PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - Scifiguy (I-VA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:10

Prediction Map
Scifiguy MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Scifiguy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep25
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep25
 
Ind0
 
Tos1
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-88311-8
Rep+4+4+80-1-110717+7
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic113849
Republican252348
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
593524
piepiepie

Analysis

My Final Map

Still not sure about Alaska, but really, I don't think anyone actually is. It could go to either one of them at this point. Only one thing is certain about Alaska at this point: We won't know on November 2nd.

Pennsylvania is beyond saving for Sestak, it looks like the GOP is finally going to get Pennsylvania.

Illinois? I'd give it about a 20% chance for Giannoulias at this point. Kirk looks to be leading every poll, if only by about 3-5%.

Nevada is gone, it's been that way for a while. Angle will be a Senator-elect in 48 hours.

Feingold is out.

Manchin is staying in, or if I'm proven wrong, and a GOP Tidal Wave sweeps him away, the Democrats will lose the Senate as well.


Here's to hoping I'm wrong!


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 519
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 287
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 199
P 2016 President 53/56 37/56 90/112 80.4% pie 26 0 10T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 18/34 49/68 72.1% pie 17 1 120T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 7/12 17/24 70.8% pie 18 1 14T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 15 8 8T112
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 58 1 21T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 19/36 49/72 68.1% pie 40 1 56T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 19 1T153
P 2012 President 56/56 42/56 98/112 87.5% pie 90 0 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 22/33 53/66 80.3% pie 7 2 56T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 3 15 157T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 25/52 71/104 68.3% pie 99 - 4231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 5 44 2T106
P 2010 Senate 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 10 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 21/37 54/74 73.0% pie 10 1 130T312
Aggregate Predictions 376/409 253/409 629/818 76.9% pie



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