Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-29 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	15
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	8
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-2	-4	-6	13	2	15	-5
Rep	+2	+4	+6	0	-1	-1	6	3	9	+5
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	16	30	46
Republican	15	37	52
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

A bit optimistic for Republicans, but think a mild wave will push Mourdock, Akin, Allen, Thompson over the finish line. Don't think it's enough for Mack, Smith, or Mandel.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	49/56	38/56	87/112	77.7%	3	8	561	T	760
2012 Senate	26/33	16/33	42/66	63.6%	3	8	237	T	343
2012 Governor	8/11	6/11	14/22	63.6%	1	132	157	T	228
2011 Governor	2/4	0/4	2/8	25.0%	1	158	100	T	106
2010 Senate	30/37	11/37	41/74	55.4%	3	154	375	T	456
2008 President	50/56	34/56	84/112	75.0%	6	2	382	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	30/52	0/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	150	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	30/49	3/49	33/98	33.7%	1	-	113	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	225/298	108/298	333/596	55.9%