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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-22 Version:19

Prediction Map
dnul222 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dnul222 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+1+1-4-3-712214-6
Rep+4+3+7-1-1-211213+5
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic153247
Republican203050
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
483216
piepiepie

Analysis

I think that early voting might be helping in Iowa. It will be a tough sell for many of the close seats...only outcome might be to hold 2 out of three of Alaska, COlorado and Iowa plus retain NC and NH while picking up Georgia.<br /> <br /> that would leave a -5 without Kansas, if it is that scenario than Kansas might be a Democratic seat too. giving a 51-49 split...<br /> <br /> However I feel a 49-51 split is more likely.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2014-10-22 @ 07:02:32 prediction Map
Two weeks to go and plenty of voting happening already...does not look good for Dems.<br /> <br />


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 50/56 16/56 66/112 58.9% pie 8 1 614T
P 2016 Senate 32/34 11/34 43/68 63.2% pie 8 0 317T
P 2014 Senate 32/36 16/36 48/72 66.7% pie 19 13 240T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 2 162 97T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 229 1T
P 2012 President 54/56 30/56 84/112 75.0% pie 46 2 630T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 7/33 38/66 57.6% pie 8 3 283T
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 78 157T
P 2012 Rep Primary 26/52 4/52 30/104 28.8% pie 1 - 154T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 11/37 45/74 60.8% pie 50 7 306T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 18/37 52/74 70.3% pie 26 6 143T
P 2008 President 53/56 24/56 77/112 68.8% pie 83 1 625T
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 4 122 281T
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 286 212T
Aggregate Predictions 427/490 179/490 606/980 61.8% pie


Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oklahoma3 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Carolina3 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

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