Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-09-25 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	23
Rep	8
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	2
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	0	+2	0	-1	-1	15	5	20	+1
Rep	0	+1	+1	-2	-1	-3	4	3	7	-2
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	23	30	53
Republican	8	37	45
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

I didn't put too much thought into the percentages for non-competitive states.

Ultimately I think that it will be a Democratic mini-wave, although not quite a large enough wave to net victories in Arizona or Indiana. Missouri might be in that category as well if not for Akin's comments.

Massachusetts is just too Democratic to re-elect Brown except in a good Republican year. Same with Connecticut, to a lesser extent. Democrats have better candidates in Virginia, North Dakota, and Montana (as well as Ohio and Florida).

The Obama/Reid turnout operation carries the Democrats to a win in Nevada. A good Democratic year boosts Baldwin to victory.

Nebraska, Hawaii, and to a lesser extent New Mexico never really stood a chance at being competitive so long as the party with the upper hand ran a decent campaign.

King caucuses with the Democrats, giving them 55 senators...just enough to survive until 2016 with a majority (unless it's a wave election).

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	4	131	179	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	24/35	54/70	77.1%	2	159	101	T	423
2016 President	48/56	23/56	71/112	63.4%	3	222	552	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	2	222	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	7/12	16/24	66.7%	2	375	25	T	279
2014 Senate	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	5	243	273	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	13/36	39/72	54.2%	4	214	253	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	158	17	T	153
2012 President	55/56	44/56	99/112	88.4%	1	54	146	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	18/33	49/66	74.2%	1	42	128	T	343
2010 Senate	26/37	15/37	41/74	55.4%	2	201	375	T	456
2010 Governor	28/37	14/37	42/74	56.8%	1	353	230	T	312
2009 Governor	1/2	0/2	1/4	25.0%	1	100	92	T	103
2008 President	54/56	40/56	94/112	83.9%	13	152	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	16/33	48/66	72.7%	4	152	172	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	1	228	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	7/52	7/52	14/104	13.5%	1	-	216	T	271
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	97	58	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	476/587	305/587	781/1174	66.5%