PredictionsNews2014 Senatorial Predictions - nyancat (R-CA) ResultsForumPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2014-10-26 Version:8

Prediction Map
nyancat MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nyancat MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind1
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind1
 
Tos0
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-812113-8
Rep+4+4+8-10-111314+7
Ind+10+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133245
Republican223052
Independent123
pie

Analysis

My rating system is based on data compiled from 17 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nyancat (R-CA) 2014-10-26 @ 14:45:10 prediction Map
Oct. 26 Update: Arkansas from Lean R to Strong R, Kansas from Lean R to Lean I ***** Oct. 19 Update: Georgia from Strong R to Lean R, Kansas from Lean I to Lean R, New Hampshire from Strong D to Lean D ***** Oct. 12 Update: (no change) ***** Oct. 5 Update: Alaska from Lean D to Lean R, Colorado from Lean D to Lean R, Kansas from Lean R to Lean I ***** Sep. Update: Iowa from Lean D to Lean R, Kansas from Strong R to Lean R ***** Aug. Update: Colorado from Strong D to Lean D, Iowa from Strong D to Lean D, Michigan from Lean D to Strong D ***** May Update: Louisiana from Lean D to Lean R, Montana from Lean R to Strong R


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 1 0 72T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 1 2 226T
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 2 72T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 25/36 60/72 83.3% pie 10 0 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 10 0 97T
Aggregate Predictions 132/144 81/144 213/288 74.0% pie



Alabama2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Alaska2 Arkansas2 Colorado2 Delaware2 Georgia2 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho2 Illinois2 Iowa2 Kansas2 Kentucky2 Louisiana2 Maine2 Massachusetts2 Michigan2 Michigan2 Minnesota2 Mississippi2 Montana2 Nebraska2 New Hampshire2 New Jersey2 New Mexico2 North Carolina2 Oklahoma2 Oklahoma3 Oregon2 Rhode Island2 South Carolina2 South Carolina3 South Dakota2 Tennessee2 Texas2 Virginia2 Virginia2 West Virginia2 Wyoming2

Back to 2014 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home

© David Leip 2014 All Rights Reserved