Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:5

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	18
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	9
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	13
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-5	-4	-9	10	2	12	-8
Rep	+5	+4	+9	0	-1	-1	6	3	9	+8
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	13	30	43
Republican	18	37	55
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Here it is. Final map update.

Changes favoring the GOP: FL and PA from Dem to GOP; PA from leans Dem to toss-up GOP.

Changes favoring the Dems: CT from GOP to Dems; MT and IN from lean GOP to toss-up GOP; ME from toss-up Ind. (Dem) to leans Ind. (Dem).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Gave MO, MI, and FL to the Dems. Updated confidence and margins.

Version: 3

Gave CT and MO to the GOP. Updated confidence and margins.

Version: 2

Gave MI to the GOP and MO to the Dems. Adjusted confidence and margins. I figure Akin will be pushed out over the course of the next month, which would strongly move MO back the GOP. But if he stays the nominee, McCaskill will have a slight edge to win, notwithstanding that syphilis is more popular than she is in MO.

Version: 1

Blowout. NE and ND are gone for the Dems. VA, WI, MO, and MT are getting there. OH and VA are tilting slightly. NM and HI are within reach. And MI, WV, PA, NJ, and CT are states to watch. ME is the only state I think the GOP will lose, but maybe not. NV and MA will be holds. Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	1	2	108	T	115
2022 Senate	30/35	22/35	52/70	74.3%	7	1	243	T	305
2022 Governor	30/36	21/36	51/72	70.8%	7	1	228	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	7	1	T	118
2020 President	46/56	30/56	76/112	67.9%	5	6	655	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	23/35	54/70	77.1%	4	4	101	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	3	6	211	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	3	14	T	192
2018 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	8	0	106	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	29/36	61/72	84.7%	7	2	6	T	372
2017 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	2	98	T	149
2016 President	52/56	33/56	85/112	75.9%	8	0	66	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	20/34	51/68	75.0%	6	0	60	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	8/12	18/24	75.0%	6	0	3	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	4	1	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	16	0	4	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	20/36	51/72	70.8%	16	0	22	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	4	1	1	T	153
2012 President	47/56	29/56	76/112	67.9%	11	1	702	T	760
2012 Senate	23/33	10/33	33/66	50.0%	5	1	319	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	4/11	13/22	59.1%	4	1	179	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	20/52	63/104	60.6%	25	-	27	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	2/4	6/8	75.0%	2	34	12	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	24/37	57/74	77.0%	20	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	20	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	10	1	T	103
2008 President	45/56	28/56	73/112	65.2%	21	0	791	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	22/33	52/66	78.8%	9	0	81	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	9	0	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	39/52	25/52	64/104	61.5%	15	-	33		271
2008 Rep Primary	41/49	22/49	63/98	64.3%	14	-	7	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	51	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	21/33	51/66	77.3%	9	1	133	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	23/36	59/72	81.9%	9	1	36	T	312
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	18	1	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	860/994	582/994	1442/1988	72.5%