Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-09-29 Version:27

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	7
Ind	2
Tos	7
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	-1	-2	-3	14	4	18	-1
Rep	+1	+2	+3	-1	-2	-3	5	2	7	0
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	30	51
Republican	10	37	47
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Democrats score a landslide victory in
VT(Sanders-I)31D
NY(Gillibrand-D)32D
DE(Carper-D)33D
MD(Cardin-D)34D
RI(Whitehouse-D)35D
CA(Feinstein-D)36D
WV(Manchin-D)37D
MN(Klobuchar-D)38D
Republicans score a landslide victory in
WY(Barrasso-R)38R
TN(Corker-R)39R
MS(Wicker-R)40R
UT(Hatch-R)41R

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-09-29 @ 13:37:26
2012 US Senate Races- Competitive but Democrats win by a double digit margin. HI(Hirono-D)39D WA(Cantwell-D)40D MI(Stabenow-D)41D NJ(Menendez-D)42D PA(Casey-D)43D ME(King-I)44D Competive but Republicans wins by a double digit margin. NE(Fischer-R)42R TX(Cruz-R)43R

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-09-29 @ 13:43:48
2012 US Senate Race- Competitive but Democrats win by a high single digit margin. FL(Nelson-D)45D NM(Heinrich-D)46D OH(Brown-D)47D MO(McCaskill-D)48D WI(Baldwin-D)49D 2012 US Senate Race- Competitive but Republicans win by a high single digit margin. AZ(Flake-R)44R ND(Berg-R)45R

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-09-29 @ 13:46:58
2012 US Senate Race- Democrats narrowly win VA(Kaine-D)50D CT(Murphy-D)51D MA(Warren-D)52D 2012 US Senate Race- Republicans narrowly win NV(Heller-R)46R MT(Rehberg-R)47R No Clear Favorite IN(Donnelly-D vs Mourdock-R)

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-18 @ 14:04:05
2012 US Senate Election Democrats won 31)CA(Feinstein-D) 32)DE(Carper-D) 33)MI(Stabenow-D) 34)WA(Cantwell-D) 35)FL(Nelson-D) 36)NJ(Menendez-D) 37)VT(Sanders-I) 38)MN(Klobuchar-D) 39)RI(Whitehouse-D) 40)MD(Cardin-D) 41)MO(Klobuchar-D) 42)PA(Casey-D) 43)OH(Brown-D) 44)MT(Tester-D) 45)NY(Gillibrand-D) 46)WV(Manchin-D) 47)ME(King-I) 48)HI(Hirino-D) 49)CT(Murphy-D) 50)MA(Warren-D) 51)WI(Baldwin-D) 52)IN(Donnelly-D) 53)NM(Heinrich-D) 54)VA(Kaine-D) 55)ND(Heitkamp-D) Republicans won 38)UT(Hatch-R) 39)TN(Corker-R) 40)WY(Barrasso-R) 41)MS(Wicker-R) 42)NV(Heller-R) 43)NE(Fischer-R) 44)TX(Cruz-R) 45)AZ(Flake-R)

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-29 @ 14:43:13
2014 US Senate Election Solid Republican AL(Sessions-R)33R GA(Chambliss-R or Teabagger-R)34R ID(Risch-R)35R KS(Roberts-R)36R MS(Cochran-R)37R NE(Johanns-R)38R OK(Inhofe-R)39R SC(Graham-R or Teabagger-R)40R TN(Alexander-R)41R TX(Cornyn-R)42R WY(Enzi-R)43R Likely Republican KY(McConnell-R)if Lundergan-Grimes-D or Edelen-D run. 44R ME(Collins-R)-only if she is the Republican nominee- If Collins-R retires- Likely Democratic. Collins-R vs Sumners-R primary matchup would be worthwatching. Dill-D is the ME version of Coons(D-DE). Tossup/Lean Republican SD(Johnson-D) Johnson-D vs Rounds-R(Tossup) Herseth-D vs Rounds-R(Lean Republican)46R WV(Rockefeller-D) Rockefeller-D vs Capito-R(Tossup) Tennant-D vs Capito-R(Lean Republican)47R AK(Begich-D) Begich-D vs Miller-R(Lean Democratic) Begich-D vs Treadwell-R(Tossup)48R NC(Hagan-D) Hagan-D vs Thillis-R(Lean Democratic) Republicans win seat in a wave.49R AR(Pryor-D) Pryor-D vs Griffin-R(Lean Democratic) Pryor-D has strong roots in AR due to his father. 36D LA(Landrieu-D) Landrieu-D vs Cassidy-R(Lean Democratic) Landrieu-D survived tough races in 1996,2002,and 2008 against top tier GOP challengers. 37D Lean/Likely Democratic CO(Udall-D) Republicans will end up nominating Norton-R.38D IA(Harkin-D) Latham-R is a stronger general election candidate than King-R but King-R wins the primary. In case of a retirement- Democrats could ask Vilsack-D or Braley-D to run. 39D MN(Franken-D) Coleman-R is the most electable but Bachmann-R is most electable in the primary. Both lose to Franken-D. 40D NH(Shaheen-D) The Republicans have Sununu Jr or Bass-R. Both will lose to Shaheen-D. 41D OR(Merkley-D) The only credible Republican is House Speaker Bruce Hanna-R. 42D Last Edit: 2012-11-29 @ 15:15:50

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-29 @ 15:38:13
2014 US Senate Election Likely Democratic NJ(OPEN-Lautenberg-D) Senator Elect Booker-D Booker-D can run for Governor in 2013-narrowly lose to Christie-R. get elected to the US Senate in 2014,run for Governor in 2017-get elected. 43D VA(Warner-D) The only Republican that will make the race interesting is McDonnell-R but Warner-D will recieve over 60 percent of the popular vote.44D Solid Democratic DE(Coons-D)45D IL(Durbin-D) OPEN Seat scenario. (Simon-D vs Walsh-R)46D MA(Kerry-D) If Kerry-D becomes Secretary of State. Look for a Special Election US Senate Race between Brown-R vs Capuano-D, If Brown-R wins, look for him to face a challenge from Patrick-D. 47D MI(Levin-D) Assuming Levin-D retires. Democrats will nominate Peters-D, Republicans will nominate Miller-R. Race will be somewhere between a Tossup/Lean Democratic.48D MT(Baucus-D) The strongest Republican in that race is Racicot-R-but he has not ran for any elected office since 1996. 49D NM(Udall-D)50D RI(Reed-D)51D Democrats will keep the US Senate in 2014.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-29 @ 16:14:41
2016 US Senate Election. Solid Democratic CT(Blumenthal-D)42D HI(Inouye-D or OPEN-D)43D MD(Mikulski-D or OPEN-D)44D NY(Schumer-D)45D OR(Wyden-D)46D VT(Leahy-D)47D Likely Democratic CA(Boxer-D)48D WA(Murray-D)49D Lean Democratic CO(Bennet-D)50D NV(Reid-D)51D could Joe Heck-R be the giant killer. Tossup/Lean Democratic IL(Kirk-R) First Lady Obama-D to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel-D. 52D Tossup/Lean Republican PA(Toomey-R)26R WI(Johnson-R)27R Likely Republican. AZ(McCain-R or OPEN-R)28R GA(Isakson-R or OPEN-R)29R IN(Coats-R or OPEN-R)30R IA(Grassley-R or OPEN-R)31R KY(Paul-R)32R MO(Blunt-R)-only if Nixon-D runs.33R NH(Ayotte-R)only if Hassan-D runs.34R NC(Burr-R)-only if McIntyre-D runs.35R OH(Portman-R)-only if Tim Ryan-D runs.36R Solid Republican AL(Shelby-R or OPEN-R)37R AK(Murkowski-R)38R AR(Boozman-R)39R FL(Rubio-R)40R ID(Crapo-R)41R KS(Moran-R)42R LA(Vitter-R)43R ND(Hoeven-R)44R OK(OPEN-Coburn-R)45R SC(DeMint-R)46R SD(Thune-R)47R UT(Lee-R)48R

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-29 @ 17:14:51
2018 US Senate Election. Solid Republican MS(Wicker-R)41R NE(Fischer-R)42R TN(Corker-R) 43R TX(Cruz-R) 44R UT(Hatch-R or OPEN-R)45R WY(Barrasso-R)46R. Tossup/Lean Republican AZ(Flake-R)47R NV(Heller-R)48R Tossup/Lean Democratic. ND(Heitkamp-D)49R only if Cramer-R runs. MT(Tester-D)50R only if Daines-R runs. A Republican in the White House- Republicans have control of the US Senate. Lean/Likely Democratic. FL(Nelson-D)28D IN(Donnelly-D)29D MO(McCaskill-D)30D NM(Heinrich-D)-race only becomes competive if Martinez-R runs.31D OH(Brown-D)32D PA(Casey-D)33D VA(Kaine-D)-race only becomes competitive if outgoing Governor Cuccenelli-R runs-assumes he wins the Governors race in 2013.34D WV(Manchin-D)only if McKinley-R runs.35D WI(Baldwin-D)36D Likely/Solid Democratic CA(OPEN-Feinstein-D)37D CT(Murphy-D)38D DE(Carper-D)39D HI(Hirino-D)40D ME(King-I)41D MD(Cardin-D)42D MA(Warren-D)43D MI(Stabenow-D)44D MN(Klobuchar-D)45D NJ(Menendez-D)46D NY(Gillibrand-D)47D RI(Whitehouse-D)48D VT(Sanders-D)49D WA(Cantwell-D)50D

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-11-29 @ 17:23:54
2020 US Senate Election. The most vulnerable Democratic US Senate seats are going to be AR(Pryor-D) and LA(Landrieu-D) Democrats will hold onto MT(assuming Baucus-D retires)-Bullock-D. 2022 US Senate Election. The most vulnerable Democratic US Senate seats are going to be CO(Bennet-D) and NV(OPEN-Reid-D)

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-02 @ 14:19:45
2014 US Senate Election(Democratic Held Seats) Tossup to Lean Republican Takeover 1)SD(Johnson-D vs Rounds-R)Possible Retirement. Herseth-D vs Rounds-R. 2)WV(Rockefeller-D vs Capito-R)Possible Retirement. Tenant-D vs Capito-R. 3)LA(Landrieu-D vs ??????-R)Republicans control every Statewide Elected Office. Republicans will target Landrieu-D in order to make Obama's life more difficult.-The only thing that saves Landrieu-D is higher turnout among minority voters in the New Orleans Area and the Republican challengers doing a Mourdock/Akin.-but the State did re-elect Vitter. Tossup/Lean Democratic Retention 4)AK(Begich-D vs ????-R))-The top tier GOP callengers are Palin-R,Parnell-R,Treadwell-R,Leman-R or Miller-R. Begich-D will narrowly defeat any of those GOP challengers. 5)NC(Hagan-D vs ????-R)-will face 2nd or 3rd tier GOP challengers. State is turning purple. 6)AR(Pryor-D vs ????-R)-will face 2nd or 3rd tier GOP challengers. Pryor name in AR is very popular. Lean/Likely Democratic 7)CO(Udall-D vs ???-R) 8)NH(Shaheen-D vs ???-R) 9)MN(Franken-D vs ???-R) Democratic incumbents will face top tier challengers but are likely to win by at least a high single digit margin. Likely/Safe-D 10)MI(Levin-D)-retirement. 11)NJ(Lautenberg-D)-retirement. 12)MA(Kerry-D)-cabinet appointment. OPEN Seats or Vacancies.- but Democrats are likely to hang onto both of those seats. 13)IA(Harkin-D vs King-R) 14)MT(Baucus-D vs Rehberg-R) 15)VA(Warner-D vs McDonnell-R) Baucus-MT and Warner-VA will escape from a tough GOP challenger. 16)NM(Udall-D) 17)OR(Merkley-D) 18)IL(Durbin-D) 19)DE(Coons-D) 20)RI(Reed-D) All of the Republican held US Senate Seats up for grabs in 2014 are likely to remain in the Republican collumn- unless Collins(ME)retires or faces a serious teaparty challenger. Chambliss(GA)loses in the primary.and Democrats nominate Jim Marshall-D, Top Tier Democratic nominee challenges McConnell(KY).

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-06 @ 13:40:43
2014 US Senate Election including Special Election in SC(resignation of DeMint-R) Republicans will hold onto AL(Sessions-R)32R GA(Chambliss-R)Republican Primary Winner-R.33R ID(Risch-R)34R KS(Roberts-R)35R KY(McConnell-R)36R ME(Collins-R)37R. MS(Cochran-R)38R NE(Johanns-R)39R OK(Inhofe-R)40R SC(Graham-R)Republican Primary winner 41R SC(VACANT-R)Republican Primary winner.42R TN(Alexander-R)43R TX(Cornyn-R)44R WY(Enzi-R)45R Republicans pick up SD(Rounds-R)Johnson-D retires. 46R WV(Capito-R)Rockefeller-D retires. 47R Red State Democratic US Senators favored to win re-election. AK(Begich-D)36D AR(Pryor-D)37D LA(Landrieu-D)38D MT(Baucus-D)39D NC(Hagan-D)40D Purple State Democratic US Senators favored to win re-election. CO(Udall-D)41D IA(Harkin-D)42D NH(Shaheen-D)43D VA(Warner-D)44D Weak Blue State Democratic US Senators favored to win re-election. MI(Levin-D)45D MN(Franken-D)46D NM(Udall-D)47D OR(Merkley-D)48D Solid Blue States. DE(Coons-D)49D IL(Durbin-D)50D MA(Kerry-D)51D NJ(OPEN-D)52D Democratic Primary winner. RI(Reed-D)53D

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-06 @ 19:45:59
Jim DeMint(R-SC) replacement should be someone that is in favor of the magic of Disney's Animatronics.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-07 @ 14:48:58
The Democratic Nominees for both SC US Senate Seat should be Inez Tennenbaum and Jim Hodges.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-07 @ 14:52:43
2016 IL US Senate Race. The Democratic Nominee for the 2016 IL US Senate Race is going to be the IL version of Chris Coons. Mark Kirk(R-IL) will face a tough primary challenge against either Bill Brady or Joe Walsh. who will then lose in the November General Election to whoever the Democrats nominate.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-09 @ 11:52:04
Freshman US Senators who will serve in the US Senate for more than 3 terms. 1)Baldwin(D-WI) wins re-election in 2018, 2024,2030,and 2036. 2)Murphy(D-CT) win re-election in 2018,2024,2030,2036,2042,and 2048. 3)Heinrich(D-NM) wins re-election in 2018,2024,2030,2036,2042,and 2048. 4)Kaine(D-VA) wins re-election in 2018,2024,2030,and 2036. 5)Hirino(D-HI) wins re-election in 2018 and 2024. 6)Warren(D-MA) wins re-election in 2018,and 2024, 7)Fischer(R-NE) wins re-election in 2018,2024,and 2030. The most vulnerable US Senators up for re-election are Donnelly(D-IN) and Heitkamp(D-ND). On the Republican side. It is Heller(R-NV) and to a greater extent Flake(R-AZ). Cruz(R-TX) and DeMint Replacement(R-SC) could be vulnerable in the next decade due to change in demographics.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-09 @ 14:34:12
Democrats will have a majority control of the US Senate until or past 2022. 2014. Democrats lose SD and WV. Hold onto AK,AR,CO,IA,LA,MI,MN,NH,and NC. Surprise victory is picking up GA,KY,ME,and both SC seats. 2016. Democrats hold onto CO and NV. Democrats pick up IL,PA,and WI. plus AZ(OPEN),IA(OPEN), FL,KY,MO,NH,and OH. 2018 Democrats are vulnerable in FL(if OPEN seat-but Republicans will end up nominating a rightwing nutcase,Democrats will nominate moderate to liberal Democrat like. Kathy Castor-D or Debbie Wasserman Schultz-D).-Democratic Retention. IN(Donnelly-D,will face US Reps Stutzman,Rokita,Buschon,or Young)Republican candidates will be out Mourdocking each other. Democratic Retention. MI(Stabenow-D vs Synder-R). Democratic retention. MO(McCaskill-D vs Wagner,Hartzler,Graves,or Long,)Republican candidates will be out Akining each other. Democratic Retention. MT(Tester-D vs Daines-R). Democratic Retention. NM(Heinrich-D vs Martinez-R). Democratic Retention. ND(Heitkamp-D vs Cramer-R). Tossup. OH(Brown-D vs Kasich-R). Democratic Retention. PA(Casey-D vs Cobert-R). Democratic Retention. VA(Kaine-D vs McDonnell-R). Democratic Retention. WI(Baldwin-D vs Walker-R). Democratic Retention. Democrats will be targeting NV and to a greater extent AZ.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-12-25 @ 12:35:34
US Senate Seniority List 1)Leahy(D-VT) 2)Hatch(R-UT) 3)Baucus(D-MT) 4)Cochran(R-MS) 5)Levin(D-MI) 6)Grassley(R-IA) 7)Harkin(D-IA) 8)McConnell(R-KY) 9)Rockefeller(D-WV) 10)Mikulski(D-MD) 11)Shelby(R-AL) 12)McCain(R-AZ) 13)Reid(D-NV) 14)Feinstein(D-CA) 15)Boxer(D-CA) 16)Murray(D-WA) 17)Inhofe(R-OK) 18)Wyden(D-OR) 19)Roberts(R-KS) 20)Durbin(D-IL) 21)Johnson(D-SD) 22)Reed(D-RI) 23)Sessions(R-AL) 24)Landrieu(D-LA) 25)Collins(R-ME) 26)Enzi(R-WY) 27)Schumer(D-NY) 28)Crapo(R-ID) 29)Nelson(D-FL) 30)Carper(D-DE) 31)Stabenow(D-MI) 32)Cantwell(D-WA) 33)Murkowski(R-AK) 34)Lautenberg(D-NJ) 35)Chambliss(R-GA) 36)Graham(R-SC) 37)Alexander(R-TN) 38)Cornyn(R-TX) 39)Pryor(D-AR) 40)Burr(R-NC) 41)Coburn(R-OK) 42)Thune(R-SD) 43)Isakson(R-GA) 44)Vitter(R-LA) 45)Menendez(D-NJ) 46)Cardin(D-MD) 47)Sanders(I-VT) 48)Brown(D-OH) 49)Casey(D-PA) 50)Corker(R-TN) 51)McCaskill(D-MO) 52)Klobuchar(D-MN) 53)Whitehouse(D-RI) 54)Tester(D-MT) 55)Barrasso(R-WY) 56)Wicker(R-MS) 57)Udall(D-CO) 58)Udall(D-NM) 59)Johanns(R-NE) 60)Shaheen(D-NH) 61)Warner(D-VA) 62)Risch(R-ID) 63)Hagan(R-NC) 64)Franken(D-MN) 65)Merkley(D-OR) 66)Begich(D-AK) 67)Bennet(D-CO) 68)Gillibrand(D-NY) 69)Manchin(D-WV) 70)Coons(D-DE) 71)Kirk(R-IL) 72)Coats(R-IN) 73)Blunt(R-MO) 74)Moran(R-KS) 75)Portman(R-OH) 76)Boozman(R-AR) 77)Toomey(R-PA) 78)Hoeven(R-ND) 79)Rubio(R-FL) 80)Johnson(R-WI) 81)Paul(R-KY) 82)Blumenthal(D-CT) 83)Lee(R-UT) 84)Ayotte(R-NH) 85)Heller(R-NV) 86)Scott(R-SC) 87)Baldwin(D-WI) 88)Flake(R-AZ) 89)Donnelly(D-IN) 90)Murphy(D-CT) 91)Hirono(D-HI) 92)Heinrich(D-NM) 93)King(I-ME) 94)Kaine(D-VA) 95)Cruz(R-TX) 96)Warren(D-MA) 97)Fischer(R-NE) 98)Heitkamp(D-ND) 99)Hanabusa(D-HI) 100)Kerry Replacement.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	20	4	10	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	221	4	164	T	362
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	97	16	42	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	1	325	171	T	300
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	227/251	161/251	388/502	77.3%