PredictionsEndorse2012 Senatorial Predictions - ground_x (D-NY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:6

Prediction Map
ground_x MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
ground_x MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem23
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind2
 
Tos5
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+2+40-2-215419+2
Rep0+2+2-2-2-4426-2
Ind0+1+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic233053
Republican83745
Independent202
pie

Analysis

11/5/2012--Final: Democrats 55, pick ups in Mass, Indiana, Nevada and Maine(assumes King caucuses with Dems). No small thanks to the two lulus GOP nominated in Indiana and Missouri. Dems squeak by in Wisconsin and Montana, but Heitkamp in SD probably falls just short. Watch Nevada: Dems over-perform the polls (Obma in 08, Reid in 10), and Reid's turnout machine will be in full force. Every election has at least one surprise; this is mine.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 517
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 6 0 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 26/36 58/72 80.6% pie 5 2 56T372
P 2016 President 50/56 30/56 80/112 71.4% pie 8 0 246T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 4 0 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 3/12 12/24 50.0% pie 2 0 164T279
P 2014 Senate 31/36 22/36 53/72 73.6% pie 5 0 158T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 15/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 1 145T300
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 1 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 1 94T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 2 1 5T228
P 2010 Senate 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 100T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 2 1 91T312
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 7 0 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 1 0 96T407
P 2008 Dem Primary 31/52 14/52 45/104 43.3% pie 2 - 85T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 14/49 5/49 19/98 19.4% pie 1 - 162T235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 4 0 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 16/36 51/72 70.8% pie 3 0 122T312
P 2004 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 30 2 14T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 632/734 408/734 1040/1468 70.8% pie



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