Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-11 Version:55

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	23
Rep	8
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	10
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+2	+2	0	-1	-1	15	5	20	+1
Rep	0	+1	+1	0	-3	-3	6	1	7	-2
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	23	30	53
Republican	8	37	45
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

In a stunning reversal. Democrats have turned the tables on the GOP completely, picking at least one seat. Democrats have absolutely made the most of a bad hand and performed superlatively, with good campaigns, candidates, and a successful marshalling of resources, including an effective utilization of SuperPACs.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-10-11 @ 09:45:08
As you can see by looking at the trendlines,this race for U.S. Senate overall has seen dramatic reversals between the two parties. Where now the Democrats stand to actually pickup a seat, the GOP during the summer was on track for a five to six seat pikcup and control of the Senate. Note also the unsual amount of competitive races this cycle, something that has actually worked to the advantage of the Democrats. Again, whereas Democrats fretted, wrongfully in my opinion, about being outspent in a post Citizen's United world, in actually they have had more than enough resources to go toe to toe in a very effective manner.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-10-11 @ 09:45:35
Again, for the umpteenth time, would the webmaster please fix Connecticut?

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-10-11 @ 14:24:01
Hey BC, Living in Indiana, I wanted to get your thoughts on the senate race there. Obviously you are predicting Donnelly on this version just wanted a summary of what its like on the ground there.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-10-11 @ 15:54:20
It's really hard to say. For a number of people who for thirty years reflexively voted for Richard Lugar, there's a new choice on the menu. Donnelly is trying to portray himself as a conservative Democrat in the Evan Bayh mold, a successful formula...at least for Bayh. Mourdock is trying in ads to tie Donnelly to Obama and Harry Reid. Plenty of outside ads by other groups. I see slightly more Mourdock stickers and yard signs, but I live in an admittedly more Republican part of the state. Lots and lots of undecideds. Obama had no chance to carry Indiana this time around and isn't bothering in the state, perhaps in an effort not hurt the very real chance that Donnelly can win. Mourdock has got to pray for coattails. He neither as effective a candidate or as well known as he would like, and he is runnin an explicitly right-wing campaign. He does have a number of devoted and fervent volunteers and supporters.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-10-11 @ 15:57:22
Bottom line is this race is close, and as close to a pure toss-up as there is the cycle, and as I noted above this is one of the more wide open Senate cycles I have seen. Democrats twelve months ago couldn't have forseen this a a pick up chance, but there you have it.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-10-12 @ 13:46:50
Thanks for all that. Its always good to here the local perspective on these races. So much analysis on many senate races come from outside media etc. The polling certaintly backs up what you have said. Ive read some articles that echo it as well. I think Donnelly will need a big turn out in key area's too, and as stated Obama is a drag but there are many issues re: Mourdocks positions that may cancel that drag out....we shall see. Thanks.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	6	2	74	T	115
2022 Senate	35/35	28/35	63/70	90.0%	49	1	16	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	49	1	23	T	272
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	111	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	65	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	19	21	51	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	10	130	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	46	4	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	45	6	226	T	372
2016 President	51/56	38/56	89/112	79.5%	63	1	17	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	24/34	56/68	82.4%	55	1	1		362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	25	1	25	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	26/36	59/72	81.9%	34	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	31	0	123	T	300
2012 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	157	0	401	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	20/33	50/66	75.8%	66	0	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	21	0	5	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	42/52	18/52	60/104	57.7%	105	-	41	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	5	0	37	T	106
2010 Senate	35/37	26/37	61/74	82.4%	93	2	34	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	94	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	1	1	T	103
2008 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	183	1	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	101	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	43	1	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	8	2	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%	94	1	46	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%	103	1	22	T	312
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	140	2	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	816/884	586/884	1402/1768	79.3%