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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-18 Version:96

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Tos10
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+1+1-3-4-713114-6
Rep+3+4+7-1-1-211213+5
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic153247
Republican203050
Independent123
pie

Analysis

Democrats keep the majority in the US Senate by holding onto MI,NH,NC,and LA(Landrieu-D either gets 50.1 percent in November or wins the December runoff since she will end up being the 48th seat if she were to win). Democrats will pick up GA-Nunn-D gets 50.1 percent in November or wins December runoff since she will end up being the 49th seat if she were to win. That leaves us KS- Orman-I wins by a plurality. He decides to caucus with the Democrats after Landrieu-LA and Nunn-GA victories in December.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-18 @ 09:47:09 prediction Map
Republicans lose GA and KS, hold onto KY, and gain MT,WV,SD,AK,AR,CO,and IA- 50 seats. They win the GA and LA runoffs in December- 52 seats Orman-KS decides to caucus with the Republicans- 53 seats. If Brown-NH and Tillis-NC win- 55 seats in a strong GOP wave. <br /> 2016- Democrats lose NV- Reid-D loses to Sandoval-R and CO- Bennett-D loses to Tipton-R- 43D <br /> Democrats will need to pick up 7 seats to regain control of the U.S. Senate assuming Hillary wins in November. Democrats win WI- Feingold-D vs Johnson-R rematch, PA- Kane-D defeats Sestak-D in primary then Toomey-R in the general, IL- Kirk-R loses to either Madigan-D,Hynes-D or Vallas-D, AZ- Giffords/Kelly defeat McCain or the R that defeats McCain in the primary, KY- Paul-R has to retire to run for President. Grimes-D,Conway-D or Edelen-D defeat the likely GOP nominee, FL- Graham,Sink,and Wasserman Schultz, defeats Rubio, and GA- Isakson-R retires or loses in the GOP primary- Nunn-D or Carter-D defeats the likely GOP nominee.

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2014-10-18 @ 14:15:01 prediction Map
Problem- GA runoff is not until January 6, after the Senate organizes. Orman would caucus with the GOP in this scenario, at least initially.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-18 @ 23:15:56 prediction Map
Republicans are likely to regain control of the U.S. Senate in 2014- They hold onto GA,KS,and KY, and pick up MT,WV,SD,AK,AR,and LA. IA and CO are Republican pickups during a strong GOP wave. Democrats will end up with 47 seats. In 2016, Democrats need to hold onto CO and NV and pick up WI,PA,and IL plus AZ and FL


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 20 4 10T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 221 4 164T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 227/251 161/251 388/502 77.3% pie



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