Not much changed from the last map. I see almost no way that the Republicans could gain enough seats to regain the Senate: perhaps if the polls are misreading the races in Indiana and Missouri, where individuals may feel ashamed to admit a vote for Akin or Mourdock, there could be enough upsets for the Republicans to win, but I don't expect this to happen.

Montana: This is unquestionably my least confident state. Montana tends to have a Republican lean most years, but it also has a notable moderate streak, something that works well for Tester. The fact that he isn't hitting 50% in any of the polling there worries me, but his lead has looked fairly consistent of late.