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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:20
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 74)
Analysis
This election will come down to a few toss-ups. If the GOP manages to take IL plus 2 of these 3: CA, WA, and WV, then they will take control of the Senate. Whether Murkowski or Miller wins in AK is irrelevant to Senate math, but I tip my hat to Miller. And McMahon still has a better chance than I believe the polls show in CT, but Blumenthal is favored. I believe CO and NV tilt pretty strongly GOP and all other GOP pickups and currently held seats are safe for them, including PA, where talk of a Democratic resurgence is a serious pipe dream.
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