PredictionsEndorse2012 Senatorial Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:6

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep12
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem14
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Tos9
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+1+2-1-3-414317-2
Rep+1+3+4-1-1-2538+2
Ind0+1+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic193049
Republican123749
Independent202
pie

Analysis

Final Map

Maine: King (I but really D)
Massachusetts: Warren (D)
Vermont: Sanders (I but really D)
New York: Gillibrand (D)
Connecticut: Murphy (D)
Rhode Island: Whitehouse (D)
New Jersey: Menendez (D)
Pennsylvania: Casey (D)
Delaware: Carper (D)
Maryland: Cardin (D)
West Virginia: Manchin (D)
Virginia: Allen (R)
Florida: Nelson (D)
Ohio: Brown (D)
Michigan: Stabenow (D)
Indiana: Mourdock (R)
Tennessee: Corker (R)
Mississippi: Wicker (R)
Wisconsin: Baldwin (D)
Minnesota: Klobuchar (D)
Missouri: McCaskill (D)
Texas: Cruz (R)
Nebraska: Fischer (R)
North Dakota: Berg (R)
Montana: Rehberg (R)
Wyoming: Barrasso (R)
Utah: Hatch (R)
New Mexico: Heinrich (D)
Arizona: Flake (R)
Nevada: Heller (R)
Washington: Cantwell (D)
California: Feinstein (D)
Hawaii: Hirono (D)

Total Count: 51 Democrat, 49 Republican

House of Representative: 239 Republican, 196 Democrat


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 5

Updated.


Version: 4

The most likely path back to a Republican controlled Senate in the wake of the Akin debacle. Of course if Akin would drop out then the unpopular McCaskill would be quiet vulnerable. As it stands she'll coast to reelection in November.

Still there is a chance. Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska provide the best pick up opportunities. With Missouri now off the table Virginia becomes the important pick up point. Florida would be next likely after that. This of course assumes King in Maine sides with the Democrat, which of course he will.

Far far outside chances would rely on surprise wins in either Hawaii, New Mexico, or Michigan. All three of which are highly unlikely.


Version: 3

Updated


Version: 2

This is my second rough draft map for the senate races. I'll make a more detailed version once we start to narrow down who the actual candidates are and see some better polling data.


Version: 1

My first pass through the Senatorial races. Based mostly on what little polling data we have and some gut feelings. I'll go through a do a more detailed map version later on.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie



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