PredictionsEndorse2012 Senatorial Predictions - BushCountry (I-IN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-07 Version:51

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Tos8
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+2+3-1-2-3144180
Rep+1+2+3-1-3-4516-1
Ind0+1+1000101+1


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic213051
Republican103747
Independent202
pie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 65

Hang on! GOP closes closer is razor wire Senate contest.


Version: 64

One week out and the Senate is poised to stay in Democratic hands, although only barely. Still, with enough seats in play to make Republican control possible, with this close a margin. In particular, in Missouri MsCaskill continues to lead Akin, however the incumbent is still below 50% in many polls and she hasn't pulled away from Akin in the state the Romney will likely carry by a comfortable margin. And in Montana, Tester is locked in a very close race in a state that Romney is also likely to carry by at least a few points. Tester and McCaskill are looking for a number of cross over votes at the finish.


Version: 63

Senate is all tied up.


Version: 62

GOP has regained some ground now. King (I-Maine) will be tie breaking senator.


Version: 56

Democats continuing to move forward on the Senate map.


Version: 55

In a stunning reversal. Democrats have turned the tables on the GOP completely, picking at least one seat. Democrats have absolutely made the most of a bad hand and performed superlatively, with good campaigns, candidates, and a successful marshalling of resources, including an effective utilization of SuperPACs.


Version: 52

Democrats have really beaten back to parity this cycle, after being down as many as five or six seats at certain points in the cycle. However, this map understates Republican gains. I predict McMahon will upset Murphy in Connecticut. It should be counted as a gain for the GOP. GOP net one seat. Democrats lose a seat. Independants stay even (really two Democrat seats).


Version: 48

Senate Shocker! For first time this cycle, Democrats pickup seats. Heading for rout, with Obama cruising at top of ticket.


Version: 47

Democrats have really turned the tables this cycle. Starting with a weak hand and lots of turf to defend, they esentially break even and staunch all losses. A huge coup if this hold up. One month to go.


Version: 33

It's over for Akin in Missouri.


Version: 18

Democrats sink even further, reaching their nadir for the year.


Version: 16

Democrats reach their nadir for the year.


Version: 1

Republicans win back Senate if Romney elected president.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 245
P 2023 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 6 2 74T115
P 2022 Senate 35/35 28/35 63/70 90.0% pie 49 1 16T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 49 1 23T272
P 2020 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 111 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 65 4 66T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 19 21 51T293
P 2019 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 10 130T192
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T372
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T300
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T106
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T103
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T312
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 816/884 586/884 1402/1768 79.3% pie



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