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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-30 Version:2
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Analysis
The Democrats are in a strong position defending a large number of seats in territory that is inconsistently receptive to the party. Indeed, rather than losing seats they seem on track to make gains. Nebraska and North Dakota, written off without incumbents to defend them, are proving fickle ground for the GOP this year, while demographic shifts give Democrats an emerging advantage in Nevada and Arizona. Finally, morally reprehensible comments about rape expressed by candidates in Missouri and Indiana leave independents flocking to otherwise unpopular Democrats.
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