Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2010-03-18 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	13
Rep	23
Ind	0
Non	1

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	11
Non	1

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	0	+1	-4	-2	-6	10	2	12	-5
Rep	+4	+2	+6	-1	0	-1	11	6	17	+5
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	38	51
Republican	23	23	46
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
45	28	17

Analysis

This seems to me as a scenario that is the most fair to the Democrats. In all honesty, the Democratic brand is in no way as toxic as the GOP brand was in 2006. By 2012 it easily could be, but in 2010 the Democratic Party still has enough capital to hold onto such seats as Illinois, New York, Indiana, Wisconsin and California.

In North Carolina, the ever underwhelming Senator Richard Burr (Republican) is far too weak for a year that looks so good for the GOP in the South. North Carolina may well be the only Democratic senate pick-up this year.

And that's the way it is.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	28/37	17/37	45/74	60.8%	4	229	306	T	456
2010 Governor	32/37	17/37	49/74	66.2%	2	261	179	T	312
2004 President	40/56	5/56	45/112	40.2%	5	260	1970		1,994
Aggregate Predictions	100/130	39/130	139/260	53.5%

User Info

PaulB Forum Profile

Links

	Senatorial Predictions - Most Recent
	Senatorial Predictions - Most Recent Comments
	Senatorial Predictions Home

Back to 2010 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home