PredictionsEndorse2012 Senatorial Predictions - dporceddu (R-WA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-30 Version:2

Prediction Map
dporceddu MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dporceddu MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem25
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep5
 
Ind2
 
Tos5
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+3+50-1-115520+4
Rep0+1+1-2-3-5415-4
Ind0+1+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic253055
Republican63743
Independent202
pie

Analysis

The Democrats are in a strong position defending a large number of seats in territory that is inconsistently receptive to the party. Indeed, rather than losing seats they seem on track to make gains. Nebraska and North Dakota, written off without incumbents to defend them, are proving fickle ground for the GOP this year, while demographic shifts give Democrats an emerging advantage in Nevada and Arizona. Finally, morally reprehensible comments about rape expressed by candidates in Missouri and Indiana leave independents flocking to otherwise unpopular Democrats.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 30/35 23/35 53/70 75.7% pie 1 1 224T305
P 2020 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 1 6 502T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 20/35 51/70 72.9% pie 1 4 241T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 6 51T293
P 2018 Senate 32/35 22/35 54/70 77.1% pie 1 1 106T483
P 2018 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 1 3 205T372
P 2016 President 44/56 21/56 65/112 58.0% pie 3 1 624T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 2 0 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 16 119T279
P 2014 Senate 33/36 22/36 55/72 76.4% pie 4 3 122T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 15/36 45/72 62.5% pie 6 3 145T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 31 98T153
P 2012 President 55/56 51/56 106/112 94.6% pie 2 17 1T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 2 7 20T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 7 24T228
P 2010 Senate 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 2 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 2 5 59T312
P 2008 President 54/56 43/56 97/112 86.6% pie 2 5 55T1,505
P 2006 U.S. Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 2 10 133T465
P 2006 Governor 33/36 13/36 46/72 63.9% pie 2 209 192T312
Aggregate Predictions 620/683 411/683 1031/1366 75.5% pie



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