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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:22

Prediction Map
Ernest MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Ernest MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Tos6
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+2+30-2-215419+1
Rep0+2+2-1-2-3527-1
Ind0+1+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic223052
Republican93746
Independent202
pie

Analysis

Here's all the changes for my final prediction.

Arizona: Tossup R -> Lean R
Connecticut: Tossup D -> Lean D
Delaware: 50% D -> 60% D
Indiana: 40% D -> 50% D
Maine: 40% I -> 50% I
Mississippi: 60% R -> 50% R
Montana: 40% R -> 40% D
Nebraska: Strong R -> Lean R
New Mexico: Strong D -> Lean D
North Dakota remains 50% R only because there are only two candidates
Texas: 60% R -> 50% R (would remain 60 if no third party)
Utah: 70% R -> 60% R (would remain 70 if no third party)
Wyoming: 60% R -> 70% R


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 50/56 28/56 78/112 69.6% pie 14 10 325T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 19/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 73 120T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 19 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 40/56 95/112 84.8% pie 48 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 26/33 58/66 87.9% pie 22 0 2T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 2 1 89T
P 2012 Rep Primary 36/52 13/52 49/104 47.1% pie 18 - 75T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 2 3 21T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 29/37 62/74 83.8% pie 1 3 17T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 137 92T
P 2008 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 79 1 100T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 28/33 61/66 92.4% pie 17 2 2
P 2006 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 16 2 6T
P 2004 President 53/56 41/56 94/112 83.9% pie 47 1 66T
Aggregate Predictions 457/501 330/501 787/1002 78.5% pie



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