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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-19 Version:97

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-812113-8
Rep+4+4+8-10-111314+7
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133245
Republican223052
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
593425
piepiepie

Analysis

Democrats will have a net loss of 5 to 8 seats. They will lose MT,WV,SD,AK,and AR in November- They lose LA in the December runoff. Orman(KS) has to decide which side he wants to caucus with. Democrats will hold onto MI,NH,and NC, Republicans will hold onto KY and GA. IA and CO are pure Tossups.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-19 @ 22:16:34 prediction Map
Which soon to be US SeƱator is likely to be a one-termer. <br /><br /> Lankford(R-OK) <br /><br /> Capito(R-WV) <br /><br /> Braley(D-IA) <br /><br /> Peters(D-MI)<br /><br /> Cassidy(R-LA)<br /><br /> Gardner(R-CO)<br /><br /> Cotton(R-AR)<br /><br /> Daines(R-MT)<br /><br /> Rounds(R-SD) <br /><br /> Perdue(R-GA) <br /><br /> Orman(I-KS)<br /><br /> Sasse(R-NE)<br /><br /> Sullivan(R-AK) <br /><br /> The answer is Gardner(R-CO) Potential Democratic challengers are Romanoff or Polis.

Last Edit: 2014-10-19 @ 22:39:11

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-19 @ 23:14:13 prediction Map
Democratic victories in 2014<br /> MI-Peters-D 45<br /> NH-Shaheen-D 46<br /> NC-Hagan-D 47 <br /> IA-Braley-D 48 <br /> Before the LA runoff and Orman-KS deciding which party to caucus with. Republicans will end up with 50 seats. Cassidy-R wins the LA runoff.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-20 @ 09:48:18 prediction Map
Since 1994- No more than Two Democratic incumbent US Senators were defeated for re-election.<br /> Sasser-TN and Wofford-PA in 1994<br /> Mosley Braun-IL in 1998<br /> Robb-VA in 2000<br /> Cleland-GA and Carnahan-MO in 2002<br /> Daschle-SD in 2004<br /> Lincoln-AR and Feingold-WI in in 2010<br /> The 2014 Senate Election cycle- 4 Democratic Incumbent US Senators are in danger of losing re-election in November- Pryor-AR,Begich-AK,Udall-CO,and Hagan-NC. <br /> The last time more than 2 Democratic incumbent US Senators was in 1980. <br /> Likely scenario in 2014 is Republicans hold onto vulnerable Republican held seats in GA,KS,and KY, win open Democratic held seats in MT,WV,and SD. Democratic incumbents Pryor-AR and Begich-AK lose re-election. Landrieu-LA has to compete in the December runoff. 50R 49D Landrieu-D loses the December runoff. <br />

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-20 @ 12:13:54 prediction Map
What would happen if Roberts-KS becomes the only incumbent that loses re-election in November? <br /> Democrats lose the open seats in MT,WV,SD,and IA. Democrats will have a net loss of 4 seats 3 if Orman-KS caucuses with the Democrats.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-10-21 @ 15:02:35 prediction Map
How big is the Republican Senate Majority in 2014? <br /> Republicans hold onto KY(McConnell-R defeats Grimes-D by 5), GA(Perdue-R defeats Nunn-D in the January runoff), and KS(if Orman-I wins- he has to decide which party to caucus with. In November, Republicans are favored to Democratic held seats in MT,WV,SD,AR,AK,CO,and IA. 50R 47D and 3(LA,GA,and KS) Cassidy-LA wins the December runoff, Perdue-GA wins the January runoff, Orman-KS caucuses with the Republicans as does King-ME and Manchin-WV. 55R 45D <br /> Democrats chances of regaining control of the U.S. Senate in 2016 is based on Bennet-CO winning re-election against a top tier GOP challenger and Reid-NV winning re-election against Sandoval. Due to higher Democratic turnout in 2016, plus the likelihood of Hillary Clinton carrying both states in 2016, Both are likely to be Democratic holds. Democrats will need to win 5 Republican held seats. <br /> 1)WI- Feingold,Kind,or Burke-D <br /> 2)NH- Hassan,Porter,or Kuster-D <br /> 3)PA- Sestak or Kane-D <br /> 4)IL- Madigan,Vallas,Simon,or Hynes-D <br /> 5)AZ- Giffords or Kelly-D <br /> FL,GA,KY,MO,and NC are expected to be competitive. <br /> Orman-KS and King-ME will caucus with Democrats in 2017 52D 48R <br /> 2018- Vulnerable Democratic held seats are FL,IN,MO,MT,ND,OH,and WI. <br /> Nelson-FL retires, Scott-R is the Republican nominee, Democrats nominate Crist-D(Crist ran for US Senate in 2010 after 1 term as Governor) Dem hold.<br /> Donnelly-IN faces Pence-R (Tossup-D) <br /> McCaskill-MO faces a more Rightwing challenger than she had in 2012- Democratic hold. <br /> Tester-MT and Heitkamp-ND face the at large US House members (Tossup-D) <br /> Brown-OH faces Kasich-R (Tossup-D) <br /> Baldwin-WI faces Walker-R or Ryan-R (Democratic hold) <br /> Democrats will pick up NV- Horsford-D and AZ-Sinema-D. 54D 46R <br /> In 2020 Gardner-CO,Ernst-IA,and Perdue-GA will be vulnerable.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-12-04 @ 13:19:50 prediction Map
2016 US Senate Election<br /> Democrats are favored to hold onto<br /> HI,VT,NY,OR,MD-open,CT,WA,CA-open,and CO. 45 seats.<br /> Republicans are favored to hold onto<br /> AL,AK,AR,GA,ID,IN,IA,KS,KY,LA,ND,OK,SC,SD,and UT. 45 seats. <br /> With NV, Democrats need to win IL,WI,PA,and either NH,OH,or FL. <br /> Without NV, Democrats need to win IL,WI,PA,and NH,OH,or FL plus AZ-McCain-R loses in the GOP primary to a rightwing nutcase who then loses in a General Election to Giffords or Sinema. <br />


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 20 4 10T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 221 4 164T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 97 16 42T
P 2014 Governor 28/36 16/36 44/72 61.1% pie 1 325 171T
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 227/251 161/251 388/502 77.3% pie



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