Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-11 Version:20

Prediction Map

tmthforu94 Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

tmthforu94 Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	12
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	7
Ind	2
Tos	10
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	0	+1	-2	-2	-4	13	4	17	-3
Rep	+2	+2	+4	-1	-1	-2	5	3	8	+2
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	30	49
Republican	12	37	49
Independent	2	0	2

pie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2012-10-11 @ 01:18:34
Okay, I'll be the first to call it, so then I can say "told ya so" later on...Tom Smith will win Pennsylvania.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-10-11 @ 14:26:03
Pretty Bold, he has been closing some of the polling gap so on paper its starting to look more possible. Perhaps the Casey name is not as strong as it once was? I still predict a Casey victory but we'll see.

By: KS21 (I-KS) 2012-10-11 @ 19:41:34
If Casey cannot win, I'll be amazed. He's socially conservative for a Democrat, and he's led most of the way so far. My best guess is that this race will be like Michigan- looks competetive for the moment, and then goes back to what it was before. However, Smith's rapid rise is unnerving...

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%						243
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%		1	27	1	T	115
2022 Senate	31/35	22/35	53/70	75.7%		9	1	224	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	28/36	62/72	86.1%		8	1	23	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%		3	6	1	T	118
2020 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%		13	6	74	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%		10	4	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%		6	6	10	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%		4	10	130	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%		17	1	132	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%		16	3	6	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%		2	3	40	T	149
2016 President	50/56	35/56	85/112	75.9%		18	1	66	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	20/34	51/68	75.0%		16	1	60	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	7/12	18/24	75.0%		14	1	3	T	279
2015 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%		2	10	3	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%		22	0	4	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	18/36	47/72	65.3%		19	0	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%		3	13	17	T	153
2012 President	53/56	39/56	92/112	82.1%		62	1	435	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%		26	1	164	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%		14	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	22/52	65/104	62.5%		43	-	22	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%		14	1	37	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%		128	1	34	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	25/37	58/74	78.4%		114	1	74	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%		18	1	1	T	103
2008 President	49/56	36/56	85/112	75.9%		67	1	357	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%		23	1	96	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%		16	1	86	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	696/765	487/765	1183/1530	77.3%

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