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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:66

Prediction Map
BushCountry MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
BushCountry MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats


Projection: Democrats hold the Senate. Republicans gain one seat.

First and foremost a couple of obervations are in order about the Senate races this cycle. Many more than usual were competitive or leaning in and out of the competitive realm. Super PACs certainly played a role in this, and Democrats have made assiduous use of them as Obama and other liberals criticism have long been forgotten and Democrats reap the rewards. Republican on paper should've done much better than picking up one seat, and Republican had high hopes for picking up 3 or 4 seats, which earlier this year looked very realistic. But terrible candidates in a number of races doomed them more than other single factor. Akin blew a sure pickup in Missouri. Mourdock cost the GOP a safe seat in Indiana. Mandel in Ohio and Mack in Florida made competitive races but they're going to fall short in what should've been horse races all year.
You can see the evidence of this in the line graph of the race and how it resembles a rollercoaster. At one point I had the GOP picking up 5-6 seats. At other points I projected a Dem gain of 1-2 seats. Now it appears likely that the status quo will prevail with the GOP picking up a seat in closely divided chamber.

No surprise here then: Donnelly is going to the Senate. Mack, Brown and McCaskill are going back to the Senate.

In Maine, again no surprise, Angus King I is going to win big. It was widely suspected that King would caucus with the Democrats but now it hardly matters because the Democrats will hold the Senate with or without him.

In Nevada it appears Heller has the upper hand on Berkeley and will defeat her for a first full term in his own right.

At one point McMahon in Connecticut seemed to have real traction in CT, but Democratic gravity is pulling her down.

Same for Heitkamp in ND, where she was in serious contention but is now poised to lose to Rick Berg R.

In Arizona, Flake has been given a serious scare by Carmona, but Flake should get sufficient Romney coattails to get over the finish line by a few points.

Several races out there continue to be squeakers worth watching closely tonight: Virginia, Wisconsin, Massachusetts and Montana are my closest states, and could probably go either way at the wire.

In Virginia it seems that Kaine has the upper hand on Allen and should win enough support from indys and a few GOP to prevail even on the chance Romney carries the state.

Wisconsin has been see-sawing between Thompson and Baldwin. The race is close but Baldwin should get sufficient Obama coattails on win by a point or two.

In Montana Tester has run about a flawless re-election campaign, but it is not going to be enough as Romney sweeps Montana. Tester will be the lone incumbent this cycle to lose re-election.

Of Course last but not least is the main event: Massachusetts. Brown v. Warren has been an absolute slugfest. Brown needs about 300,000 Obama voters to cross over and support him if he has even a prayer of beating Warren. Since I like underdogs, and I enjoy it when I can predict an upset (election forecasters never go out on limbs) I'm going to say Brown wins by a few thousand votes, and is the biggest story of the evening outside of who wins the White House.

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 23/35 56/70 80.0% pie 46 4 42T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 45 6 226T
P 2016 President 51/56 38/56 89/112 79.5% pie 63 1 17T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 24/34 56/68 82.4% pie 55 1 1
P 2016 Governor 10/12 6/12 16/24 66.7% pie 25 1 25T
P 2014 Senate 33/36 26/36 59/72 81.9% pie 34 1 42T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 31 0 123T
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 646/705 459/705 1105/1410 78.4% pie

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