Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:13

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	10
Rep	27
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	22
Ind	0
Tos	7
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-4	-9	7	3	10	-9
Rep	+5	+4	+9	0	0	0	10	8	18	+9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	10	38	48
Republican	27	23	50
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
61	33	28

Analysis

It's looking like Miller still has at least 35 percent support. I'm thinking valid Murkowski write-ins will likely fall short of that, but AK and WA are the true toss-ups, and we won't know the results in either case for a while after election night.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	/56	/56	/112	%					682
2020 Senate	/35	/35	/70	%					422
2020 Governor	/11	/11	/22	%					292
2019 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	146	35	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	3	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	34/36	24/36	58/72	80.6%	1	3	56	T	372
2016 President	49/56	33/56	82/112	73.2%	5	1	149	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	17/34	48/68	70.6%	1	1	164	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	7/12	17/24	70.8%	1	1	14	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	24/36	58/72	80.6%	6	1	60	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	20/36	51/72	70.8%	5	0	22	T	300
2012 President	54/56	34/56	88/112	78.6%	16	0	534	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	20/33	52/66	78.8%	5	3	74	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	9/11	19/22	86.4%	3	12	5	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	41/52	22/52	63/104	60.6%	28	-	27	T	231
2010 Senate	33/37	28/37	61/74	82.4%	13	1	34	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	23/37	56/74	75.7%	6	1	106	T	312
2008 President	47/56	30/56	77/112	68.8%	8	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	2	281	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	40/52	22/52	62/104	59.6%	13	-	36	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	23/49	64/98	65.3%	15	-	3	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	585/664	374/664	959/1328	72.2%