Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:6

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	23
Rep	8
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+2	+4	0	-2	-2	15	4	19	+2
Rep	0	+2	+2	-2	-2	-4	4	2	6	-2
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	23	30	53
Republican	8	37	45
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

11/5/2012--Final: Democrats 55, pick ups in Mass, Indiana, Nevada and Maine(assumes King caucuses with Dems). No small thanks to the two lulus GOP nominated in Indiana and Missouri. Dems squeak by in Wisconsin and Montana, but Heitkamp in SD probably falls just short. Watch Nevada: Dems over-perform the polls (Obma in 08, Reid in 10), and Reid's turnout machine will be in full force. Every election has at least one surprise; this is mine.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	/56	/56	/112	%					682
2020 Senate	/35	/35	/70	%					422
2020 Governor	/11	/11	/22	%					292
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	6	0	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	5	2	56	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	8	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	4	0	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	3/12	12/24	50.0%	2	0	164	T	279
2014 Senate	31/36	22/36	53/72	73.6%	5	0	158	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	15/36	45/72	62.5%	3	1	145	T	300
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	8	1	182	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	20/33	51/66	77.3%	6	1	94	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	1	5	T	228
2010 Senate	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	3	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	2	1	91	T	312
2008 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	7	0	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	1	0	96	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	31/52	14/52	45/104	43.3%	2	-	85	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	14/49	5/49	19/98	19.4%	1	-	162	T	235
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	4	0	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	16/36	51/72	70.8%	3	0	122	T	312
2004 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	30	2	14	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	632/734	408/734	1040/1468	70.8%