Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-22 Version:19

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	20
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	17
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	-4	-3	-7	12	2	14	-6
Rep	+4	+3	+7	-1	-1	-2	11	2	13	+5
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	15	32	47
Republican	20	30	50
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	32	16

Analysis

I think that early voting might be helping in Iowa. It will be a tough sell for many of the close seats...only outcome might be to hold 2 out of three of Alaska, COlorado and Iowa plus retain NC and NH while picking up Georgia.<br /> <br /> that would leave a -5 without Kansas, if it is that scenario than Kansas might be a Democratic seat too. giving a 51-49 split...<br /> <br /> However I feel a 49-51 split is more likely.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2014-10-22 @ 07:02:32
Two weeks to go and plenty of voting happening already...does not look good for Dems.<br /> <br />

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

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