Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:22

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	7
Ind	2
Tos	6
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+2	+3	0	-2	-2	15	4	19	+1
Rep	0	+2	+2	-1	-2	-3	5	2	7	-1
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	30	52
Republican	9	37	46
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Here's all the changes for my final prediction.

Arizona: Tossup R -> Lean R
Connecticut: Tossup D -> Lean D
Delaware: 50% D -> 60% D
Indiana: 40% D -> 50% D
Maine: 40% I -> 50% I
Mississippi: 60% R -> 50% R
Montana: 40% R -> 40% D
Nebraska: Strong R -> Lean R
New Mexico: Strong D -> Lean D
North Dakota remains 50% R only because there are only two candidates
Texas: 60% R -> 50% R (would remain 60 if no third party)
Utah: 70% R -> 60% R (would remain 70 if no third party)
Wyoming: 60% R -> 70% R

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	52/56	32/56	84/112	75.0%	12	5	575	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	17/35	47/70	67.1%	1	24	358	T	423
2018 Senate	29/35	17/35	46/70	65.7%	1	356	362	T	483
2016 President	50/56	28/56	78/112	69.6%	14	10	325	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	19/34	49/68	72.1%	1	73	120	T	362
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	19	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	48	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	26/33	58/66	87.9%	22	0	2	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	2	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	36/52	13/52	49/104	47.1%	18	-	75	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	28/37	62/74	83.8%	2	3	21	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	29/37	62/74	83.8%	1	3	17	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	137	92	T	103
2008 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	79	1	100	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	28/33	61/66	92.4%	17	2	2		465
2006 Governor	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	16	2	6	T	312
2004 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	47	1	66	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	568/627	396/627	964/1254	76.9%