yet), such low polling numbers for both sides and such small spreads can mean anything at this point.

Politics are always local first, but waves tend to be national.

How will be know that the Democratic party may get a real pasting in November?

Watch the following two states:

NC - if the GOP pulls out way ahead, then this means there is really no endangered territory for the GOP at all. It will be in the position that Barack Obama was in in the fall of 2008.

OH - if the Democratic party starts to pick up steam in this the perennial battleground state, then we would see signs that the GOP wave is ebbing. We will only first know once the OH primaries are over with.

I wish to intone again that propaganda is not welcome on my prediction site. Comments are always welcome and anyone is free to take exception to my prediction. Alone, based on the fact that there is not any real empiric data (save a smidgeon for IL), then I myself take exception with any prediction. But alas, it was time to open a new thread.

Here are some good sites to watch the rankings:

The New York Times Senate Rankings

The Cook Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Electoral Vote.com

2010 Senate Midterms WIKI.

Hello, here is Bonncaruso, many of you remember me from the 2008 presidential predictions, where I pegged Obama's PV% within -0.10% of the actual result and missed only MO and NE-02 in the electoral college.

For personal reasons I have stayed out of the politics fray, but am now back. Will not have as much time as I once had, but will try to keep up with the gang here as much as possible. I still have my politics blog and will be updating it very soon. Noteworthy on this blog is the largest and most detailed analysis of the 9.25 Democratic pick-ups from 2008 that I have seen yet on the internet.

So, here we have a very, very interesting 2010 mid-term election season shaping up, one where the party in power is suffering because of a bad economy and the other party is logically profiting from the whole affair.

The current map is just a starter map. I have barely begun to look at the poll data, for as everyone who is experienced with politics knows, it is far to early to call anything for sure.

I have kept all percentages at simply over 50% and all wins at a generic "lean" for now. This is just the starting point, so please don't bicker about these small details.

Thoughts to ponder:

First, is it possible for the GOP to retake one or both houses of congress? The answer is: yes, of course it is possible, but statistically improbable. The GOP would have to flip 10 seats in the Senate, and that is a tall order for any party in just one cycle. The democrats flipped 6 seats in 2006, which was a feat in and of itself, and then it flipped another 8 seats in 2008 and then Arlen Specter switched teams, giving the Democratic party a super-majority that it is still learning to use effectively.

At first look, Arkansas and North Dakota look lost for the Democratic party. Nevada does not look much better. However, it would not surprise me if Reid, ala Chris Dodd, steps out of the race and shores that seat up for the blue team. In a state with such a burgeoning hispanic population that went 70-30 for Obama in 2008, a new candidate there could complete change the dynamic of the race overnight.

Second, the Chris Dodd story and the recent GOP coup in Massachusetts should remind us all that, at the end of the day, all politics is still local and that we should make no assumptions about any one state in the union.

Who would have ever thought that little West Virginia would take on such an extreme conservative tilt within just 20 years time? Who would have ever thought that Vermont, which went for the GOP 27 times straight before finally being captured by a Democrat in 1964, would now be statistically the second most liberal state in the Union, after Hawaii?

In Ohio, polling is showing a GOP lead, but Ohio can vascillate greatly and often. I would expect that Ohio will become a battleground state for the mid-terms just as it is usually for a GE.

Pennyslvania looks at this time as if the GOP can win, but knowing the political infrastructure of Pennsylvania and Arlen Specter's tenacity and longevity as a politician, I would not bet on the GOP flipping this seat. For this reason, I have not yet listed PA as a GOP pick-up.

Connecticut and Delaware are like girls who like to flirt with guys from the other side of the street and then go to the party with their preferred boyfriends, anyway. With or without Beau Biden, Delaware will probably stay blue.

I currently have Colorado as a GOP pick-up, but this can change, and faster than we can imagine.

But the trend is clearly GOP across the board. I see not one race where the Democratic party may get a pick-up, not yet at least.

So, for now, I see the Democratic Party losing 4 seats. Remember, this is just the beginning. A lot of things will happen between now and November. I see the GOP possibly picking-up 7 seats and will not rule out Lieberman switching parties, so in 2011, the Senate could very well be D52-R48, when all is said and done. It would, however, take a massive tidal wave for the GOP to pick up the three more seats that would be needed in order to have a R51-D49 majority.

Finally, it is not unusual for the party in power to lose seats at mid-term elections. What we are witnessing has major historical precedent. And for two term presidents, the second mid-term is usually worse for the party in power than the first mid-term was. 1998 is a noteworthy exception in all of this.

What however is very interesting to note is the numbers similarity between Obama and Ronald Reagan, when one looks at the first years of their presidencies, respectively.

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Facit: once the respective primaries are over with and we know who is really in for the long haul and who is not - then I will be able to make more informative predictions.