PredictionsEndorse2012 Senatorial Predictions - hoshie (D-NC) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-03 Version:6

Prediction Map
hoshie MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
hoshie MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Tos7
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+2+30-2-215419+1
Rep0+2+2-1-2-3527-1
Ind0+1+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic223052
Republican93746
Independent202
pie

Analysis

The momentum seems to be with Tester in MT, it seems the Dems could really win IN.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 5

In IN, it seems the GOP candidates comments on rape have passed over for the most part. Like TX, he could be an annoying Tea Party candidate who could win. The Dems no longer have momentum in AZ.


Version: 4

The GOP has the monmentum in IN and the Dems in WI. It seems possible the Dems could win AZ if the polls are right.


Version: 3

AZ and ND now appear to be tossups now. I still see the GOP winning these anyway.


Version: 2

It seems the Tea Party candidate in IN could be annoying enough people to help the Dems win. ND seems to be getting tighter than I thought.


Version: 1

Here's my take on the Senate:

MT: Tester's win in 06 was in my mind, a fluke due to the corruption of the incumbent and a Democratic wave. Neither of these are present this year.

MO: This should be a winnable race for the GOP, but Akin blew it with his comments on rape. He has no chance now.

MA: While Scott Brown is a nice guy, I see that Massachusetts will return to the fold. This depends on who's turnout is better.

WI: With the failure of the Walker recall, I feel the GOP has a very good shot at this seat.

IN and TX: While the GOP nominated Tea Party guys who will more than likely annoy some of electorate, The state's history of electing Republicans will cause them to win.

AZ: Richard Carmona has made this an interesting race, but I don't see him winning.

NE: While Bob Kerrey is a good guy, the fact that he has not lived in the state for many years will hurt him.

ME: The only contest in Maine is which party Angus King will caucus with next year.

VA: This is close and it will depend on whose GOTV operation is better. Furthermore, Allen has a past and that could help push Kaine to victory.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2014 Senate 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 6 9 99T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 1 1 73T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 1 17T153
P 2012 President 55/56 41/56 96/112 85.7% pie 3 14 265T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 3 94T343
P 2010 Senate 34/37 14/37 48/74 64.9% pie 3 2 265T456
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 19 56T103
P 2008 President 52/56 31/56 83/112 74.1% pie 1 6 404T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 6 117T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 6 86T264
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 31 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 15/33 48/66 72.7% pie 4 3 207T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 2 0 93T312
P 2004 President 54/56 20/56 74/112 66.1% pie 6 1 1527T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 409/430 225/430 634/860 73.7% pie



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