Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-31 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	28
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	25
Ind	0
Tos	4
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-5	-10	7	2	9	-10
Rep	+5	+5	+10	0	0	0	10	8	18	+10
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	9	38	47
Republican	28	23	51
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
38	32	6

Analysis

In Alaska, I see Murkowski winning by a small margin.
Washington and California are still tossups, but if there's a wave coming in from the East Coast and its evident from the very early returns, they could end up in the "R" column.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	31/35	15/35	46/70	65.7%	2	19	362	T	483
2016 President	50/56	33/56	83/112	74.1%	2	52	114	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	17/34	49/68	72.1%	1	64	120	T	362
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	221	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	10/36	45/72	62.5%	2	21	282	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	1	21	123	T	300
2012 President	50/56	37/56	87/112	77.7%	1	350	561	T	760
2010 Senate	32/37	6/37	38/74	51.4%	4	2	408	T	456
2010 Governor	23/37	8/37	31/74	41.9%	1	47	290	T	312
2006 U.S. Senate	23/33	10/33	33/66	50.0%	2	122	445	T	465
2006 Governor	22/36	12/36	34/72	47.2%	1	122	297	T	312
2004 President	48/56	31/56	79/112	70.5%	1	10	1285	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	378/455	197/455	575/910	63.2%