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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:42

Prediction Map
colin MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
colin MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep29
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-6-5-11628-11
Rep+6+5+1100010818+11
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic83846
Republican292352
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
533122
piepiepie

Analysis

This will be my final Senate prediction this year. Washington, California and West Virginia are the races to watch election night in my mind. I am pretty confident in every other one of my predictions. Turnout is going to be the deciding factor. The bottom line is that independents are breaking for the GOP and enthusiasm and turnout will strongly favour the Republicans. I think it is going to ultimately tip these close races in their favour. I am not ruling out all three of these races going to the Democrats. However, given the nature of the political climate at this time, and how close the final polling is in all three races, I am predicting GOP wins. As for the House, I think the Democrats are going to watch in shock and awe as the floor falls out from under them. This is a once in a lifetime election. We probably won't see something of this proportion again. I won't make a specific prediction, but if the gains are below 60 seats, I will be VERY surprised. Let the GOP learn from this and govern differently over the next two years. It's the economy, stupid!!!


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 01:00:15 prediction Map
We did great colin!

Victory in 2010!!!!

 By: Olawakandi (D-CA) 2010-11-04 @ 08:21:45 prediction Map
Unfortunately for us, this was the wrong time, because except for MN and IL and NY and CA, you guys will be in control of the redistricting process. And all the Dems can lose in 2012. But some of those GOP that won in the north aren't gonna be there anyways in 2012 due to the loss of congressional seats in the North anyways.

 By: colin (R-ON) 2010-11-04 @ 23:19:53 prediction Map
what a change from 2008 CR!! Very exciting! Was hoping for the Senate to be a bit better, but can't complain! Yes, the Democrats are in for a tough time at redistricting...and maybe legislatures such as in Ohio will eliminate Dem districts? Ohio is slated to lose two and it could very easily be redrawn to eliminate say Sutton and possibly Ryan. It will be very tough for Dems...

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-05 @ 01:13:13 prediction Map
You said it Colin! Biggest congressional win since World War II! I'm stunned at the number of state houses we picked up. Outside of Illinois and Minnesota we have almost unchallenged control of the Midwest in addition to much of the South and strength in the West. Hell we even captured the whole state government of Maine. Redistricting should be very favorable to us but also these will be good breeding grounds for future candidates that we'll need. The governor's races were also very exciting and we did so well.

I too wanted more seats in the Senate but taking into account that we needed 10 for the majority gaining 6 got us over half way there. Not bad considering we were up against popular state officials, incumbent machines loaded with cash, and playing in a lot of very blue states. Democrats did this well in 2006 with the only difference being that they were closer to the 51 mark then than we were before Tuesday's election. If we can gain another 6 or 7 in 2012 we'll be set. I'll take 47 seats over 40 or 41 any day.

And the House, I can't say enough about the House. Looks like we'll end up with something like +63. We haven't had this many seats since the late 1940's. I think the final count may shake out around 242. We basically control the state governments and we have a senate filibuster with some teeth. Those will be our shields. The House will be our sword.

A historic night and this puts us in a good place going into 2012! Onward to victory but its not over yet!

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-05 @ 16:38:38 prediction Map
Did you seriously think that California and West Virginia would go Republican?

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-05 @ 18:04:23 prediction Map
"Unfortunately for us, this was the wrong time, because except for MN and IL and NY and CA, you guys will be in control of the redistricting process. And all the Dems can lose in 2012."

As I recall, Democrats have about the same number of Governorships as they did during the last redistricting. Also, I think the Dems will gain house seats in 2012. They may lose some due to redistricting but a lot of Republicans who were elected in 2010 will be vulnerable in 2012.

Last Edit: 2010-11-05 @ 18:04:33

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 00:19:51 prediction Map
Well I think an argument can be made that West Virginia was winnable this year. We had an open seat in a pretty conservative state where the president had very low approval numbers. Manchin had to run very far to the right to win this race despite his high popularity. So I think in the end West Virginia was a tossup and a potential GOP pick up but the governor's popular simply won out over the national wave.

As far as redistricting goes, the GOP has not been in this favorable a position in a long time. We are now in control of some key areas and important battlegrounds. Our wins will help us a lot in the coming years. I'm sure some Republicans could be more vulnerable in 2012 but so will a lot of Democrats, especially in the Senate. The big issue of 2012, however, will be the presidential election. Most things will stem from that race and there are just too many unknowns right now to make many firm predictions.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-06 @ 10:01:35 prediction Map
"As far as redistricting goes, the GOP has not been in this favorable a position in a long time."

Well, lets look at the states where they do redistricting, comparing then to now:

Washington:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Oregon:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

California:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Hawaii:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Idaho:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Utah:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Arizona:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Colorado:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Democratic governor

New Mexico:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Nebraska:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Kansas:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Oklahoma:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Texas:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Minnesota:

2000 - Reform party governor
2010 - probably DFL governor

Iowa:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Republican governor

Missouri:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Arkansas:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Louisiana:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Wisconsin:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Illinois:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Kentucky:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Tennesee:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Alabama:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Republican governor

Michigan:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Ohio:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Indiana:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Republican governor

West Virginia:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

New York:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Pennsylvania:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Maryland:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Virginia:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

North Carolina:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

South Carolina:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Republican governor

Georgia:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Republican governor

Florida:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Republican governor

Massachusetts:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Conneticuit:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - probably Democratic governor

New Hampshire:

2000 - Democratic governor
2010 - Democratic governor

Rhode Island:

2000 - Republican governor
2010 - Independent governor

Maine:

2000 - Independent governor
2010 - Republican governor

Sounds pretty similar to me, PLUS Democrats have control of New York and Illinois (unlike last time).

Last Edit: 2010-11-06 @ 10:04:35

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-06 @ 10:02:21 prediction Map
"Well I think an argument can be made that West Virginia was winnable this year."

Not if you had looked at the most recent polling.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-06 @ 10:46:10 prediction Map
"I'm sure some Republicans could be more vulnerable in 2012 but so will a lot of Democrats, especially in the Senate."

Sorry CR. The vulnerable house Democrats are mostly gone now. Though some will become vulnerable due to redistricting, they will be more than offset by the many vulnerable Republicans swept into office by the wave this year. And in the senate, yes there will be vulnerable Democratic-held seats, but some such as Montana have become safer as time has gone on.


 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-06 @ 10:46:22 prediction Map
Well, on to 2012! I think Obama may squeak by because the GOP does not have a formidable candidate.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-06 @ 19:53:22 prediction Map
"A historic night and this puts us in a good place going into 2012!"

I would strongly caution that you not over read your mandate. This election was not about how great the Republicans were or how bad the Democrats were. In fact, approval ratings are equally dismal (roughly speaking) for both parties. No this election was about the economy. The reality is that when the economy is bad, the incumbent party will take a beating every two years until the economy gets better.

Last Edit: 2010-11-06 @ 19:54:37

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 20:10:51 prediction Map
That's true on the governor's side albaleman but I'm referring more to the state legislatures and our historic gains in those bodies which are equal responsible for redistricting. So yes, we are in a stronger position as compared to the last time around.

When I say West Virginia was winnable I mean that it was at some point. John Raese had the lead for a few weeks and was polling ahead of Manchin. It took Joe a lot of work and campaigning further to the right than most Democrats to get elected. So the race was competitive at one point and time. But Manchin finished strong and made good case for himself.

We disagree on our respective parties chances in various states, which is fine. But the fact is that Democrats have more to lose in the Senate in 2012 than the GOP. In the House, I don't know. We'll have to see how the GOP governs there. If they do good by the people they will retain control. If not they won't. Its that simple. I'm happy with where we are right now. I'll worry about 2012 when we get there.

But you are right, we are on to 2012. The here is that we don't know who the GOP will nominate so we don't know if the challenger will be formidable or not. We have to get candidates declared, have debate, see who emerges strong, and then take on Obama. A tall order in any situation but one I'm excited about. The primaries for all practical purposes start next year.

I will agree with you on one point though. This election was not about how great the Republicans are. In fact we're on probation from the American people. A second chance to prove that we will follow through on our principles. The approval is abysmal for both parties and with good reason. But this election was a direct repudiation on the part of the Democrats and their agenda that the American people have rejected as not working. The same thing happened to us in 2006 and 2008. You and I also agree it is all about the economy and it is the agenda in Washington that is seen to either help or hurt it. Right now the people want something different. I hope the GOP plans to deliver on that point.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-07 @ 12:38:38 prediction Map
Well I agree with a good deal of what you said CR. However, the redistricting is set up so that the Governors have far more power than the state legislature. When push comes to shove, the governors get their way with redistricting. After all, they're the ones that actually draw the borders!

Last Edit: 2010-11-07 @ 12:39:27

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 12:40:36 prediction Map
I fear Dan Boren's district is going to be chopped up into pieces.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 12:59:58 prediction Map
It's going to be bad especially in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Penn., and Ohio.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-07 @ 19:08:11 prediction Map
"I fear Dan Boren's district is going to be chopped up into pieces."

Boren is so popular it might not matter.

Yes the redistricting will be bad this time, but not historically nor much worse than last time. The one place it will be significantly worse than last time will be the south, where there are very few Democrats anyway.

Last Edit: 2010-11-07 @ 19:09:34

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 19:09:16 prediction Map
Oh, no it's very vulnerable. He underperformed expectations this year, getting by with 56%. For someone with his dynastic name, that's bad.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-07 @ 19:09:59 prediction Map
In a district McCain won 2-1, and in a year that was terrible for Democrats and even worse for Southern Democrats.

Last Edit: 2010-11-07 @ 19:12:34

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 19:43:42 prediction Map
True, but this is a sign of weakness Chet Edwards showed in 2008 and look what happened to him.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-07 @ 22:16:23 prediction Map
I think that we could redistrict enough in the South and much of the Midwest to ensure that we have an easier time in at least 10 to 25 seats. Every little bit helps in a process like this.

I saw that the GOP gained majorities in Minnesota's legislature. With the state slated to lose an electoral vote since the census maybe we have a change to save Bachmann's district :))))

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 23:00:19 prediction Map
Not if we have Governor Dayton...

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 09:42:53 prediction Map
Which we probably do.

 By: colin (R-ON) 2010-11-08 @ 10:32:01 prediction Map
sorry everyone...I've been out of the loop for the past couple of days. You are right CR, redistricting looks to be even better for us than 2000. I'm hoping that Emmer wins in MN (although not counting on it...don't worry al lol). In fact, it may be easier to talk about states where redistricting may NOT go so well for the GOP, as the list is much smaller. There are several factors to take into consideration as well. Californians voted to have a non-partisan committee draw the districts as opposed to the state government. This may actually help Republicans, we will see. Although, Floridians did the same. While Florida is slated to pick up two seats, we may lose a couple as the last redistricting heavily favoured us there. North Carolina (where we somehow only managed to pick up one seat) elected GOP majorities in both the state house and the state senate for the first time in over a hundred years. The interesting part of this equation is that while the state has a Democratic governor, she has absolutely no say in the redistricting process. It is the only state where the governor cannot veto redistricting. We may pick up some seats in NC next time around as a result. New York and Illinois, as al stated, will probably not go as well for us, but they are also slated to lose seats. The only state that I can really think of where the Democrats are gaining seats, and the they are in control is Washington. This is going to be very interesting to watch play out...

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 16:46:27 prediction Map
"You are right CR, redistricting looks to be even better for us than 2000."

Well, I disagree. It looks about the same. You are both vastly overestimating the powers of the state legislature. The reality is that, when push comes to shove, the governor almost always gets his/her way. This is true not just of redistricting but also with almost everything else. Us Minnesota DFLers have learned this lesson the hard way many times over the last 8 years under Gov. Pawlenty. Well, now the tables have [probably] turned. 9,000 votes may not sound like a lot, but it's am extremely daunting edge in a recount.

Last Edit: 2010-11-08 @ 18:24:51

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 18:24:11 prediction Map
Also CR, I believe the latest totals show Missouri, not Minnesota, losing that seat.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 18:57:15 prediction Map
I guess we'll just have to disagree on the redistricting process. I think we're in a good position.

As for the electors, I thought at last count both Minnesota and Missouri were slated to lose a seat. I sure hope Missouri doesn't it.

 By: colin (R-ON) 2010-11-09 @ 00:29:13 prediction Map
I'm pretty sure Missouri is supposed to lose a seat...sorry CR =(

 By: colin (R-ON) 2010-11-09 @ 00:29:58 prediction Map
maybe they can carve up Russ Carnahan's district? =)

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-09 @ 00:55:54 prediction Map
Oh that would be fantastic! :D

Either way I'll probably end up in a new district as MO-9 is the last district and will have to go. Maybe we'll get absorbed into Vicky Harstler's district in MO-4, my birth place. That would be the best outcome for me.

But whether or not Missouri loses an elector has gone back and forth ever since the census was taken. We'll just have to wait for the final results.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 08:18:47 prediction Map
Carving up Carnahan's district would be very difficult and could endanger some GOP incumbents.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-09 @ 14:35:58 prediction Map
Yes, and also the Governor of Missouri is a Democrat.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 15:48:21 prediction Map
Nixon would never let Carnahan be gerrymadered out of his seat.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-09 @ 19:36:24 prediction Map
I believe we Republicans have the numbers now to be able to override Nixon's vetos in the state legislature. Assuming vetos apply to the redistricting process.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 19:40:21 prediction Map
I don't think they do.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-10 @ 20:43:06 prediction Map
"Assuming vetos apply to the redistricting process. "

They do not. Nixon is the only person to draw up the maps, then the legislature votes yes or no to whatever Nixon submits.

Last Edit: 2010-11-10 @ 20:45:58


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 266
P 2016 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 9 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 4 1 164T362
P 2016 Governor 11/12 8/12 19/24 79.2% pie 2 1 1T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 18 1 60T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 12 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 228 138T153
P 2012 President 53/56 41/56 94/112 83.9% pie 28 1 367T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 11 1 94T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 6/11 15/22 68.2% pie 3 48 131T228
P 2010 Senate 31/37 22/37 53/74 71.6% pie 42 0 167T456
P 2010 Governor 31/37 24/37 55/74 74.3% pie 23 0 118T312
P 2008 President 49/56 44/56 93/112 83.0% pie 16 2 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 2 3 281T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 2 3 212T264
P 2006 U.S. Senate 25/33 13/33 38/66 57.6% pie 1 1 402T465
P 2006 Governor 30/36 13/36 43/72 59.7% pie 1 1 232T312
P 2004 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 3 1 283T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 512/575 342/575 854/1150 74.3% pie



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