Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-03 Version:8

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	7
Ind	2
Tos	10
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+2	+3	0	-3	-3	15	3	18	0
Rep	0	+3	+3	-1	-2	-3	5	2	7	0
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	30	51
Republican	10	37	47
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

I think there will be a number of surprises on election night and one of them in my mind will be Wisconsin senate race where THompson pulls off a narrow victory just as Tester narrowly escapes in Montana, but my real race to watch is ND and will the Dem eek out a nail biter?

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-03 @ 04:08:31
FInal result no change- 53-47 which will cost McConnell his job as senate minority leader in my mind as GOP scramboles to pick up the senate pieces...

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-11-12 @ 17:28:26
Even worse then my prediction Dems plus 2 and McConnell may keep his job...maybe

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

Links

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