PredictionsEndorse2012 Senatorial Predictions - Liberalrocks (D-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:48

Prediction Map
Liberalrocks MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Liberalrocks MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem24
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind2
 
Tos5
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+2+40-1-115520+3
Rep0+1+1-2-2-4426-3
Ind0+1+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic243054
Republican73744
Independent202
pie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-11-06 @ 01:49:44 prediction Map
My final prediction, it may be too optimistic for democratic prospects but I feel this could be the year for some wild upsets and republicans have not nominated the best candidates in certain red states. MT ND..they could produce two upsets, if not its likely the states are voting in their traditional partisan form.

Nevada: here I feel Berkley could narrowly ride democratic coattails to victory...we shall see. Early voting has been most strong in Clark county an area she needs to trounce Heller in to win. If not Heller wins as most predict.

Last Edit: 2012-11-06 @ 01:53:14

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2012-11-06 @ 07:47:18 prediction Map
If Harry Reid's machine is as brutal this cycle as it was in 2010, Berkley should make it...

 By: Atheist2006 (D-OK) 2012-11-10 @ 16:29:48 prediction Map
Nice. Only one mistake. And you even got Wyoming and Washington right.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-11-10 @ 17:41:54 prediction Map
Thanks, yeah Berkley did come within 1pt of victory. She had her own "issues" in that race, that would have been a winnable seat otherwise. I just took a chance on that prediction. I had felt much better about Mt and ND as I knew the Democrats in those races ran very strong campaigns in red states.

Over all as a Democrat I certainty can't complain about the results here. Months back we would not have thought of actually gaining a seat as we simply were attempting to hold the chamber.

Last Edit: 2012-11-10 @ 17:43:05


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 30/35 17/35 47/70 67.1% pie 5 0 334T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 25/36 58/72 80.6% pie 3 2 56T372
P 2016 President 48/56 29/56 77/112 68.8% pie 14 0 369T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 17/34 47/68 69.1% pie 7 0 213T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 6/12 15/24 62.5% pie 5 0 47T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 24/36 57/72 79.2% pie 60 0 82T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 17/36 46/72 63.9% pie 53 0 123T300
P 2012 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 97 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 48 0 40T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 12 0 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 44/52 26/52 70/104 67.3% pie 67 - 5T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 71 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 44 5 106T312
P 2008 President 51/56 42/56 93/112 83.0% pie 53 1 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 15/33 46/66 69.7% pie 4 24 227T407
P 2008 Governor 8/11 5/11 13/22 59.1% pie 2 17 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 49/52 18/52 67/104 64.4% pie 24 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 33/49 16/49 49/98 50.0% pie 7 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 595/672 378/672 973/1344 72.4% pie



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