Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-08-26 Version:14

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	7
Ind	1
Tos	9
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	-1	-1	-2	14	5	19	0
Rep	+1	+1	+2	-2	0	-2	5	3	8	0
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	30	51
Republican	10	37	47
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Washington have large numbers of voters of Scandanavian descent, who tend to vote for Democrats.
Former United States Senator Bob Kerrey is running in Nebraska, and is much better known statewide than State Senator Deb Fischer.
Missouri Republican Senate Candidate Todd Akin made a comment that has alienated some voters.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					245
2023 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	277	49	T	115
2022 Senate	29/35	20/35	49/70	70.0%	6	0	271	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	20/36	53/72	73.6%	5	0	202	T	272
2020 President	48/56	41/56	89/112	79.5%	18	35	434	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%	11	33	337	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	4	35	249	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	1/3	4/6	66.7%	1	4	35	T	192
2018 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%	4	18	246	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	19/36	49/72	68.1%	2	20	241	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	116	40	T	149
2016 President	50/56	31/56	81/112	72.3%	6	1	194	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	13/34	41/68	60.3%	9	1	336	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	3/12	12/24	50.0%	2	1	164	T	279
2014 Senate	29/36	17/36	46/72	63.9%	11	1	273	T	382
2014 Governor	24/36	10/36	34/72	47.2%	6	1	289	T	300
2012 President	55/56	40/56	95/112	84.8%	15	13	314	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	14/33	43/66	65.2%	14	72	221	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	4/11	15/22	68.2%	2	107	131	T	228
2010 Senate	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	15	0	181	T	456
2010 Governor	26/37	12/37	38/74	51.4%	3	78	248	T	312
2008 President	50/56	28/56	78/112	69.6%	3	240	574	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	13/33	43/66	65.2%	2	240	303	T	407
2007 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	147	102	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	3	8	402	T	465
2006 Governor	28/36	11/36	39/72	54.2%	1	183	261	T	312
2004 President	48/56	33/56	81/112	72.3%	7	9	1142	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	702/817	403/817	1105/1634	67.6%