Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-30 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	26
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	10
Rep	23
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-4	-8	8	3	11	-8
Rep	+4	+4	+8	0	0	0	10	8	18	+8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	11	38	49
Republican	26	23	49
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
62	34	28

Analysis

I won't comment on every change in my predictions, just the most striking change. When I made my previous prediction, I had thought O'Donnell might be able to catch lighting in a bottle to make it close, but it's clear now that she will not strike lightning twice so I'm moving Coons from a 40% tossup to 50% strong.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	52/56	32/56	84/112	75.0%	12	5	575	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	17/35	47/70	67.1%	1	24	358	T	423
2018 Senate	29/35	17/35	46/70	65.7%	1	356	362	T	483
2016 President	50/56	28/56	78/112	69.6%	14	10	325	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	19/34	49/68	72.1%	1	73	120	T	362
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	19	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	48	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	26/33	58/66	87.9%	22	0	2	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	2	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	36/52	13/52	49/104	47.1%	18	-	75	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	2	3	21	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	29/37	62/74	83.8%	1	3	17	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	137	92	T	103
2008 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	79	1	100	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	28/33	61/66	92.4%	17	2	2		465
2006 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	16	2	6	T	312
2004 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	47	1	66	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	568/627	396/627	964/1254	76.9%