Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	11
Rep	25
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 |	37 |	37 |
Dem	10
Rep	21
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	-1	-1	10	7	17	+7
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats Democratic 11 38 49 Republican 25 23 48 Independent 1 2 3

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
62	35	27

Analysis

Races to watch (in no particular order):

1. Nevada
2. Illinois
3. Colorado
4. Washington
5. Alaska
6. Pennsylvania

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 107

My final prediction for The House:

Best case scenario (for Democrats): GOP +41

Best case scenario (for Republicans): GOP +55

Likely scenario: GOP +46

Version: 104

Colorado is a tie.

Version: 103

Colorado is a tie.

Version: 102

The House:

Best case scenario (for Democrats): GOP +36

Best case scenario (for Republicans): GOP +50

Likely scenario: GOP +41

The Senate:

Best case scenario (for Democrats): GOP +4 (GOP picks up ND, IN, AR, and WI)

Best case scenario (for Republicans): GOP +10 (GOP picks up ND, IN, AR, WI, PA, WV, CO, NV, IL, and WA)

Likely scenario: GOP +8 (GOP picks up ND, IN, AR, WI, PA, IL, NV, and CO)

Governorships:

Best case scenario (for Democrats): GOP +3 (GOP picks up KS, WY, TN, MI, OK, IA, PA, WI, ME, and NM, DEMS pick up CT, MN, CA, FL, HI, RI, and VT)

Best case scenario (for Republicans): GOP +10 (GOP picks up KS, WY, TN, MI, OK, IA, PA, WI, NM, OH, IL, ME, and OR, DEMS pick up CT, MN, and CA, IND picks up RI, CST picks up CO)

Likely scenario: GOP +6 (GOP picks up KS, WY, TN, MI, OK, IA, PA, WI, NM, OH, IL, OR, and ME, DEMS pick up CT, MN, CA, FL, HI, RI, and VT, IND picks up RI)

Version: 101

Pennsylvania is a tie.

Version: 100

100!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Pennsylvania is, of course, a tie.

Version: 98

The House:

Best case scenario (for Democrats): GOP +37

Best case scenario (for Republicans): GOP +51

Likely scenario: GOP +44

The Senate:

Best case scenario (for Democrats): GOP +3 (GOP picks up ND, IN, AR, and WI, DEMS pick up KY)

Best case scenario (for Republicans): GOP +10 (GOP picks up ND, IN, AR, WI, PA, WV, CO, NV, IL, and WA)

Likely scenario: GOP +6 (GOP picks up ND, IN, AR, WI, PA, and WV)

Governorships:

Best case scenario (for Democrats): GOP +3 (GOP picks up KS, WY, TN, MI, OK, IA, PA, WI, NM, and IL, DEMS pick up CT, MN, CA, FL, HI, RI, and VT)

Best case scenario (for Republicans): GOP +11 (GOP picks up KS, WY, TN, MI, OK, IA, PA, WI, NM, OH, IL, ME, MA, and OR, DEMS pick up CT, MN, and CA)

Likely scenario: GOP +5 (GOP picks up KS, WY, TN, MI, OK, IA, PA, WI, NM, OH, IL, and ME, DEMS pick up CT, MN, CA, FL, HI, RI, and VT)

Version: 78

With Washington coming more back into play, the GOP now has a clear path to retaking the senate. They would need to sweep the following states:

Missouri
Colorado
Illinois
West Virginia
Nevada
Washington

Version: 69

This map is based strictly on aggregates. Polls from Rassmusen, Fox News, and We Ask America are given a house bonus of R+4.

Version: 63

In the end, I think O'Donnell wins but LaMontage loses.

Version: 62

This map is if LaMontagne and O'Donnell win tommorow.

Version: 61

Note this map is based strictly on aggregates.

Version: 59

The GOP's main hope of retaking the Senate. Enjoy, Republicans, because this is probably the only time you will see Wisconsin that ugly blue.

Version: 39

This is what will happen if the economy gets substantially better before November. I consider that possible but not probable.

Once again, this will probably not happen, as sad as that is.

Version: 24

PA: There will obviously be a recount there. I can't imagine a closer race.

Version: 5

I based these predictions on a compilation of the most recent polls. I will try to dissect some key races.

California: Republicans could definitely win in California. The LA Times poll showing Tom Campbell up by 7% really surprised me. This may just be Campbell's day in the sun but it's proof this race will be competitive. If the Republicans nominate Carly Firiona she will probably still lose to Sen. Boxer. Obama is still popular in California which should give Boxer an edge, but Boxer seems to keep falling in the polls.

Arizona: John McCain is currently leading, but his position appears very similar to what Arlen Specter's was at this point before the primary. If JD Hayworth wins the primary this will be a much tougher seat to hold than if McCain is the winner

Nevada: Sue Lowden should be a shoe-in, and she was a couple of months ago. But she has run the worst campaign I've ever seen from a major party candidate, and it has gotten very close. Harry Reid will win a fifth term in a squeaker because of Lowden's incompetence, not because of anything about him.

Colorado: This state will be one of the closest of the cycle, and the polls have been back and forth. Jane Norton is the slight favorite largely because of the national mood, but this will come down to the wire.

Missouri: Despite a recent upswing towards the Democrats since the passage of the Health Care Insurance Reform bill, Robin Carnahan has consistently fallen farther behind, and a new Rasmussen poll shows her likely opponent, Roy Blunt, with his largest lead so far.

North Carolina: Democrats have been talking for months about launching a serious challenge to Richard Burr. Yet many people doubted whether unseating Burr was even possible in this political climate. But a recent Public Policy Polling poll of the race showed Democrat Elaine Marshall just 1 percentage point behind Burr. Whether Democrats will be able to unseat Burr will remain to be seen, but it is clear he is at least somewhat vulnerable.

Illinois: Mark Kirk has run an effective campaign against a inexperienced Alexi Giannoulias, and now has a slight lead in the polls.

Kentucky: Rand Paul is going collapse, as my hunch tells me, but the question is whether he will fall far enough. Kentucky Republicans will soon find out why Mitch McConnell backed Trey Grayson. The Republicans got lucky here the last two cycles, but that luck is numbered.

Ohio: Rob Portman was thought to be the favorite, but Lee Fisher has consistently caught up with him in the polls, albeit by margins within the margin of error.

Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak's suprise primary win shakes things up, and makes him look like the outsider, a role Pat Toomey has been trying to pivot into for months. That is the perfect role for him to be pivoting into for this election cycle, and in a battle of the Center-Left outsider vs. the Far-Right outsider, Center-Left Pennsylvania will chose Sestak.

Iowa: Normally a senator who couldn't be safer, Grassley has never won any of his re-election bids with less than 65%. But the 5 term incumbent is a 5 term incumbent in a year when that is seen as a serious flaw. Grassley is under 50% in the latest poll for the first time in many years, and Roxanne Conlin is down by just nine percentage points (she was down by 28 percentage points in January). Grassley still should win, however, because he's a 5 term incumbent, but the Democrats will keep it close because he's a 5 term incumbent.

Florida: Charlie Crist has broad support among Floridians, Democrats and Republicans, but without the backing of the Republicans he could be vulnerable. The polls have been back and forth but Kendrick Meek is consistently finishing a distant third.

Wisconsin: Russ Feingold has fairly high approval ratings but appears to be at least somewhat vulnerable. He should win, however, because he has not attracted a well-known opponent. Feingold would have been vulnerable had Tommy Thompson run, but it's unlikely that he would enter the race so late. But Feingold has been doing surprisingly poorly in the polls even against a bunch of Republican nobodies, so this is definitely not a safe seat.

Washington: Patty Murray became significantly more vulnerable May 24th with news Dino Rossi would enter the race. Murray's lead in the most recent poll was just 4 percent over Rossi, and this race has become significantly tougher for Murray. She still should win though, because Washington has trended towards Democrats in recent years.

New Hampshire: Former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte appears to have a pretty large lead in both the primary and the general. Paul Hodes would have an easier time against a different Republican challenger, but the one poll of the Republican primary shows Ayotte with a huge lead over her rivals.

Republicans will also obviously make gains in North Dakota, Delaware, and Indiana, and almost certainly Arkansas as well.

Safe Seats:

Democrats:

Oregon (Ron Wyden)
Hawaii (Dan Inouye)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)
New York (Special) (Kirsten Gillibrand)
New York (Chuck Schumer)
Vermont (Pat Leahy)

Republicans:

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)
Utah (Open)
Idaho (Mike Crapo)
North Dakota (John Hoeven)
South Dakota (John Thune)
Kansas (Open)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)
Arkansas (John Boozman)
Louisiana (David Vitter)
Indiana (Dan Coats)
Alabama (Richard Shelby)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint)
Delaware (Mike Castle)

Altogether, the Republicans will make moderate gains but will still be in the minority.

House of Representatives:

Democrats seem to be doing better here than in the Senate. Even vulnerable Democrats like Tom Perriello (Who is from a very conservative district in southern Virginia, yet voted for the Health Care Insurance Reform bill) seem to be holding on in the polls. And in the special elections for House seats Democrats have done very well (Except for HI-1, where nearly 60% of votes cast went to Democrats). Democrats will definitely lose some seats in the House but will surprisingly easily retain control of the lower chamber.

Version: 4

I based these predictions on a compilation of the most recent polls. I will try to dissect some key races.

California: Republicans have a shot if they nominate Tom Campbell. Otherwise they will almost certainly lose in strongly progressive California.

Arizona: John McCain is currently leading, but his position appears very similar to what Arlen Specter's was at this point before the primary. If JD Hayworth wins the primary this will be a much tougher seat to hold than if McCain is the winner

Nevada: Sue Lowden should be a shoe-in, and she was a couple of months ago. But she has run the worst campaign I've ever seen from a major party candidate, and it has gotten very close. Harry Reid will win a fifth term in a squeaker because of Lowden's incompetence, not because of anything about him.

Colorado: This state will be one of the closest of the cycle, and the polls have been back and forth. Jane Norton is the slight favorite largely because of the national mood, but this will come down to the wire.

Missouri: Despite a recent upswing towards the Democrats since the passage of the Health Care Insurance Reform bill, Robin Carnahan has consistently fallen farther behind, and a new Rasmussen poll shows her likely opponent, Roy Blunt, with his largest lead so far.

North Carolina: Democrats have been talking for months about launching a serious challenge to Richard Burr. Yet many people doubted whether unseating Burr was even possible in this political climate. But a recent Public Policy Polling poll of the race showed Democrat Elaine Marshall just 1 percentage point behind Burr. Whether Democrats will be able to unseat Burr will remain to be seen, but it is clear he is at least somewhat vulnerable.

Illinois: Mark Kirk has run an effective campaign against a inexperienced Alexi Giannoulias, and now has a slight lead in the polls.

Kentucky: Rand Paul is going collapse, as my hunch tells me, but the question is whether he will fall far enough. Kentucky Republicans will soon find out why Mitch McConnell backed Trey Grayson. The Republicans got lucky here the last two cycles, but that luck is numbered.

Ohio: Rob Portman was thought to be the favorite, but Lee Fisher has consistently caught up with him in the polls, albeit by margins within the margin of error.

Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak's suprise primary win shakes things up, and makes him look like the outsider, a role Pat Toomey has been trying to pivot into for months. That is the perfect role for him to be pivoting into for this election cycle, and in a battle of the Center-Left outsider vs. the Far-Right outsider, Center-Left Pennsylvania will chose Sestak.

Iowa: Normally a senator who couldn't be safer, Grassley has never won any of his re-election bids with less than 65%. But the 5 term incumbent is a 5 term incumbent in a year when that is seen as a serious flaw. Grassley is under 50% in the latest poll for the first time in many years, and Roxanne Conlin is down by just nine percentage points (she was down by 28 percentage points in January). Grassley still should win, however, because he's a 5 term incumbent, but the Democrats will keep it close because he's a 5 term incumbent.

Florida: Charlie Crist has broad support among Floridians, Democrats and Republicans, but without the backing of the Republicans he could be vulnerable. The polls have been back and forth but Kendrick Meek is consistently finishing a distant third.

Wisconsin: Russ Feingold has fairly high approval ratings but appears to be at least somewhat vulnerable. He should win, however, because he has not attracted a well-known opponent. Feingold would have been vulnerable had Tommy Thompson run, but it's unlikely that he would enter the race so late. But Feingold has been doing surprisingly poorly in the polls even against a bunch of Republican nobodies, so this is definitely not a safe seat.

Washington: Patty Murray became significantly more vulnerable May 24th with news Dino Rossi would enter the race. Murray's lead in the most recent poll was just 4 percent over Rossi, and this race has become significantly tougher for Murray. She still should win though, because Washington has trended towards Democrats in recent years.

New Hampshire: Former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte appears to have a pretty large lead in both the primary and the general. Paul Hodes would have an easier time against a different Republican challenger, but the one poll of the Republican primary shows Ayotte with a huge lead over her rivals.

Republicans will also obviously make gains in North Dakota, Delaware, and Indiana, and almost certainly Arkansas as well.

Safe Seats:

Democrats:

Oregon (Ron Wyden)
Hawaii (Dan Inouye)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)
New York (Special) (Kirsten Gillibrand)
New York (Chuck Schumer)
Vermont (Pat Leahy)

Republicans:

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)
Utah (Open)
Idaho (Mike Crapo)
North Dakota (John Hoeven)
South Dakota (John Thune)
Kansas (Open)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)
Iowa (Chuck Grassley)
Arkansas (John Boozman)
Louisiana (David Vitter)
Indiana (Dan Coats)
Alabama (Richard Shelby)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint)
Delaware (Mike Castle)

Altogether, the Republicans will make moderate gains but will still be in the minority.

House of Representatives:

Democrats seem to be doing better here than in the Senate. Even vulnerable Democrats like Tom Perriello (Who is from a very conservative district in southern Virginia, yet voted for the Health Care Insurance Reform bill) seem to be holding on in the polls. And in the special elections for House seats Democrats have done very well (Except for HI-1, where nearly 60% of votes cast went to Democrats). Democrats will definitely lose some seats in the House but will surprisingly easily retain control of the lower chamber.

Version: 3

I based these predictions on a compilation of the most recent polls. I will try to dissect some key races.

California: Republicans have a shot if they nominate Tom Campbell. Otherwise they will almost certainly lose in strongly progressive California.

Arizona: John McCain is currently leading, but his position appears very similar to what Arlen Specter's was at this point before the primary. If JD Hayworth wins the primary this will be a much tougher seat to hold than if McCain is the winner

Nevada: I thought Harry Reid would be in a much more dire situation by now but Sue Lowden's campaign has been erratic and ineffective, and Reid appears to suddenly be catching up in a recent poll, though that gain may be fleeting.

Colorado: This state will be one of the closest of the cycle, and the polls have been back and forth. Jane Norton is the slight favorite largely because of the national mood, but this will come down to the wire.

Missouri: Despite a recent upswing towards the Democrats since the passage of the Health Care Insurance Reform bill, Robin Carnahan has consistently fallen farther behind, and a new Rasmussen poll shows her likely opponent, Roy Blunt, with his largest lead so far.

North Carolina: Democrats have been talking for months about launching a serious challenge to Richard Burr. Yet many people doubted whether unseating Burr was even possible in this political climate. But a recent Public Policy Polling poll of the race showed Democrat Elaine Marshall just 1 percentage point behind Burr. Whether Democrats will be able to unseat Burr will remain to be seen, but it is clear he is at least somewhat vulnerable.

Illinois: Mark Kirk has run an effective campaign against a inexperienced Alexi Giannoulias, and now has a slight lead in the polls.

Kentucky: Rand Paul is going collapse, as my hunch tells me, but the question is whether he will fall far enough. Kentucky Republicans will soon find out why Mitch McConnell backed Trey Grayson. The Republicans got lucky here the last two cycles, but that luck is numbered.

Ohio: Rob Portman was thought to be the favorite, but Lee Fisher has consistently caught up with him in the polls, albeit by margins within the margin of error.

Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak's suprise primary win shakes things up, and makes him look like the outsider, a role Pat Toomey has been trying to pivot into for months. Sestak, who is to glory in being the underdog, will make things close, but the national mood will cost him.

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal was thought to be a shoe-in, but questions about whether he lied about his service in Vietnam have cut sharply into his lead, but he will survive in Super-Blue Connecticut.

Florida: Charlie Crist has broad support among Floridians, Democrats and Republicans, but without the backing of the Republicans he could be vulnerable. The polls have been back and forth but Kendrick Meek is consistently finishing a distant third.

Wisconsin: Russ Feingold has fairly high approval ratings but appears to be at least somewhat vulnerable. He should win, however, because he has not attracted a well-known opponent. Feingold would have been vulnerable had Tommy Thompson run, but it's unlikely that he would enter the race so late. But Feingold has been doing surprisingly poorly in the polls even against a bunch of Republican nobodies, so this is definitely not a safe seat.

Washington: Patty Murray became significantly more vulnerable May 24th with news Dino Rossi would enter the race. Murray's lead in the most recent poll was just 4 percent over Rossi, and this race has become significantly tougher for Murray. She still should win though, because Washington has trended towards Democrats in recent years.

New Hampshire: Former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte appears to have a pretty large lead in both the primary and the general. Paul Hodes would have an easier time against a different Republican challenger, but the one poll of the Republican primary shows Ayotte with a huge lead over her rivals.

Republicans will also obviously make gains in North Dakota, Delaware, and Indiana, and almost certainly Arkansas as well.

Safe Seats:

Democrats:

Oregon (Ron Wyden)
Hawaii (Dan Inouye)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)
New York (Special) (Kirsten Gillibrand)
New York (Chuck Schumer)
Vermont (Pat Leahy)

Republicans:

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)
Utah (Open)
Idaho (Mike Crapo)
North Dakota (John Hoeven)
South Dakota (John Thune)
Kansas (Open)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)
Iowa (Chuck Grassley)
Arkansas (John Boozman)
Louisiana (David Vitter)
Indiana (Dan Coats)
Alabama (Richard Shelby)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint)
Delaware (Mike Castle)

Altogether, the Republicans will make moderate gains but will still be in the minority.

House of Representatives:

Democrats seem to be doing better here than in the Senate. Even vulnerable Democrats like Tom Perriello (Who is from a very conservative district in southern Virginia, yet voted for the Health Care Insurance Reform bill) seem to be holding on in the polls. And in the special elections for House seats Democrats have done very well (Except for HI-1, where nearly 60% of votes cast went to Democrats). Democrats will definitely lose some seats in the House but will surprisingly easily retain control of the lower chamber.

Version: 2

I based these predictions on a compilation of the most recent polls. I will try to dissect some key races.

California: Republicans have a shot if they nominate Tom Campbell. Otherwise they will almost certainly lose in strongly progressive California.

Arizona: John McCain is currently leading, but his position appears very similar to what Arlen Specter's was at this point before the primary. If JD Hayworth wins the primary this will be a much tougher seat to hold than if McCain is the winner

Nevada: I thought Harry Reid would be in a much more dire situation by now but Sue Lowden's campaign has been erratic and ineffective, and Reid appears to suddenly be catching up in a recent poll, though that gain may be fleeting.

Colorado: This state will be one of the closest of the cycle, and the polls have been back and forth. Jane Norton is the slight favorite largely because of the national mood, but this will come down to the wire.

Missouri: Despite a recent upswing towards the Democrats since the passage of the Health Care Insurance Reform bill, Robin Carnahan has consistently fallen farther behind, and a new Rasmussen poll shows her likely opponent, Roy Blunt, with his largest lead so far.

North Carolina: Democrats have been talking for months about launching a serious challenge to Richard Burr. Yet many people doubted whether unseating Burr was even possible in this political climate. But a recent Public Policy Polling poll of the race showed Democrat Elaine Marshall just 1 percentage point behind Burr. Whether Democrats will be able to unseat Burr will remain to be seen, but it is clear he is at least somewhat vulnerable.

Illinois: Mark Kirk has run an effective campaign against a inexperienced Alexi Giannoulias, and now has a slight lead in the polls.

Kentucky: Rand Paul is going collapse, as my hunch tells me, but the question is whether he will fall far enough. Kentucky Republicans will soon find out why Mitch McConnell backed Trey Grayson. The Republicans got lucky here the last two cycles, but that luck is numbered.

Ohio: Rob Portman was thought to be the favorite, but Lee Fisher has consistently caught up with him in the polls, albeit by margins within the margin of error.

Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak's suprise primary win shakes things up, and makes him look like the outsider, a role Pat Toomey has been trying to pivot into for months. Sestak, who is to glory in being the underdog, will make things close, but the national mood will cost him.

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal was thought to be a shoe-in, but questions about whether he lied about his service in Vietnam have cut sharply into his lead, but he will survive in Super-Blue Connecticut.

Florida: Charlie Crist has broad support among Floridians, Democrats and Republicans, but without the backing of the Republicans he could be vulnerable. The polls have been back and forth but Kendrick Meek is consistently finishing a distant third.

Wisconsin: Russ Feingold has fairly high approval ratings but appears to be at least somewhat vulnerable. He should win, however, because he has not attracted a well-known opponent. Feingold would have been vulnerable had Tommy Thompson run, but it's unlikely that he would enter the race so late.

Washington: Patty Murray became significantly more vulnerable May 24th with news Dino Rossi would enter the race. Murray's lead in the most recent poll was just 4 percent over Rossi, and this race has become significantly tougher for Murray. She still should win though, because Washington has trended towards Democrats in recent years.

New Hampshire: Former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte appears to have a pretty large lead in both the primary and the general. Paul Hodes would have an easier time against a different Republican challenger, but the one poll of the Republican primary shows Ayotte with a huge lead over her rivals.

Republicans will also obviously make gains in North Dakota, Delaware, and Indiana, and almost certainly Arkansas as well.

Safe Seats:

Democrats:

Oregon (Ron Wyden)
Hawaii (Dan Inouye)
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski)
New York (Special) (Kirsten Gillibrand)
New York (Chuck Schumer)
Vermont (Pat Leahy)

Republicans:

Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)
Utah (Open)
Idaho (Mike Crapo)
North Dakota (John Hoeven)
South Dakota (John Thune)
Kansas (Open)
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)
Iowa (Chuck Grassley)
Arkansas (John Boozman)
Louisiana (David Vitter)
Indiana (Dan Coats)
Alabama (Richard Shelby)
Georgia (Johnny Isakson)
South Carolina (Jim DeMint)
Delaware (Mike Castle)

Altogether, the Republicans will make moderate gains but will still be in the minority.

Version: 1

I based these predictions on a compilation of the most recent polls. I will try to dissect some key races.

California: Republicans have a shot if they nominate Tom Campbell. Otherwise they will almost certainly lose in strongly progressive California.

Arizona: John McCain is currently leading, but his position appears very similar to what Arlen Specter's was at this point before the primary. If JD Hayworth wins the primary this will be a much tougher seat to hold than if McCain is the winner

Nevada: I thought Harry Reid would be in a much more dire situation by now but Sue Lowden's campaign has been erratic and ineffective, and Reid appears to suddenly be catching up in a recent poll, though that gain may be fleeting.

Colorado: This state will be one of the closest of the cycle, and the polls have been back and forth. Jane Norton is the slight favorite largely because of the national mood, but this will come down to the wire.

Missouri: Despite a recent upswing towards the Democrats since the passage of the Health Care Insurance Reform bill, Robin Carnahan has consistently fallen farther behind, and a new Rasmussen poll shows her likely opponent, Roy Blunt, with his largest lead so far.

Arkansas: This seat is quite likely to be a GOP pickup, and like her northern neighbor Carnahan, she has lost significant support recently. A recent Rasmussen poll has shown her losing by thirty-eight percentage points to Republican nominee opponent John Boozman. Bill Halter might be a better candidate, but only marginally.

Illinois: Mark Kirk has run an effective campaign against a inexperienced Alexi Giannoulias, and now has a slight lead in the polls.

Kentucky: Rand Paul is going collapse, as my hunch tells me, but the question is whether he will fall far enough. Kentucky Republicans will soon find out why Mitch McConnell backed Trey Grayson. The Republicans got lucky here the last two cycles, but that luck is numbered.

Ohio: Rob Portman was thought to be the favorite, but Lee Fisher has consistently caught up with him in the polls, albeit by margins within the margin of error.

Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak's suprise primary win shakes things up, and makes him look like the outsider, a role Pat Toomey has been trying to pivot into for months. Sestak, who is to glory in being the underdog, will make things close, but the national mood will cost him.

Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal was thought to be a shoe-in, but questions about whether he lied about his service in Vietnam have cut sharply into his lead, but he will survive in Super-Blue Connecticut.

Florida: Charlie Crist has broad support among Floridians, Democrats and Republicans, but without the backing of the Republicans he could be vulnerable. The polls have been back and forth but Kendrick Meek is consistently finishing a distant third.

Washington & Wisconsin: Patty Murray and Russ Feingold are in quite similar situations, having fairly high approval ratings but appearing to be fairly vulnerable. Both should win, however, because neither has a well-known opponent, at least for now. Feingold would have been vulnerable had Tommy Thompson run, but it's unlikely that he would enter the race so late. Murray could be in a very competitive race were Dino Rossi to enter the race, but otherwise she looks safe. Overall, both will likely win.

Republicans will also obviously make gains in North Dakota, Delaware, and Indiana.

Altogether, the Republicans will make moderate gains but will still be in the minority.

Version History

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Member Comments

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:11:32
Alaska: 37% Lisa Murkowski (W-I) 32% Joe Miller (R) 30% Scott McAdams (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:11:40
Washington: 51% Patty Murray (D) 49% Dino Rossi (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:11:47
Oregon: 58% Ron Wyden (D) 40% Jim Huffman (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:11:55
California: 52% Barbara Boxer (D) 45% Carly Fiorina (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:03
Hawaii: 66% Dan Inouye (D) 31% Cam Cavasso (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:11
Nevada: 48% Sharron Angle (R) 47% Harry Reid (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:18
Idaho: 68% Mike Crapo (R) 27% Tom Sullivan (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:28
Utah: 59% Mike Lee(R) 37% Sam Granato (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:12:40
Arizona: 59% John McCain (R) 37% Rod Glassman (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:05
Colorado: 50% Ken Buck (R) 48% Michael Bennet (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:13
North Dakota: 70% John Hoeven (R) 28% Tracy Potter (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:20
South Dakota: 100% John Thune (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:31
Kansas: 67% Jerry Moran (R) 27% Lisa Johnston (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:42
Oklahoma: 68% Tom Coburn (R) 29% Jim Rogers (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:50
Iowa: 61% Chuck Grassley (R) 36% Roxanne Conlin (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:13:59
Missouri: 53% Roy Blunt (R) 44% Robin Carnahan (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:14:12
Arkansas: 56% John Boozman (R) 41% Blanche Lincoln (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 10:14:33
Louisiana: 56% David Vitter (R) 41% Charlie Melancon (D) More to come soon, but that's all I had time for right now. Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 10:17:03

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 12:20:47
: ( Very depressing numbers.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:16
Wisconsin: 53% Ron Johnson (R) 46% Russ Feingold (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:24
Illinois: 48% Mark Kirk (R) 46% Alexi Giannoulias (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:33
Kentucky: 55% Rand Paul (R) 45% Jack Conway (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:40
Indiana: 56% Dan Coats (R) 38% Brad Ellsworth (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:49
Alabama: 63% Richard Shelby (R) 37% William Barnes (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:10:57
Ohio: 59% Rob Portman (R) 40% Lee Fisher (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:08
West Virginia: 53% Joe Manchin (D) 46% John Raese (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:17
New York: 65% Chuck Schumer (D) 33% Jay Townsend (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:26
New York Special: 58% Kirsten Gillebrand (D) 40% Joe DioGuardi (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:36
Pennsylvania: 52% Pat Toomey (R) 48% Joe Sestak (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:43
Maryland: 64% Barbara Mikulski (D) 35% Eric Wargotz (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:11:51
North Carolina: 54% Richard Burr (R) 42% Elaine Marshall (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:12:00
South Carolina: 63% Jim DeMint (R) 26% Alvin Greene (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:12:08
Georgia: 60% Johnny Isakson (R) 35% Michael Thurmond (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:12:20
Florida: 47% Marco Rubio (R) 31% Charlie Crist (I) 20% Kendrick Meek (D) Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 17:12:27

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:14:10
Vermont: 67% Pat Leahy (D) 30% Len Britton (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:14:19
Connecticut: 55% Richard Blumenthal (D) 45% Linda McMahon (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:14:30
New Hampshire: 57% Kelly Ayotte (R) 42% Paul Hodes (D)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:44:37
Delaware: 56% Chris Coons (D) 41% Christine O'Donnell (R)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:03:43
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 52% Tom Emmer (R) 34% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 13% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:05:59
Minnesota's 1st congressional district: Tim Walz (DFL) 60% Randy Demmer (R) 34% Steven Wilson (IP) 5% 2% reporting

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 22:09:16
Bachman is only up 7!! I hope Oberstar isn't in as much trouble as we thought...

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:20:07
Illinois Senate race: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 49% Mark Kirk (R) 46% 62% reporting GO ALEXI! Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 22:20:38

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:25:54
Colorado Senate race: Michael Bennet (D) 50% Ken Buck (R) 45% 10% reporting

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 22:29:23
With 41% in.... Bennet: 50% Buck: 45% This is good!!

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:29:50
Minnesota's 1st congressional district: Tim Walz (DFL) 55% Randy Demmer (R) 39% Steven Wilson (IP) 5% 10% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:33:02
Illinois Senate race: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 48% Mark Kirk (R) 46% 69% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:33:55
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 50% Tom Emmer (R) 37% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 19% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:39:27
Pennsylvania Senate race: Joe Sestak (D) 52% Pat Toomey (R) 48% 62% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:51:03
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 49% Tom Emmer (R) 38% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 27% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:51:45
Minnesota's 1st congressional district: Tim Walz (DFL) 51% Randy Demmer (R) 43% Steven Wilson (IP) 5% 20% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:52:57
Illinois Senate race: Mark Kirk (R) 48% Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47% 78% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 22:53:52
Colorado Senate race: Michael Bennet (D) 50% Ken Buck (R) 45% 18% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:01:17
Pennsylvania Senate race: Pat Toomey (R) 50% Joe Sestak (D) 50% 93% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:03:23
Minnesota's 1st congressional district: Tim Walz (DFL) 51% Randy Demmer (R) 43% Steven Wilson (IP) 5% 29% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:24:30
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 48% Tom Emmer (R) 39% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 39% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:24:54
Minnesota's 1st congressional district: Tim Walz (DFL) 51% Randy Demmer (R) 43% Steven Wilson (IP) 5% 41% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:25:45
Illinois Senate race: Mark Kirk (R) 48% Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46% 89% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-02 @ 23:31:08
Washington Senate race: Dino Rossi (R) 54% Patty Murray (D) 46% 29% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:01:00
It's official - Pat Toomey is the next Senator from PA: x Pat Toomey (R) 51% Joe Sestak (D) 49% 99% reporting Sestak put up a stronger than expected fight, but in the end it wasn't enough.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:02:21
Washington Senate race: Patty Murray (D) 51% Dino Rossi (R) 49% 59% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:04:18
And it's also official that Tim Walz has been reelected as my representative :)))))))))))))) : x Tim Walz (DFL) 51% Randy Demmer (R) 43% Steven Wilson (IP) 5% 60% reporting Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 00:04:52

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:05:22
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 47% Tom Emmer (R) 40% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 52% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:06:38
Illinois Senate race: Mark Kirk (R) 48% Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46% 96% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:09:24
Colorado Senate race: Michael Bennet (D) 49% Ken Buck (R) 46% 34% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:22:27
Colorado Senate race: Michael Bennet (D) 48% Ken Buck (R) 47% 43% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:26:30
Nevada Senate race: Harry Reid (D) 50% Sharron Angle (R) 45% Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 00:26:46

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:53:45
Colorado Senate race: Ken Buck (R) 49% Michael Bennet (D) 46% 48% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:24:10
Here's a potential shocker: Maine Governor's race: Paul LePage (R) 38% Eliot Cutler (I) 37% Libby Mitchell (D) 19%

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:25:12
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 47% Tom Emmer (R) 40% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 62% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:26:26
Colorado Senate race: Ken Buck (R) 48% Michael Bennet (D) 47% 57% reporting

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-03 @ 01:30:16
AP says Buck's surge is probably a polling error...

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:31:31
Vermont Governor's race: Peter Shumlin (D) 50% Brian Dubie (R) 48% 94% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:36:39
Alaska senate race: Lisa Murkowski (W-I) 40% Joe Miller (R) 34% Scott McAdams (D) 25% 34% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:43:49
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 45% Tom Emmer (R) 42% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 60% reporting Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 01:47:04

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:15:22
Colorado Senate race: Michael Bennet (D) 47% Ken Buck (R) 47% 87% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:16:17
Alaska senate race: Lisa Murkowski (W-I) 41% Joe Miller (R) 34% Scott McAdams (D) 24% 99% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:17:27
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 44% Tom Emmer (R) 43% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 97% reporting

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By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 10:38:28
looks like Oberstar went down to defeat in the wave which was monumental on the House side. And looks like Dayton will squeak by in the vote... Bennet is back on top so my -6 might be right with an exchange of Penn (really close) for Nevada (not so close-nice ground gain)

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 14:51:35
Colorado Senate race: Michael Bennet (D) 48% Ken Buck (R) 47% 97% reporting I'm crossing all of my fingers on this one.

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-03 @ 14:57:21
I don't see how Buck pulls this out. The only counties yet to fully report are Boulder and Arapahoe...Bennet is ahead in both of them and his lead in Boulder county will probably grow even more.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 14:58:39
We have seen bigger shockers before...

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 15:21:02
Illinois Governor's race: Pat Quinn (D) 47% Bill Brady (R) 46% 99% reporting

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-03 @ 15:31:12
With 99.6% in Quinn-46.5% Brady-46.2% All counties are in except for Cook. Once all of Cook is in, Quinn will likely expand his lead. Amazing.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 20:23:02
Oregon Governor's race: Chris Dudley (R) 48.8% John Kitzhaber (D) 48.5% 97% reporting

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 21:36:30
GO PAT! GO JOHN!

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 00:51:38
Looks like we lost Illinois but may gain Oregon.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:12:40
Oregon has been called for Kitzhaber: Oregon Governor's race: x John Kitzhaber (D) 49.1% Chris Dudley (R) 48.2% 99% reporting The same Multnomah county votes that buried Smith also buried Dudley. Last Edit: 2010-11-04 @ 13:14:30

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:14:16
Vermont Governor's race: Peter Shumlin (D) 49% Brian Dubie (R) 48% 98% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:15:45
Washington Senate race: Patty Murray (D) 51% Dino Rossi (R) 49% 71% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:18:31
Connecticut Governor's race: Dan Malloy (D) 49.5% Tom Foley (R) 49.0% 99% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:19:20
Illinois Governor's race: Pat Quinn (D) 47% Bill Brady (R) 46% 100% reporting

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 13:20:17
Minnesota Governor's race: Mark Dayton (DFL) 44% Tom Emmer (R) 43% Tom Horner (IP) 12% 100% reporting In case you haven't been following this one, it's going to a recount.

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-04 @ 14:00:40
albaleman, What the h*ll happened with Jim Oberstar!!!? He had NO excuse to lose!

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 17:20:34
I agree with you, he shouldn't have lost, but here's why he lost: 1. He is an insider, having served 36 years in the house. 2. His district isn't as liberal as it used to be and he had an excellent opponent. 3. He didn't realize how vulnerable he was until it was too late.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 17:25:51
IL called for Quinn!

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-04 @ 18:33:31
YES!!!!! That was a pleasant surprise. Quinn really has my respect; he was the only Dem to survive the Rustbelt GOP wave.

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-04 @ 18:34:26
Still, Oberstar has done SOO much for his district. I did the sense that he underestimated Cravaack though...

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By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 19:50:34
I agree with the Quinn comment. I am happy with a few other governor surprises too. Basically thought the Dems reclaimed blue states while the GOP reclaimed red states PLUS took the big prizes in the rust belt...more power to them in redistricting...

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-05 @ 09:35:03
Washington called for Murray!

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-06 @ 10:28:07
Well, I think it's time to write a wrap on the election: I was very disappointed with the results, but of course I knew I would be coming in. With the statehouses I thought we did horrible. I certainly didn't expect that we would lose so many of them. With the Senate I felt we did marginally better than expected, winning suprise wins in Nevada and Colorado. I also felt we did slightly better than expected with the Governorships, winning upsets in Connecticut and Illinois even as we lost Florida. But the house is unacceptable. I can't believe we lost so many house seats.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-07 @ 13:10:35
This ought to be a kick in the shins for Rassmusen: Hawaii Senate race: Rassmusen poll: Inouye +13% Actual result: Inouye +53% THEY WERE OFF BY 40%!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 13:16:58
LOL>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 16:51:16
Dan Malloy has been declared the next governor of Connecticut.

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 20:11:41
YYYYYYEEEEEESSSSSSS!!!!!!! At least I'll get one point on that race...

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-08 @ 20:34:21
I liked Foley, but the Dems need all the governorships they can get! They'll be down to 20 after this year, which is very low and they could lose up to 4 in 2012!!

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 20:41:00
WA will likley flip parties, but McKenna has moved to the right, so we'll see...

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By: MilesC56 (I-VA) 2010-11-09 @ 00:02:04
Bev Perdue's popularity has been stuck in the mid-30's. I hope the GOP nominates a moron against her. MT is an unknown; Schweitzer is still popular, but its a GOP-leaning swing state. Then, Manchin's seat may flip; WV is still a Dixiecrat state, but the GOP bench is getting stronger. The Demcorats could probably find a good candidate, but Capito may run.

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-10 @ 07:40:27
VOTE! http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127802.0

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-10 @ 18:36:13
^&*#.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-12 @ 17:36:44
The Vermont legislature has (unsurprisingly) chosen Peter Shumlin to be Vermont's next Governor. Last Edit: 2010-11-12 @ 17:38:11

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-12 @ 18:10:13
Very happy with that one !

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-12 @ 19:18:03
: ( So much for moderates.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-13 @ 10:42:49
http://www.adn.com/2010/11/12/1551982/murkowski-on-track-to-win-on-write.html *GULP* Go Lisa! Last Edit: 2010-11-13 @ 10:43:01

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-13 @ 14:13:28
....Loves it! Palin will have a fit with that one.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-13 @ 18:44:08
Who cares what she thinks???

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-13 @ 19:29:42
LISA MURKOWSKI FOR SENATE!!!!! Sarah will be soooo mad... Can't wait.... : ))))))))

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-14 @ 01:16:03
Again who cares?

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By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-14 @ 03:39:07
Well, I think the Tea Party base that put Palin on a pedastal might just care.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-14 @ 12:29:44
Sorry CR but she's not just any conservative. And this is not just a defeat for her. It's a monumental defeat for her. Her candidate in her home state has been beaten by a write-in candidate. That's embarrassing. Last Edit: 2010-11-14 @ 12:33:48

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-14 @ 12:35:35
On the other hand she won't admit Murkowski won. She'll just say Murkowski stole the election.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-14 @ 14:39:27
Her candidate was beaten by a sitting US Senator, an incumbent, who's family has a lot of name recognition and power in a fairly small state (as far as population goes that is). Murkowski ran an excellent campaign and she dealt Miller some fatal blows. So it wasn't just any write-in off the street. And Lisa is still caucusing with our party so the seat remains in GOP hands. McAdams didn't even come close to either Miller or Murkowski. But I did see that Palin's former Lt Governor, now governor, did win reelection. See supported him too though it was not as high profiled as the senate race.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-14 @ 16:34:18
Furthermore, there is a LOT of bad blood between the Murkowski family and Palin. The way Palin got the GOP nod for governor was by beating Frank Murkowski, the incumbent.

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By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-14 @ 16:57:39
This is a blow to Palin no matter how you slice it!

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-14 @ 17:39:32
Agreed.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-15 @ 20:33:51
Her former Lt Governor is still governor so I like to think of it as a draw. Sarah makes her endorsements and people are free to make up their own minds. Simple as that.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-15 @ 22:32:28
In Alaska. Sean was going to win anyway, because he's a Republican and because he's not completely crazy.

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By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-16 @ 20:37:35
He was still her Lt Governor. Hey any word on what is happening with the governor's race in Minnesota? Afraid I've lost track. Last Edit: 2010-11-16 @ 20:45:49

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-17 @ 09:55:08
Well, it's going to a recount barring a miracle. Dayton still leads by about 8,500 votes, or about 0.4%. Following that the Emmer campaign is gearing up for a likely legal challenege.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-17 @ 20:01:40
http://www.adn.com/2010/11/17/1559505/murkowski-emerges-as-winner-in.html : ) Last Edit: 2010-11-17 @ 20:04:55

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-18 @ 07:58:03
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/17/extra_bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-18 @ 13:11:43
lol

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-19 @ 17:07:28
Well I think it's time for my closing comments. As I said earlier, this rebuke of the Democrats (or more accurately incumbent party) was disappointing but not unexpected. Any time the unemployment rate is in the vicinity 10% the incumbent party will be soundly defeated. Hopefully we can bounce back in 2012. I've had a great time on the atlas, it's been a blast. There's really nothing quite like it. To KS, BushCountry, Miles, ConservRep, colin, d-russ, Liberalrocks, dnul, and all the other posters on the atlas, thank you, you are what makes this site special. ONWARD TO 2012! Last Edit: 2010-11-19 @ 17:09:12

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-19 @ 20:35:41
FORWARD!!!!! FEINGOLD 2012! (Yes, I just said that) ; ) This really is a unique place. I've had a blast here as well.

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By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-20 @ 01:43:46
One last comment from me to my fellow MN...what do you think of the lawsuit in our state for the governorship...we used to have such a nice place to run elections...

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-20 @ 17:07:09
It's really too bad. There used to be a common courtesy that existed among things like this, but that doesn't exist anymore. The fact is that the Emmer folks have absolutely no chance of winning and I think they know that. A recount almost never changes the results by more than 1,000 votes. But they'll keep it going as long as they can so Pawlenty can stay in office, regardless of the cost (to the taxpayers), because that's the next best thing for them. So much for "cutting spending". And I, like many Minnesotans, was disgusted at the behavior of Tony Sutton at his press conference the day after the election. This is a grown man in a position of leadership, and yet he acted like a 4 year old who wasn't getting his way. Embarrassing.

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By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-12-08 @ 00:22:28
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/12/07/tom-emmer-concedes-minnesota-race-for-governor/

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By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-12-13 @ 19:12:33
YYYEEEESSS!!

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